This episode examines a global coffee market.

• Vietnam is a central focus, where domestic coffee prices in the Central Highlands have risen by 400 to 500 dong per kilogram, lifting farm gate prices to roughly 91,500 to 92,700 dong per kilogram. The increase reflects stronger buying interest and expectations of tighter nearby supply as inventories from the previous harvest continue to decline. Firm robusta futures in London are reinforcing this strength, suggesting that supply concerns in the physical market remain a key source of support.
• The episode also highlights strong export momentum. Coffee exports in January and February 2026 were up 14 percent year over year, supported by solid robusta production. That resilience stands in contrast to arabica futures in New York, which have weakened as the market reacts to more comfortable supply expectations. The result is a market where robusta remains relatively firm while arabica is under more pressure.
• Brazil is presented as a major driver of the arabica outlook. Although softer arabica prices could weigh on near-term shipment revenue, Brazil’s 2026 coffee crop is projected to reach record levels, with gains in both arabica and conilon production. The report notes that reduced green coffee exports and shifting tariff conditions for soluble coffee exports to the United States could affect short-term trade dynamics, but overall production and export capacity still point to a strong underlying performance. Brazil’s soluble coffee sector is also showing resilience through higher February exports and stronger domestic consumption.
• Overall, the episode presents a coffee market defined by imbalance between its two major varieties. Robusta is benefiting from tight supplies and sustained demand, especially in Vietnam and other key producers, while arabica is contending with heavier production forecasts and growing stock levels, particularly in Brazil.