Global Coffee Market Weekly Summary

• Brazil is on course for a record coffee harvest in 2026/27, with Marex Group and Stonex projecting output of between 75,000,000 and 75,900,000 bags, representing approximately 15.5% year-on-year growth. CONAB, Brazil's national crop agency, offers a more conservative estimate of 66,200,000 bags but still characterizes it as a record season. The growth is driven primarily by Arabica production, projected to increase by 23.2%. Despite this strong production outlook, export performance has weakened notably, with volumes falling 27% in February and 31% in March year on year, a decline attributed largely to currency appreciation dampening seller incentives.
• Vietnam's robusta sector continues to expand, with first quarter 2026 exports rising 14% year on year to 585,000 metric tons. The 2025/26 production forecast stands at a four-year high of 1,760,000 metric tons (approximately 30,800,000 bags). This sustained output growth is exerting consistent downward pressure on global robusta prices. Logistical disruptions stemming from the Strait of Hormuz are inflating freight and insurance costs, adding an operational layer of complexity to Vietnam's export operations.
• Arabica coffee futures are exhibiting a persistent bearish trend, with the May 2026 contract falling below key moving averages. Critical support is positioned near 288.65 cents per pound, with further declines potentially targeting a range of 265 to 268 cents. Rising Arabica inventory levels are eroding scarcity premiums and reinforcing a cautiously bearish medium-term pricing structure. Globally, Rabobank estimates total coffee production for 2026/27 at approximately 180,000,000 bags, an increase from prior years. Global exports show a modest downturn, and market dynamics continue to be shaped by the interplay of strong supply forecasts, inventory accumulation, and logistical cost pressures. Currency fluctuations and producer selling behavior in Brazil remain key variables for short-term price volatility.

Global Coffee Market Weekly Summary

• The global coffee market is contending with an emerging oversupply dynamic, as record production forecasts from Brazil and continued export strength from Vietnam push inventory levels higher against a backdrop of only gradually rising demand.
• Brazil's 2026/27 season production forecast has reached 75,900,000 bags, a 15.5% year-on-year increase, with Arabica output alone projected to rise 23.2%. Despite this exceptional production outlook, Brazilian export volumes in February declined 27% year-on-year to 2,300,000 bags, a result of a stronger Brazilian real and reduced shipment activity. This points to a temporary tightening in Brazilian coffee availability on international markets rather than any structural supply constraint. Domestically, Brazilian producers are increasingly adopting precision irrigation techniques to manage irregular climatic conditions during critical fruiting stages, a long-term yield stabilization strategy rather than a near-term output accelerator.
• Vietnam continues to post strong results in Robusta production and trade. Coffee exports grew 17.5% year-on-year in 2025 to 1,580,000 metric tons, with further growth anticipated in the 2025/26 season. Price volatility in the Central Highlands has been partially offset by recent recoveries. Beyond volume, Vietnam is actively pursuing quality differentiation through initiatives aimed at establishing distinct standards for Vietnamese Robusta, signaling a strategic shift toward value-focused positioning in global markets.
• At the global level, the combination of Brazilian and Vietnamese supply growth is contributing to a meaningful oversupply condition. ICE futures pricing for Arabica reflects ongoing fluctuations driven by currency movements and logistical disruptions, including those stemming from the Strait of Hormuz closure, which are providing intermittent and temporary price support. However, these factors are set against record global production and inventory levels, sustaining a broadly bearish market outlook. Both leading producers are increasingly directing investment toward advanced agricultural technology and quality enhancement, indicating a wider industry transition from volume-driven growth toward more sustainable, value-oriented strategies.

This episode examines a global coffee market.

• Vietnam is a central focus, where domestic coffee prices in the Central Highlands have risen by 400 to 500 dong per kilogram, lifting farm gate prices to roughly 91,500 to 92,700 dong per kilogram. The increase reflects stronger buying interest and expectations of tighter nearby supply as inventories from the previous harvest continue to decline. Firm robusta futures in London are reinforcing this strength, suggesting that supply concerns in the physical market remain a key source of support.
• The episode also highlights strong export momentum. Coffee exports in January and February 2026 were up 14 percent year over year, supported by solid robusta production. That resilience stands in contrast to arabica futures in New York, which have weakened as the market reacts to more comfortable supply expectations. The result is a market where robusta remains relatively firm while arabica is under more pressure.
• Brazil is presented as a major driver of the arabica outlook. Although softer arabica prices could weigh on near-term shipment revenue, Brazil’s 2026 coffee crop is projected to reach record levels, with gains in both arabica and conilon production. The report notes that reduced green coffee exports and shifting tariff conditions for soluble coffee exports to the United States could affect short-term trade dynamics, but overall production and export capacity still point to a strong underlying performance. Brazil’s soluble coffee sector is also showing resilience through higher February exports and stronger domestic consumption.
• Overall, the episode presents a coffee market defined by imbalance between its two major varieties. Robusta is benefiting from tight supplies and sustained demand, especially in Vietnam and other key producers, while arabica is contending with heavier production forecasts and growing stock levels, particularly in Brazil.

This episode highlights current developments and market forecasts in the global coffee sector.

• In Brazil, coffee production forecasts for 2025 show notable upward revisions. Conab increased its estimate by 2.4 percent to 56.54 million bags, while Stonex projects a much larger output of 70.7 million bags, driven by a 29 percent rise in Arabica production, now expected at 47.2 million bags. Despite these gains, Brazil’s November green coffee exports dropped by 27 percent year over year, totaling 3.3 million bags. Severe dryness in key areas like Minas Gerais poses a threat to Arabica crop development and flowering.
• Vietnam’s coffee sector continues its strong performance, with robusta output for 2025–26 revised upward to 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags), marking a 6 percent increase and a four-year high. This growth aligns with a 39 percent surge in November exports and a 14.8 percent year-to-date export increase. The rise in supply is exerting downward pressure on global robusta prices.
• Regulatory developments have also influenced market sentiment. The European Union’s decision to delay its deforestation regulation has temporarily eased compliance pressures for South American and Southeast Asian exporters, supporting ongoing supply flows and contributing to a more bearish market outlook.
• On a global scale, the United States Department of Agriculture forecasts a 2.5 percent increase in total coffee production for 2025–26, reaching 178.68 million bags. Ending stocks are projected to rise by 4.9 percent. However, global exports have dipped slightly by 0.3 percent year over year, indicating a disconnect between production growth and trade activity. Currency fluctuations, especially involving the Brazilian real, add further complexity to export incentives and pricing strategies.

This episode covers the latest developments in the global coffee market.

• Vietnam continues to dominate the robusta market, with the 2025 harvest projected at 1.76 million tons, a 10% year-over-year increase and the highest output in four years. Favorable weather conditions supported this growth, and with only 10% of the harvest completed, expectations are high for further supply increases. Coffee exports for the first eleven months rose by 13.4%, reaching $7.88 billion, reinforcing Vietnam’s strong market position and contributing to persistent downward price pressures.
• Brazil presents a mixed outlook. While 2026–27 projections forecast a 29% year-over-year increase in total coffee production to 70.7 million bags, current season estimates have been revised downward to 55.2 million bags due to rainfall deficits in Minas Gerais, potentially affecting arabica cherry and flowering development. Nevertheless, the rollback of U.S. tariffs and the European Union’s delay of its deforestation regulation are expected to improve export competitiveness and market stability.
• Arabica prices remain under limited support. Although tighter inventories and adverse weather in Brazil offered temporary price stabilization, they were insufficient to counterbalance rising supply expectations from both Vietnam and Brazil. The deferral of EU environmental trade regulations also helped maintain robusta flow from Southeast Asia, preventing major disruptions in global supply.
• The broader coffee market continues to experience bearish sentiment, with robust supply forecasts outweighing demand recovery. Regulatory shifts, weather volatility, and evolving export policies remain key factors influencing the current and future landscape of coffee trade.

This week’s coffee market report.

• Brazil is forecast to significantly increase coffee production for the 2026–2027 season, reaching an estimated 70.7 million bags, a 29 percent rise from the previous year. This is largely driven by favorable weather and a projected Arabica yield of 47.2 million bags. However, Brazil’s national supply company has slightly revised its 2025 Arabica forecast downward by 4.9 percent, with total production now expected at 55.2 million bags. The recent lifting of a 40 percent U.S. tariff on Brazilian coffee exports could boost trade, although 2025 export volumes have dropped 20.3 percent compared to 2024. Despite this, elevated international prices are helping sustain export value.
• Vietnam’s Robusta sector is also gaining momentum, with a projected 6 percent production increase pushing output to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons. While weather has been largely favorable, heavy rains in key areas like Dak Lak have caused harvest delays that could create short-term supply challenges.
• On the global front, coffee markets are sending mixed signals. The temporary postponement of the European Union’s deforestation regulation has eased pressure on exporters, while a slight 0.3 percent dip in global coffee exports signals continued tight supply conditions. The United States Department of Agriculture forecasts a 2.5 percent increase in global coffee production and a nearly 5 percent rise in ending stocks for the 2025–2026 season, suggesting some future supply relief.
• Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Arabica coffee futures have shown price volatility influenced by tariff changes and production forecasts. March 2026 futures reflect a market caught between easing short-term concerns and expectations of higher future output. Technical indicators suggest the market remains volatile but constrained within defined price ranges, requiring careful navigation of both immediate and long-term trends.

This episode covers key shifts in the global coffee market.

• In Brazil, Arabica futures found support amid low inventory levels and a 40 percent U.S. tariff on Brazilian coffee, which caused a 52 percent year-over-year decline in exports to the United States from August to October. This short-term scarcity is supporting speculative price movements. However, Stonex projects Brazil’s 2026–2027 crop will reach 70.7 million bags, a 29 percent increase, fueled by favorable weather in key growing regions like Minas Gerais. This expected supply growth may exert downward pressure on prices moving forward.
• Vietnam’s coffee sector continues to expand, with Robusta exports rising 13.4 percent year to date, totaling 1.31 million metric tons. Production for the 2025–2026 season is forecasted to increase by 6 percent, potentially reaching a 10 percent gain with favorable weather, which could ease global supply constraints and further moderate prices.
• In the United States, tariff policy continues to shape market dynamics. While a 10 percent reciprocal tariff on various commodities has been lifted, the 40 percent national security tariff on Brazilian coffee remains in place, restricting imports and influencing futures pricing. A change in this policy could significantly alter trade flows.
• Colombia, by contrast, has benefited from recent tariff changes. The removal of reciprocal tariffs on Colombian coffee has boosted its competitive edge, supporting a three-decade high in output at 14.8 million bags, up 17 percent year over year. This has strengthened Colombia's market share in the United States and globally.
• Despite current inventory tightness, the global coffee market is expected to stabilize. A 2.5 percent rise in overall production for the 2025–2026 season, alongside increasing stock levels, may counterbalance short-term supply limitations and help moderate speculative price volatility.

This episode offers a thorough overview of the global coffee market as of November 16, 2025.

• In Brazil, the world’s top coffee producer, adverse weather associated with La Niña has led CONAB to revise the 2025 Arabica crop downward by 4.9 percent to 35.2 million bags. Despite this setback, a strong rebound is forecast, with Stonex projecting total output to rise by 29 percent to 70.7 million bags in the next harvest, of which 47.2 million are expected from Arabica varieties. Potential tariff reductions in the United States could influence Brazilian export flows and reshape trade dynamics, particularly since tariffs have previously supported U.S. domestic prices by limiting imports.
• Vietnam is also poised for expansion, with coffee exports growing 13.4 percent year over year from January to October, totaling 1.31 million metric tons. Looking ahead, the country’s 2025–2026 output is expected to grow by 6 to 10 percent, contingent on continued favorable conditions. This projected growth in Robusta supply could increase global downward pricing pressure.
• In the United States, the market remains sensitive to regulatory shifts. Speculation about cutting tariffs on Brazilian coffee has drawn attention, as U.S. supply chains rely heavily on Brazil. Any tariff changes would significantly affect pricing and inventory strategies, especially with ongoing constraints in Brazilian exports already impacting stock levels.
• Globally, coffee production is projected to reach a record 178.68 million bags for the 2025–2026 cycle, driven by increased Robusta production in both Brazil and Vietnam. While Arabica output is expected to dip slightly, overall supply will rise. However, this outlook faces risks from climate volatility tied to La Niña and from trade uncertainties in major markets such as the United States, which could disrupt pricing stability and export strategies.