I went back and watched Donald Trump’s speech at Davos after the reaction to it spiraled into calls for the 25th Amendment. Having seen it in full, I have to say, that response struck me as pretty overstated. The speech was odd, repetitive, and occasionally sloppy, but it was also entirely familiar. Trump no longer has multiple registers. He speaks the same way at Davos that he does in Greensboro, North Carolina. Rally Trump is the only Trump left.

Yes, he mixed up Greenland and Iceland, and that matters if you believe he is on the brink of ordering military action. But once the Greenland panic subsided and the White House quietly declared the issue settled, the speech reads less like evidence of incapacity and more like evidence of stagnation. Trump told the same tariff stories, did the same accents, and framed global politics through the same lens of personal deal making. That consistency may be unnerving, but it is not new. If anything, the Davos speech underscored how little adaptation Trump feels he needs to make, even on the world stage.

Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

DHS Infighting and the Immigration Power Struggle

The most revealing domestic story was the open tension inside the Department of Homeland Security. Reporting that Kristi Noem and Corey Lewandowski are trying to force out CBP Commissioner Rodney Scott is not just palace intrigue. It exposes a deeper divide between political operatives and career enforcement officials.

On one side are Stephen Miller’s allies, filtering through Noem and Lewandowski, pushing for maximal optics and aggressive deportation numbers. On the other are figures like Tom Homan and Rodney Scott, who argue that certain tactics erode public trust and make enforcement harder, not easier. Homan’s recent media blitz reflects that anxiety. He keeps stressing that deportations are happening, that priorities exist, and that blue state resistance is the real bottleneck. When enforcement professionals feel compelled to publicly justify their competence, it usually means politics has begun to overwhelm operations.

Congress Moves, Barely, and Voters Notice

On Capitol Hill, the House narrowly passed funding for the Department of Homeland Security, overcoming Democratic opposition tied to immigration enforcement concerns. It was not a clean win. Only seven Democrats supported the bill, and the compromises focused on oversight rather than substantive limits on ICE. Still, the broader takeaway is that Congress is moving more bills than expected for late January, even as shutdown deadlines loom.

At the same time, new polling suggests Democrats are regaining momentum. An Emerson College survey shows Democrats leading Republicans by six points on the generic congressional ballot, alongside Trump’s approval sitting well underwater. Six points is not a wave by itself, but it is the range where wave watching becomes justified. Voters are signaling frustration on affordability and foreign policy, and that dissatisfaction is beginning to register in the numbers. If that margin holds or grows, Republicans will not be able to dismiss it as noise.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:03:23 - Davos

00:16:05 - Ryan McBeth on Venezuela

00:43:29 - Update

00:43:58 - DHS Infighting

00:47:18 - DHS Funding

00:48:28 - Midterms Polling

00:50:13 - Ryan McBeth on Iran

01:06:19 - Ryan McBeth on Russia-Ukraine

01:14:44 - Wrap-up

The Greenland situation continues to look more theatrical than existential. To me, leaked private messages from Emmanuel Macron, public frustration from Donald Trump, and hurried diplomatic calls ahead of Davos all point to the same conclusion: this is pressure politics playing out in real time. Trump’s irritation appears rooted less in Greenland itself and more in confusion over European military commitments and mixed signals from allies. That kind of misunderstanding is combustible, but it is also solvable, especially when everyone involved is about to be in the same conference rooms in Switzerland.

Europe’s response, though, has been pretty revealing. Ursula von der Leyen’s declaration that the “old order is dead” was less a threat than a signal of insecurity. Europe wants leverage, and hinting at closer ties with China is one way to gesture at it. My priors remain that this all de-escalates quietly. The United States and Europe trade too much, rely on each other too deeply, and share too many strategic interests for this to spiral beyond bruised egos and tough talk. The laws of economics tend to win these fights.

Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Immigration Enforcement and the Internal Split

Back at home, the most interesting fight is not between parties, but within the Trump administration itself. Tom Homan publicly arguing for better messaging around ICE operations is a tell. He understands that enforcement without a moral argument collapses under public scrutiny. His claim that roughly 70 percent of those arrested are criminals is clearly meant to counter the perception that ICE is acting indiscriminately, especially after the fatal shooting of Renee Good in Minneapolis.

What stands out is who is not making that case. Kristi Noem, who has leaned heavily into the aesthetics of enforcement, has ceded the substance to Homan, and that imbalance matters. When enforcement becomes spectacle, it invites backlash. When it is framed as governance, it can sustain itself politically. The friction between Homan and Noem is, to me, the most important palace intrigue to watch in Trump’s second term.

Britain, Chagos, and Playing to the Future

Speaking of our relationship with Europe, Trump’s sharp criticism of the United Kingdom over the Chagos Islands is best understood through a political lens, not a strategic one. The deal to transfer sovereignty to Mauritius while leasing Diego Garcia back for 99 years is not new, nor was it opposed by Washington initially. Trump’s reversal feels less about the base itself and more about aligning with figures like Nigel Farage, who benefit from confrontation with current European leadership.

This is Trump playing a long game with the people he thinks will be in power next, not the ones currently holding office. Whether that gamble pays off is unclear, but it explains why a relatively obscure British territorial issue suddenly became Truth Social fodder. It is coalition maintenance, not military planning.

Netflix, Warner Bros., and the End of Cable Gravity

Finally, Netflix’s revised all-cash bid for Warner Bros. Discovery does a great job highlighting just how badly legacy media wants scale — and how selectively Netflix wants assets. Netflix does not care about cable networks. It wants intellectual property: Batman, Harry Potter, Game of Thrones. Paramount, by contrast, wants the whole thing in order to fight back against Netflix, and is willing to fight in court to get it.

Hovering over all of this is CNN, which Netflix has no interest in owning and Paramount views as distressed but strategically important. Trump’s recent reposts criticizing Netflix’s cultural dominance suggest he may no longer stay neutral, which adds another unpredictable variable. This fight is not just about entertainment. It is about who controls narrative power in a post-cable world.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:05:47 - Justin and Kirk Bado on Republicans, Greenland, and Trump

00:32:59 - Justin and Kirk Bado on Democratic Midterm Primaries

00:49:20 - Justin and Kirk Bado on Josh Shapiro and 2028

00:59:51 - Steelers Talk

01:13:25 - Update

01:13:48 - Immigration

01:16:30 - Chagos Islands

01:21:16 - Netflix, Paramount, and Warner Bros.

01:25:06 - Interview with Juliegrace Brufke on Congressional Vibes

01:58:28 - Wrap-up

The resignation of Madison Sheahan, an ICE deputy director to run for Congress might look like a routine political move, but it says more about the internal state of immigration enforcement than any press release. ICE is increasingly being pulled between two competing instincts: governing and performing. Tom Homan represents the former, focused on operational reality and risk management. Kristi Noem represents the latter, treating enforcement as a political identity meant to generate headlines and loyalty. Those approaches are not compatible, and when senior officials start eyeing exits into electoral politics, it usually means the institution itself is under strain.

On Capitol Hill, leadership is once again trying to stitch together a spending package just robust enough to avoid a shutdown. Progress exists, but only in the narrowest technical sense. Most discretionary funding is unresolved, and Homeland Security remains the pressure point. That is intentional. Immigration funding is leverage, and no one wants to give it up before extracting political value. The result is a familiar pattern: public urgency, private hesitation, and a quiet hope that the consequences land after the next recess.

Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Meanwhile, a bipartisan proposal to create a strategic reserve of critical minerals is moving forward with little fanfare. It should be getting more attention than it is. Reducing reliance on China for rare earths and other key materials is not a culture war issue. It is basic national security planning. In a Congress addicted to short-term fights, this stood out as an example of lawmakers thinking beyond the next headline or election cycle.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:02:56 - Interview with Anna Gorisch

00:27:17 - Update

00:28:16 - Senate Spending Package

00:29:27 - Madison Sheahan Resignation

00:32:20 - Mineral Reserve

00:33:27 - Interview with Anna Gorisch, con’t

01:13:44 - Wrap-up