What do reality TV show winners, economic collapses, and political upsets have in common? They’re all things Superforecasters could’ve seen coming! Maybe.

In this brain-boosting episode of Biz-Souls, Rona Lewis hands the crystal ball to Jeffrey Hansler as he dives into the insights of ‘Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction’ by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner.

After a recommendation from one of his training participants (who may or may not now have Oracle status), Jeffrey took a deep dive into Tetlock and Gardner’s book — and resurfaced with gems of wisdom anyone can use to sharpen their predictive powers.

Learn why foxes beat hedgehogs (yes, it’s a real metaphor), how probabilistic thinking wins over gut feelings, and what makes superforecasters so… super. From world events to office politics, you'll never look at uncertainty the same way again.

Tetlock and Gardner unpack the fascinating findings of the Good Judgment Project - a research initiative that revealed how certain individuals, dubbed "superforecasters," consistently outperform even intelligence analysts with access to classified information.

Discover how these superforecasters harness open-mindedness, analytical thinking, and a knack for breaking down complex problems to make remarkably accurate predictions. Learn how you can cultivate these skills to enhance decision-making in business and beyond.

And if you're a Biz-Souls binge-listener, this one's a perfect companion to:

Ep. 169: “Positive, Normative, and Positively Normative” — where Jeffrey and Rona explore the psychology behind decision-making and economic forecasting.

Ep. 166: “Truth, Lies, and DOGE” — exploring Nietzsche, narrative, and why humans struggle with truth (hint: it affects forecasting too).

Ep. 165: “Franchise Fiasco” — a forecasting fail in real time when Jeffrey just wanted a footlong sub.

Ep. 167: “Ikigai and AI” — with Michael Woudenberg, tackling polymathic minds and purpose, which, funnily enough, is key to long-term judgment too.

Whether you're a business leader, strategist, or just someone intrigued by the art of prediction, this episode offers a treasure trove of insights. Tune in and elevate your forecasting game!

Because the future may be uncertain—but your next podcast choice isn’t!

#BizSouls #Superforecasting #GoodJudgmentProject #PhilipTetlock #DecisionMaking #PredictTheFuture