Global Coffee Market Weekly Summary

• Brazil is on course for a record coffee harvest in 2026/27, with Marex Group and Stonex projecting output of between 75,000,000 and 75,900,000 bags, representing approximately 15.5% year-on-year growth. CONAB, Brazil's national crop agency, offers a more conservative estimate of 66,200,000 bags but still characterizes it as a record season. The growth is driven primarily by Arabica production, projected to increase by 23.2%. Despite this strong production outlook, export performance has weakened notably, with volumes falling 27% in February and 31% in March year on year, a decline attributed largely to currency appreciation dampening seller incentives.
• Vietnam's robusta sector continues to expand, with first quarter 2026 exports rising 14% year on year to 585,000 metric tons. The 2025/26 production forecast stands at a four-year high of 1,760,000 metric tons (approximately 30,800,000 bags). This sustained output growth is exerting consistent downward pressure on global robusta prices. Logistical disruptions stemming from the Strait of Hormuz are inflating freight and insurance costs, adding an operational layer of complexity to Vietnam's export operations.
• Arabica coffee futures are exhibiting a persistent bearish trend, with the May 2026 contract falling below key moving averages. Critical support is positioned near 288.65 cents per pound, with further declines potentially targeting a range of 265 to 268 cents. Rising Arabica inventory levels are eroding scarcity premiums and reinforcing a cautiously bearish medium-term pricing structure. Globally, Rabobank estimates total coffee production for 2026/27 at approximately 180,000,000 bags, an increase from prior years. Global exports show a modest downturn, and market dynamics continue to be shaped by the interplay of strong supply forecasts, inventory accumulation, and logistical cost pressures. Currency fluctuations and producer selling behavior in Brazil remain key variables for short-term price volatility.