Gratuit avec l’offre d'essai
Écouter avec l’offre
-
Summary: Tetlock and Gardner's Superforecasting Summary: The Art and Science of Prediction
- Lu par : Don Moffit
- Durée : 21 min
Impossible d'ajouter des articles
Échec de l’élimination de la liste d'envies.
Impossible de suivre le podcast
Impossible de ne plus suivre le podcast
Acheter pour 3,91 €
Aucun moyen de paiement n'est renseigné par défaut.
Désolés ! Le mode de paiement sélectionné n'est pas autorisé pour cette vente.
Vous êtes membre Amazon Prime ?
Bénéficiez automatiquement de 2 livres audio offerts.Bonne écoute !
Description
This is a summary of Tetlock and Gardner's New York Times best seller: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?
In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people - including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer - who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters".
In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods.