Global coffee market summary

• Brazil remains the dominant force shaping global coffee markets, with production forecasts for the 2026/27 season reaching as high as 71.9 million bags according to the USDA, while private estimates suggest even larger harvests. Strong output, combined with a weaker Brazilian real, is encouraging exports and contributing to expectations of a global coffee surplus of around 10 million bags. However, the potential development of El Niño during the critical flowering period later in the year could threaten the 2027/28 Arabica crop. At the same time, relatively low ICE Arabica inventories continue to provide an underlying layer of market uncertainty.
• In Vietnam, coffee exports increased by 7.9% between January and May 2026, reaching 922,000 metric tons. Production is projected to rise by 6% to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons, supported by favorable growing conditions, improved farming practices, and continued investment in productivity. As the world's leading Robusta supplier, Vietnam's expanding output is expected to reinforce pressure on global coffee prices.
• Indonesia faces a more challenging outlook. Coffee production is forecast to decline by 8% in the 2026/27 season to 11.38 million bags after excessive rainfall disrupted flowering and fruit development across key growing regions. Green coffee exports are expected to fall by 11% to 7 million bags, reducing the country's contribution to global supply and partially offsetting growing production elsewhere.
• Colombia is projected to increase coffee production by 7% to 13.4 million bags in 2026/27, strengthening global Arabica availability. Higher output, combined with steady domestic consumption, positions the country as an important stabilizing force within the premium coffee segment.

Global Coffee Market Summary

• Brazil is entering a record production season for 2026/27, with the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service projecting output at 71.9 million 60-kilogram bags, a 14.1% increase driven by favorable weather and the positive phase of the biennial cycle. Arabica output is up 25% to 47,500,000 bags, while robusta is marginally lower at 24,400,000 bags, a 2.4% decline. Total exports are projected to rise 29.6% to 49,070,000 bags. Despite the volume growth, farm gate prices have deteriorated sharply, with Arabica down 28% and robusta down 46% year on year as of April 2026, compressing producer incomes. The National Coffee Economy Defense Fund has allocated BRL 7,370,000,000 to support crop management and marketing across the sector.
• Vietnam recorded export growth of 15.8% year on year for January to April 2026, reaching 810,000 metric tons, continuing momentum from a 17.5% export increase in 2025. Production for 2025/26 is forecast at 1,760,000 metric tons (29,400,000 bags), a 6% increase and a four-year high, reinforcing Vietnam's central role in global robusta supply.
• Indonesia is facing an 8% production decline for 2026/27 to 11,380,000 bags, with robusta accounting for 10,000,000 bags. Excessive rainfall in 2025 disrupted flowering and fruit set in Southern Sumatra. Green coffee exports are expected to fall 11% to 7,000,000 bags, with infrastructure damage inflating domestic transport costs and constraining export flows.
• Colombia is projecting a 7% production increase for 2026/27 to 13,400,000 bags, providing a partial counterweight to supply volatility elsewhere.
• At the global level, Stonex is forecasting a surplus of 10,000,000 bags for 2026, the largest in six years, driven primarily by Brazil's record output and Vietnam's strong performance. Near-term risks include El Nino impacts on subsequent crop cycles, logistical bottlenecks in key exporting countries, currency volatility, and elevated shipping costs linked to Strait of Hormuz disruptions.

Global Coffee Market Summary

• Vietnam's Central Highlands saw domestic coffee prices ease by VND 800 per kilogram, with provincial prices ranging from VND 87,200 per kilogram in Lam Dong to VND 87,800 per kilogram in Dak Nong. The narrowing spread across provinces alongside the overall price decline points to softening farm-gate conditions and compressed margins for growers.
• Brazil is projecting a record 2026 harvest of 66.7 million 60-kilogram bags, up 18% year on year, according to CONAB. This would represent approximately 37% of global coffee supply. Arabica is the primary driver, with output forecast at 45.8 million bags, supported by a favorable biennial cycle and expanded productive area. Logistical constraints at the Port of Santos remain a key risk to export execution given the volume involved.
• Futures markets weakened across both major contracts during the period. London Robusta for July 2026 declined 1.34% to $3,772 per ton, while New York Arabica for July fell 1.51% to 269.85 cents per pound. The moves reflect broader supply-side pressure stemming from Brazil's anticipated volume and global market uncertainty.
• The USDA projects a modest increase in both global production and consumption for the period. Brazil's dual-varietal dominance across Arabica and Robusta positions it as the central variable in global supply management, with port throughput capacity at Santos a critical factor in whether projected export volumes can be realized efficiently.