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Bitcoin Unlocked

De : Andrew Keir
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  • A daily letter about bitcoin & the future of money

    unlocked.substack.com
    Andrew Keir
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    • #136 Going Dark

      #136 Going Dark
      Aug 24 2022
      “War... Huh…What is it good for? Absolutely nothing, say it again!“Good Morning Everyone,German electricity prices are hitting fresh all time highs and at the same time Poland’s largest chemicals company has halted production of nitrogen fertilisers and reduced output of ammonia due to soaring gas prices. As we know you can print more fiat, but you can’t print more energy. The complacency that exists in respect to the energy crisis really is profound to witness and it’s hard not to see this situation becoming exponentially worse. German Electricity:Dutch Natural Gas:While Germany is definitely toward the eye of the storm, most others throughout Europe are entangled in this mess and depending on each countries individual energy production capabilities, should expect to be impacted in similar ways to varying degrees. This image below from Javier Blas shows electricity costs throughout Europe with many nations paying in excess of €600 per MWh. Where as pre 2020 anything above €75-100 was considered expensive! Incredible. If you find this valuable, Share it.This tweet from @MacroAlf helps hammer the point home even further if it weren’t already brutally clear.This madness is a direct result of insane and catastrophic centrally planned energy policy and it very likely leads to a widespread famine throughout Europe. It also has the potential to be the event that breaks the European Union apart and kicks off monumental conflicts between the neighbouring states, and in turn potentially, the world, as the effects of this begin to really hit home for individuals and families.Absolutely everything is downstream of energy. Once energy costs increase enough the predictable dominos begin to fall. We are starting to see this play out with Poland’s fertilizer production being halted. The dominos do not stop there, however. Nitrogen fertilizer is necessary for food production. If the production of this continues to be impacted or more production comes off-line, this naturally leads to less supply being available. It means the price goes up as there is less supply to meet demand. This leads to reduced food production which only further amplifies the problem. And would trigger further disruptions to the already shambolic food supply chains and even more acute price increases for consumers. Once again, i see a negative feedback loop and the scent of Moloch at play.If you find it valuable, Share it.This forces governments even further into a corner; the likely output of this is rationing!It’s hard to believe that over the last 30 years we’ve gone from having widespread abundant and reliable energy to now staring down the barrel of the most phenomenal energy crisis of our life time. Having written about the potential of a mass starvation event eight months or so ago, it’s absolutely bizarre to see this playing out, almost like it is some kind of train wreck happening in slow motion. On one hand I’m bewildered as to to why governments would not pivot and adjust course more evasively in the face of what, at this point, appears to be the most likely outcome, but then i’m reminded it is just humans at scale following the paths of least resistance. It is simply the incentives manifesting into human behaviour.This problem is not likely to be fixed by the people who have created it. This is a systems level issue, and the issue has been cause by the people with the admin privileges. Awarding them further administrative privileges in the face of this would be akin to the definition of insanity - which is to do the same thing, and expect a different outcome.This issue will not be solved by following morons in perceived positions of power off the cliff. It is certainly not solved by printing more fiat money, which will almost certainly happen in the event rationing and price controls are initiated to attempt to treat the symptoms instead of the root cause, in the typical naive interventionist fashion we have come to expect. Personal responsibility and a bitcoin standard is at the core of our solution. Adopting a monetary standard free of those who have either a bizarre desire to intentionally drive us toward catastrophe, or who are simply cognitively deficient and should be appropriately ignored. We must focus on building circular economies based on the superior monetary standard bitcoin provides and cultivate community. Connecting producers direct with consumers in a peer-to-peer fashion, and work to be as energy and food independent as possible in an effort to insulate ourselves, our families and our communities from the actions of malevolent or mere incompetent actors.You never want to wait to buy the option when you need it. You need to buy the option before you need it!Community is the ultimate hedge against uncertainty. Hope you have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.AKPublished Block Height: 750 848 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or ...
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      5 min
    • #135 Digital Panopticon

      #135 Digital Panopticon
      Aug 17 2022
      “The panopticon is a type of institutional building and a system of control designed by the English philosopher and social theorist Jeremy Bentham in the 18th century. The concept of the design is to allow all prisoners of an institution to be observed by a single security guard, without the inmates being able to tell whether they are being watched.Although it is physically impossible for the single guard to observe all the inmates' cells at once, the fact that the inmates cannot know when they are being watched means that they are motivated to act as though they are being watched at all times. Thus, the inmates are effectively compelled to regulate their own behaviour.”— WikipediaGood Morning Everyone,We have discussed many times, the dynamic between money and power, and highlighted the risk and harm caused by centralising such power. This is the fundamental problem bitcoin solves. It is money without a center. And it is money that provides the most fair issuance possible and avoids the common pitfall to disproportionately reward any one entity over another. That is not to say distribution is even or equal. Certainly not. Distribution of anything is never going to be even, and to attempt to do so is at its core a deeply unfair act. To evenly distribute something amongst a cohort of people means that individuals are not rewarded for deploying more effort, for being more skilled, more competent and capable and ultimately doing a superior job than someone else. And likewise for those who are underperforming they would have no incentive to work harder or learn new skills as there would be no reward available incentivising them to do so. This would dissolve and distort the incentives that would otherwise exist and it would seem to be the case from past historical examples, to produce highly undesirable outcomes. At the same time, if instead of distributing evenly, certain individuals or entities were disproportionately favoured and awarded an outsized percentage of issuance due to their proximity to the center of supply, this would install a deeply unfair standard at the core protocol level. If applied to the technology of money this unfair issuance creates a catastrophic dynamic where those who are closest to the center of that distribution have outsized power over all others within the network and this dynamic only accelerates over time.This last example describes the issuance of Ethereum. As Nik Bhatia explains in the below clip. Where bitcoin has no center and has no preferential issuance and you can simply buy, mine or earn bitcoin at a market rate and by doing work; Ethereum does have a center, and It is more like a company than anything resembling a truly decentralised protocol. To quote Nik (who also has a great paid substack publication called The Bitcoin Layer)“Ethereum began in 2015 with a pre-mine. This is a sale of Ethereum tokens in exchange for bitcoin. 72,000,000 Ethereum tokens were issued in this pre-mine. 60m of the coins were sold to the investment public and 12m coins were given to insiders. The supply of Ethereum today is above 120m, which means that almost 60% of today’s total supply was part of that pre-mine process. Data shows that 40% of that pre-mine went to the top 100 customers giving us indication that the ownership of Ethereum is highly centralised. This resembles the issuance of an equity in which the majority of the shares go to the management and the ownership.”The bottom line is the two (bitcoin & ethereum) are just not the same. Most Ethereum supporters seem to either not know this, simply not care, or not understand the significance of it. However it is fundamentally important to grasp. As I mentioned earlier, such an issuance schedule is at it’s core deeply unfair, especially when you consider the profound impact of money on our lives, and with Ethereum posturing to move to a Proof-of-Stake system in September, this significance is only acerbated further whereby those with the most amount of eth staked have an outsized voting right and thus influence on the network. We already have this system. It’s called fiat, and ethereum is just a shinier new version of it. Nothing close to the paradigm shifting technology of bitcoin.Many in the community have been surprised at the SEC’s allowance of protocol’s like Ethereum, when they have been clearly and unequivocally exposed as what are considered securities. This is not to suggest I want the SEC or any government to do anything, just that one can only be curious why they would not have enforced their mandate, in the face of the obvious. At the end of the day we don’t need any central body to assert their authority - the market should be able to work itself out. I have postulated for some time, that I believe the reason for this is because this experimentation of permissioned, centralised “crypto digital assets“ provide central banks and government with the single best opportunity to obtain the ...
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      11 min
    • #134 You'll Need To Rob The Bank If You Want Your Money

      #134 You'll Need To Rob The Bank If You Want Your Money
      Aug 15 2022
      Good Morning Everyone,There was an incident last week in Lebanon that is worthy of further enquiry. I’ve spoken about it with many people offline, but hadn’t written about it at all and feel it’s important to do so. It’s important first of all to retrace our steps a little before we do, so we can maintain the thread through time, and obtain a clear recognition of the order of events leading to this most recent situation. Eight months ago i first wrote about the situation in Lebanon where the local political money was failing. Basic food and energy costs were skyrocketing due to the rapid loss in value of the Lebanese Pound. Some four months later, the situation in Lebanon again hit my radar having descended further in chaos with the Government & Central Bank capitulating and waving the white flag. The Government & Central bank announced they were bankrupt.Both these letters are worth quickly revisiting if you missed them to get a strong sense of the how the dynamic has evolved over time. Both are linked below.This sequence of events has lead to the most recent development, where a man has been pushed to absolute breaking point. The man tried to withdraw his money from the bank in downtown Beirut and that request was denied. The man is said to have had $210,000 held with the bank, and had requested to withdraw $50,000 to cover medical expenses for his fathers surgery. After being denied to withdraw his “own money”, the man took control of the bank with a firearm taking the bank staff hostage in the process. This hostage situation lasted 7hours and was eventually resolved with him being said to be given $30,000 and he exited with no further escalation or injury. Outside the bank the man was being celebrated as a hero for his actions, and offers a glimpse into the level of distain that exists amongst the citizens of Lebanon and the deeply unstable dynamic currently in the country. The thread below by Joyce Karam covered the situation with many updates if you would like more details.This unfortunate situation highlights how fundamentally toxic fiat really is. He literally had to rob the bank to get his own money!This man doesn’t want to have to rob a bank. He simply wants what is his. He had a significant amount of funds, and like most, doesn’t realise the true IOU nature of banking. His father is unwell and he simply wants to support his family. The fact that he could be pushed in such a way where he would be willing to hold people hostage at gun point serves to highlight how pathologically insane this fiat system really is. This is the level to which fiat is corrupting us and the societies in which we are a part. This system is so morally and ethically derelict at its core. It is programmed into the fiat system at the base layer. Where bitcoin operates based on the most profound truth, fiat operates on falsehoods and lies. It is a system that is predicated on deception. That anyone would consciously choose a system that harms us so deeply is absolutely unfathomable. This man should never have been forced into this situation, nor should any of the beautiful people of Lebanon or any other nation that have fallen victim to fiat. And we haven’t even considered the implications such actions could have on ones family and the higher order effects which could follow.So many people still cannot see the problem, and thus they cannot see how bitcoin fixes this, but this is going to change. This disease and the symptoms we exhibit as a part of it are not exclusive to Lebanon. Lebanon is just further down the road compared to some others. This is a kind of de-civilization and these symptoms can be expressed in every country that is on a fiat standard. Every country that uses a money with no anchor to physical reality where it empowers a small few to control this technology are over time destined for a similar fate. But where fiat fails, Bitcoin will succeed. If this man understood the predatory nature of banking. If he knew about fractional reserve banking and understood that once you hand over control of your money, once you relinquish custody, that it fundamentally ceases to be yours - he most likely would never have given it the bank in the first place. There would have been no need for him to be pushed to the extent he was, and take the level of risk he was forced to take for him and his family. There would have been no violence toward others, and no one would have ever been taken hostage. But when the system of banking works on the surface, it appears to work. It is not obvious that once the broader dynamic changes and we enter adversarial conditions these IOU’s are unlikely to be redeemable. That they become worthless. If you find it valuable, Share itThe people of Lebanon are learning this lesson right now, with 80% of the population now living in poverty. At the core of this is a deeply flawed system of incentives. A system we have called money. But this system is doing more harm than it ...
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      9 min
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