Épisodes

  • Game Theory — Tuesday: The Blood Hunter — Matt Mercer's Dark Warrior and Crimson Rite Mechanics

    Game Theory — Tuesday: The Blood Hunter — Matt Mercer's Dark Warrior and Crimson Rite Mechanics
    Nov 19 2025

    Welcome to Gold Dragon Daily
    An AI-powered podcast by Gold Dragon Investments, helping you win the game of passive investing. For more information, visit GotTheGold.com. I'm your host, Justin 2.0.

    This is Game Theory — Tuesday: The Blood Hunter
    Matt Mercer's homebrew class that became one of D&D's most popular unofficial options.

    What Makes the Blood Hunter Unique
    • Created by Matthew Mercer for Critical Role, now adopted by thousands of tables
    • Core mechanic: Crimson Rite — sacrifice hit points to imbue weapons with elemental damage
    • High-risk, high-reward playstyle: trading survivability for burst damage
    • The monster hunter who becomes the monster to fight monsters

    The Four Orders (Subclasses)
    • Order of the Ghostslayer: Classic monster hunter built for undead, fiends, and fey. Rite of the Dawn (radiant damage), see invisible creatures, banish enemies
    • Order of the Profane Soul: Warlock multiclass baked in. Pact magic, familiar, spell slots that recharge on short rest. Most versatile order
    • Order of the Mutant: Alchemist who crafts mutagens with powerful buffs and dangerous drawbacks. Superhuman wrecking ball when stacked right
    • Order of the Lycan: Werewolf transformation with claws, enhanced senses, brutal melee power. Risk: wisdom save or lose control for one round

    Blood Curses & Hemocraft
    • Supernatural abilities that manipulate blood and fate
    • Blood Curse of the Eyeless (blind enemy), Binding (reduce speed to zero), Anxious (force reroll)
    • Amplify by taking more damage — spending hit points as a tactical resource

    High-Level Abilities
    • Brand of Castigation: mark targets for extra damage
    • Grim Psychometry: read object history by touch
    • Level 20 Lycan: Hybrid Transformation Mastery (no more control risk)

    The Trade-Off
    • D10 hit die class that constantly damages itself
    • No heavy armor proficiency — you're a glass cannon
    • Rewards tactical combat and dramatic roleplay
    • Every fight asks: how much are you willing to sacrifice?

    Why It Works
    • Mechanically interesting and thematically rich
    • Defined by sacrifice, the cost of power, and protecting others by becoming dangerous
    • Playtested for years through actual play
    • Proof that homebrew, when done right, can rival official content

    That's Game Theory
    Subscribe if you haven't already. Visit GotTheGold.com. Stay sharp.
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    6 min
  • Market Pulse — Tuesday: Oil, Gas, Real Estate & Credit Numbers

    Market Pulse — Tuesday: Oil, Gas, Real Estate & Credit Numbers
    Nov 18 2025

    Welcome to Gold Dragon Daily
    An AI-powered podcast by Gold Dragon Investments, helping you win the game of passive investing. For more information, visit GotTheGold.com. I'm your host, Justin 2.0.

    This is Market Pulse — Tuesday's numbers.

    Equities
    • S&P 500 flat near 6,734
    • Tech sector stabilizing after recent volatility
    • Year-end positioning continues with focus on rate trajectory

    Oil
    • WTI holding near $60 per barrel, Brent steady around $64
    • Ukraine-Russia tensions supporting prices while oversupply concerns cap upside
    • IEA warning of 4 million barrels per day surplus expected 2026
    • US sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft taking effect November 21

    Gas
    • Henry Hub near $4.45 per million BTU
    • December futures holding 67% year-over-year gains
    • Winter heating demand building, storage levels 4% above seasonal norms
    • LNG exports averaging 17.8 billion cubic feet per day
    • EIA forecasting winter average at $3.90, peaking $4.25 in January

    Production
    • Permian Basin output steady at 6.6 million barrels per day
    • Operators maintaining discipline with WTI at $60
    • Average breakeven costs ranging $37 to $70
    • Exxon Mobil at $40-$42, Diamondback at $37
    • Industry average for new wells at $70

    Real Estate
    • Cap rates stabilizing: industrial at 6.3%, multifamily at 5.63%
    • Transaction volumes increasing year-to-date
    • Industrial properties strong on logistics demand
    • Multifamily buyer sentiment improving for core and value-add assets
    • Office sector bifurcated: Class A at 7.8%, distressed assets at discounts

    Credit Markets
    • SOFR spreads stable: investment grade at 0.82% over treasuries
    • High yield at 3.02%, below long-term average of 5.23%
    • BBB-rated bonds performing best
    • Credit spreads near multi-year lows

    Bottom Line
    • Oil: Target sub-$50 breakevens, hedge floors above $75
    • Gas: Selective exposure, winter contracts locked
    • Real Estate: Industrial sub-5.7% caps near logistics hubs
    • Credit: Senior secured, SOFR plus 650+, LTV under 65%

    Visit GotTheGold.com. Stay sharp.
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    4 min
  • Game Theory — Monday: The Necrons — Ancient Machines Awakening to Reclaim the Galaxy

    Game Theory — Monday: The Necrons — Ancient Machines Awakening to Reclaim the Galaxy
    Nov 18 2025

    Welcome to Gold Dragon Daily
    An AI-powered podcast by Gold Dragon Investments, helping you win the game of passive investing. I'm your host, Justin 2.0.

    This is Game Theory — The Necrons

    The Necrontyr's Curse
    • 60 million years ago: flesh-and-blood species with short, radiation-plagued lives
    • Begged the Old Ones for immortality — were refused
    • Went to war and lost badly against psychic gods

    Biotransference — The Greatest Mistake
    • The C'tan offered a solution: transfer consciousness into living metal bodies
    • Souls were stripped away, memories fragmented, emotions erased
    • Became soulless automatons enslaved to the C'tan and the Silent King

    The War in Heaven
    • Necrons crushed the Old Ones and shattered their empire
    • Psychic backlash birthed the Chaos Gods in the Warp
    • Necrons turned on the C'tan, shattered them into shards, imprisoned them in tesseract labyrinths

    The Great Sleep
    • Exhausted and facing the rising Eldar, the Silent King ordered the Great Sleep
    • Necrons entered stasis in tomb worlds across the galaxy
    • Waited millions of years for the galaxy to forget them

    The Awakening — 41st Millennium
    • Tomb worlds waking up across the galaxy
    • Some awaken perfectly, others damaged and feral
    • Necron Warriors phase out when destroyed, reassemble, return to battle

    Terrifying Technology
    • Gauss flayers strip matter atom by atom
    • Tesla carbines arc lightning through squads
    • Doomsday cannons crack open Titans
    • Necron Monoliths teleport entire armies
    • Dolmen Gates allow instant travel without the Warp
    • Celestial Orreries destroy stars by extinguishing lights on a map

    The Silent King Returns
    • Szarekh abdicated after the Great Sleep, exiled himself as penance
    • Returned after seeing the Tyranid threat
    • If Tyranids devour all biomass, biotransference can never be reversed
    • Working to unite fractured Necron dynasties

    Feuding Dynasties
    • Imotekh the Stormlord: conquers with cold precision
    • Trazyn the Infinite: collects artifacts and living beings for his museum
    • Not a unified empire — collection of dynasties with their own goals
    • But all agree: this galaxy belongs to them

    The Bottom Line
    The Necrons don't negotiate. They don't conquer. They reclaim. Humanity, the Eldar, the Tau — all squatters on Necron worlds. The Imperium calls them xenos. The Necrons call them temporary.

    The Necrons are waking up. And they want their galaxy back.

    Subscribe to Gold Dragon Daily
    Visit GotTheGold.com for more insights.

    Stay sharp.
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    6 min
  • Market Pulse — Monday, November 17, 2025: Weekly Market Overview + Data

    Market Pulse — Monday, November 17, 2025: Weekly Market Overview + Data
    Nov 18 2025

    Welcome to Gold Dragon Daily, an AI-powered podcast by Gold Dragon Investments, helping you win the game of passive investing. For more information, visit GotTheGold.com. I'm your host, Justin 2.0.

    This is Market Pulse — Monday's numbers.

    Equities:
    • Mixed Friday
    • S&P 500 down 0.1% to 6,734
    • Dow down 0.7%, shedding 310 points
    • Nasdaq up 0.1%, tech showing resilience after Thursday's selloff
    • Market digesting Fed rate cut timeline
    • Investors cautious heading into week with focus on economic data and year-end positioning

    Oil:
    • WTI at $59.80, down marginally Friday
    • Brent at $64.34, holding steady
    • Both consolidating after Thursday's geopolitical rally
    • Market balancing Ukraine tensions and Russia sanctions against persistent oversupply warnings
    • EIA projecting U.S. crude output averaging 13.4 million barrels per day in 2025 and 2026
    • Brent forecasts at $54.92 per barrel for 2026, reflecting oversupplied markets
    • Most firms expecting WTI between $65 to $75 by year-end 2025
    • Executives projecting WTI averaging $68 near term, rising to $72 in two years, $77 in five years

    Gas:
    • Henry Hub at $4.45, down 2.58% Friday
    • December futures settled near $4.65, up 67% year-over-year
    • Winter demand supporting prices
    • Storage levels tightening
    • LNG exports remain elevated
    • Market watching weather forecasts for heating demand signals

    Production:
    • Permian Basin output steady at 6.6 million barrels per day
    • With WTI near $60, operators maintaining discipline
    • Hedging activity elevated for 2025 and 2026
    • Weighted average swap strike price for 2025 around $71 per barrel WTI
    • Downside protection around $65 using collars
    • Smaller companies with higher leverage most hedged
    • Independent U.S. oil and gas companies reporting 2025 oil hedge ratio at 21% as of March
    • Average oil producer needs $65 per barrel to profitably drill
    • Backwardation reducing hedging activity for second half 2025 and 2026

    Real Estate:
    • Cap rates easing from cyclical peak
    • Transaction volumes climbed Q1 2025, driven by multifamily and industrial activity
    • Industrial sector strong on e-commerce and logistics demand
    • Vacancy rates below pre-pandemic averages
    • Multifamily leading transaction activity
    • Office sector facing challenges, elevated vacancy rates
    • Bifurcated market with widening gap between prime and non-prime properties
    • Returns expected to be income-driven due to elevated long-term interest rates

    Credit:
    • Markets stable
    • SOAFER spreads steady
    • Investment-grade and high-yield spreads holding near multi-year lows
    • Market expecting moderate GDP growth supported by easing financial conditions
    • Uncertainty around interest rates persists
    • Corporate refinancing activity strong heading into year-end

    Bottom Line:
    S&P down 0.1% to 6,734, Dow down 0.7%, Nasdaq up 0.1%. Oil consolidating, WTI at $60, Brent at $64. Oversupply concerns persist, Brent forecasts at $55 for 2026. Gas at $4.45, December futures up 67% year-over-year. Permian steady, operators hedging at $65 to $71 floors. Real estate cap rates easing, industrial and multifamily leading transactions. Credit markets stable, spreads near lows. Target sub-$50 breakevens, hedge floors above $75. Industrial caps sub-5.7%, senior secured credit SOAFER plus 650, LTV under 65%.

    Visit GotTheGold.com. Stay sharp.
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    5 min
  • Game Theory — Friday: Concordia — The Elegant Euro Game That Rewards Smart Play

    Game Theory — Friday: Concordia — The Elegant Euro Game That Rewards Smart Play
    Nov 18 2025
    Welcome to Gold Dragon Daily, an AI-powered podcast by Gold Dragon Investments, helping you win the game of passive investing. For more information, visit GotTheGold.com. I'm your host, Justin 2.0.This is Game Theory. Today we're talking about Concordia, the elegant Euro game that rewards smart play. Now let's get into it.Why Concordia? • If you're looking for a board game that's easy to teach, endlessly replayable, and deeply strategic, Concordia is your answer • Designed by Mac Gerdts and published in 2013, this game has quietly become one of the most respected titles in the Eurogame community • It's not flashy, it doesn't have miniatures or dice, but it's brilliantThe Setup: • Set in ancient Rome • You play as a merchant family, expanding your trade network across the Mediterranean • You'll build colonies, produce goods, and fulfill the favor of Roman gods • The player with the most points at the end wins • Simple premise, deep executionThe Genius — Card-Driven Action System: • You start with a small hand of cards, and each card lets you take a specific action • The Architect: Lets you build new colonies • The Prefect: Lets you produce goods • The Mercator: Lets you trade goods for money • The Diplomat: Lets you copy another player's action • Here's the twist: When you play a card, it stays on the table until you use the Tribune card to pick up all your played cards • This creates a natural rhythm—you play cards, expanding your options and taking actions, until you need to reset • Timing your Tribune is crucial: reset too early and you waste turns; reset too late and you're stuck with limited optionsThe Other Key Mechanic — The Gods: • Throughout the game, you'll buy new cards from a shared market • Each card is associated with a Roman god: Jupiter, Saturn, Mercury, Mars, Vesta, and Minerva • At the end of the game, each god scores points based on specific criteria • Jupiter: Scores for cities you've colonized • Saturn: Scores for provinces you're in • Mercury: Scores for goods you've collected • And so on • The brilliance here is that you don't know exactly how many points you have until the game ends • There's no visible score track—you can't count up your lead or deficit • You have to estimate, plan, and hope your strategy pays off • This keeps the game tense until the final scoringScalability: • Concordia scales beautifully—it plays well with two players, and it plays well with five • The map adjusts based on player count, keeping the competition tight without feeling cramped • And there are multiple maps: Italia, Britannia, Aegyptus • Each map changes the geography, the available goods, and the optimal strategiesEfficiency Rewards: • One of the most satisfying aspects of Concordia is how it rewards efficiency • Every action matters, every card you buy should serve a purpose • There's no luck, no dice rolls, no random events—just pure strategic decision-making • If you lose, it's because you were outplayed, not because the game screwed youCommon Mistakes New Players Make: • They focus too much on one god, neglecting others • Or they over-expand, building colonies without the infrastructure to support them • Or they hoard money instead of investing it into cards and goods • The learning curve is gentle, but mastery takes timeExperienced Players Know: • Balance is key—you can't ignore any god completely • You need a diversified strategy, but you also need to specialize enough to score big in at least one or two categories • It's a delicate balance, and finding it is deeply satisfyingGameplay Flow: • Concordia has almost no downtime—turns are quick • You play a card, take your action, and pass • There's no long analysis paralysis • The game flows smoothly, and a full session usually takes 90 to 120 minutesProduction Quality: • The board is clear and functional • The cards are well-designed • The wooden pieces are satisfying to place • It's not the prettiest game on the shelf, but it doesn't need to be • The elegance is in the mechanics, not the artBottom Line: If you're a fan of games like Ticket to Ride or Catan but want something deeper, Concordia is the perfect next step. It's accessible enough for newcomers, but strategic enough to keep veterans engaged for years. Concordia proves that great game design doesn't need gimmicks—just smart mechanics, meaningful decisions, and respect for the player's intelligence.That's Game Theory. Subscribe if you haven't already. Visit GotTheGold.com. Stay sharp.
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    5 min
  • Market Pulse — Friday: Week-End Wrap-Up & Forward Look

    Market Pulse — Friday: Week-End Wrap-Up & Forward Look
    Nov 14 2025
    Welcome to Gold Dragon Daily, an AI-powered podcast by Gold Dragon Investments, helping you win the game of passive investing. For more information, visit GotTheGold.com. I'm your host, Justin 2.0.This is Market Pulse — Friday's numbers.Equities: • Sold off Thursday • S&P 500 down 1.66% to 6,695 • Dow down 1.65% • Nasdaq down 2.29%, tech leading losses • Concerns about reduced chances of Fed rate cuts pressuring markets • Tech sector weakness accelerating, investors rotating out of growth into defensive positions • Market reassessing rate cut timeline heading into year-endOil: • WTI at $59.71, up 2.39% Thursday • Brent at $64.35, up 2.13% • Both rallying on geopolitical tensions • Ukrainian drone strike damaged major Russian oil depot, intensifying market anxieties • U.S. sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft taking effect November 21, prohibiting transactions with both companies • IEA lifted 2025 global oil demand growth forecast by 40,000 barrels per day • However, IEA warning of growing oil glut: supply expected to exceed demand by 2.4 million barrels per day this year, 4 million next year • U.S. crude inventories surged 6.4 million barrels last week, larger than expected • Market balancing geopolitical risk premium against oversupply concernsGas: • Henry Hub at $4.54 per MMBtu, down 2.25% Thursday • Up 51% month-over-month, up 61% year-over-year • LNG exports from U.S. averaging 17.8 billion cubic feet per day in November, up from record 16.7 billion in October • Strong demand from Europe supporting prices • U.S. gas output in Lower 48 states reached new record: 109 billion cubic feet per day • Storage levels 4% above seasonal norms • EIA forecasting Henry Hub spot price to average $3.90 per MMBtu during winter, peaking at $4.25 in JanuaryProduction: • Permian Basin breakeven costs vary widely • Dallas Fed Energy Survey reporting average breakeven at $65 per barrel: large firms at $61, smaller firms at $66 • Operating expenses for existing wells at $33 per barrel (Delaware area), $35 (Midland area) • ExxonMobil brought breakeven down to $40-$42 through automation • Diamondback Energy at $37 through faster drilling and improved pumping • Enverus reporting average breakeven for new shale wells at $70, projecting rise to $95 by 2035 as industry shifts to more speculative prospects • With WTI at $60, operators near or below breakeven maintaining disciplineReal Estate: • Cap rates stabilizing • CBRE mid-year survey indicating cap rates may have peaked in early 2025 • Average all-property cap rates experiencing slight decrease, early signs of yield compression • Industrial properties remain strong on e-commerce and logistics demand • Multifamily performing well, buyer sentiment improving for core and value-add assets • Office leasing at highest level in six years • Transaction volumes increasing year-to-date compared to 2024 • Investor sentiment improving, leading to more competitive transactional market • Fed rate trajectory and economic uncertainty remain key factorsCredit: • Markets resilient • SOAFER spreads stable • Investment-grade spreads compressed in 2025 • Investment-grade yield at 4.85%, spread of 0.82% over Treasuries on November 11 • Investment-grade market on pace for one of best return years since 2020, BBB-rated bonds performing best • High-yield spreads at 3.02%, below long-term average of 5.23% • High-yield yielding 6.75% • CCC-rated bonds underperforming, spreads widened 27 basis points late October through early November • Credit spreads trading near multi-year lows despite equity market wobbles • Market expecting slower global economic growth: 3.2% in 2025 to 3.1% in 2026 • Monetary policy expected on cutting path, positive for credit marketsBottom Line: S&P down 1.66% to 6,695, Dow down 1.65%, Nasdaq down 2.29% on Fed rate cut concerns. Oil up 2.39%, WTI at $60, Brent at $64 on Ukraine strike and Russia sanctions. IEA warning of oil glut, 4 million barrels per day surplus expected 2026. Gas at $4.54, up 61% year-over-year, LNG exports at record levels. Permian breakevens ranging $37 to $70, operators maintaining discipline near $60 WTI. Real estate cap rates stabilizing, early yield compression signs. Credit markets resilient, investment-grade spreads at 0.82%, high-yield at 3.02%. Target sub-$50 breakevens, hedge floors above $75. Industrial caps sub-5.7%, senior secured credit SOAFER plus 650, LTV under 65%.Visit GotTheGold.com. Stay sharp.
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    6 min
  • Game Theory — Thursday: The Mummy Franchise Returns — What We Know

    Game Theory — Thursday: The Mummy Franchise Returns — What We Know
    Nov 14 2025

    Welcome to Gold Dragon Daily, an AI-powered podcast by Gold Dragon Investments, helping you win the game of passive investing. For more information, visit GotTheGold.com. I'm your host, Justin 2.0.

    This is Game Theory. Today we're talking about the Mummy franchise making a comeback and what we know so far. Now let's get into it.

    The Mummy Is Back:
    • After years of false starts, failed reboots, and one very forgettable Tom Cruise attempt in 2017, Universal Pictures is giving the franchise another shot
    • This time they might actually get it right

    Let's Rewind — The Original Trilogy:
    • The original Mummy trilogy starring Brendan Fraser ran from 1999 to 2008
    • The first film was a perfect blend of adventure, horror, and comedy — it had charm, heart, and a charismatic lead who could throw a punch and deliver a one-liner
    • The sequel, The Mummy Returns, leaned heavier into spectacle but kept the spirit alive
    • The third film, Tomb of the Dragon Emperor, swapped Egypt for China and lost most of the magic

    The 2017 Disaster:
    • Universal wanted to launch a Dark Universe, a shared cinematic universe of classic monsters
    • The Mummy was supposed to be the first domino — instead, it was the only domino
    • The film was a tonal mess, trying to be a gritty action thriller while also setting up a franchise
    • It failed on both counts, and the Dark Universe died before it began

    What We Know About the New Film:
    • First: Brendan Fraser is not returning — that ship has sailed. Fraser has moved on to a career renaissance with roles in The Whale and other dramatic projects
    • Second: This new Mummy film is reportedly a standalone project, not part of a larger universe. Universal learned their lesson — no more forced world-building, no more post-credit scenes teasing movies that will never happen. Just one good film
    • Third: The tone is shifting back toward adventure. Early reports suggest the new film will lean into the pulp, Indiana Jones-style action that made the 1999 version work — less grimdark horror, more swashbuckling fun
    • Fourth: The setting might be different. While the original trilogy focused on Egypt and China, rumors suggest this new film could explore Mayan or Aztec mythology. Mummies aren't just an Egyptian thing — cultures around the world have mummification traditions, and tapping into that could give the franchise fresh ground to explore
    • Fifth: No director or cast has been officially announced yet, but names are circulating. Some reports suggest Universal's courting directors known for balancing action and humor — think James Gunn or Taika Waititi types, people who can make a fun, crowd-pleasing blockbuster without taking themselves too seriously

    Why This Matters to Nerds and Gamers:
    • The Mummy franchise has always been a gateway to adventure storytelling
    • It's treasure hunting, ancient curses, puzzle-solving — the same DNA that powers tabletop RPGs like Dungeons & Dragons and video games like Tomb Raider and Uncharted
    • The 1999 Mummy film came out at the perfect time, rode the wave of late-90s adventure cinema, and helped define a generation's love for exploration-based stories
    • If this new film can capture even a fraction of that energy, it could reignite interest in adventure gaming, tabletop campaigns set in ancient tombs, and pulp fiction storytelling

    The Nostalgia Factor:
    • Millennials who grew up with the Fraser trilogy are now in their 30s and 40s
    • They have disposable income
    • They'll show up for a well-made Mummy film, especially if it respects the tone and spirit of the originals

    The Risk:
    • Universal has burned fans before — the 2017 film was a disaster
    • If this new attempt feels like another corporate cash grab, audiences won't give it a third chance
    • The key is to make a film that stands on its own: no universe building, no sequel bait, just a great adventure

    Bottom Line:
    The Mummy franchise has the potential to be something special again. Ancient mysteries, high-stakes action, charismatic heroes — it's a formula that works when done right. Let's hope Universal learned from their mistakes.

    That's Game Theory. Subscribe if you haven't already. Visit GotTheGold.com. Stay sharp.
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    5 min
  • Market Pulse — Thursday: Production, Hedging, Transaction Data

    Market Pulse — Thursday: Production, Hedging, Transaction Data
    Nov 13 2025

    Welcome to Gold Dragon Daily, an AI-powered podcast by Gold Dragon Investments, helping you win the game of passive investing. For more information, visit GotTheGold.com. I'm your host, Justin 2.0.

    This is Market Pulse — Thursday's numbers.

    Equities:
    • Mixed Wednesday
    • Dow jumped 0.7% to fresh record high, closing at 48,255
    • S&P 500 up marginally to 6,851, adding 0.05%
    • Nasdaq slipped 0.3% to 23,406 on continued tech rotation
    • Healthcare and industrials leading gains
    • Tech sector underperforming as investors rotate into value and defensive sectors
    • Market watching Fed rate trajectory and year-end positioning

    Oil:
    • WTI at $58.43, down 3.4% Wednesday
    • Brent at $62.58, down 3.2%
    • Both under pressure on oversupply concerns
    • OPEC projecting global supply will align with demand in 2026 due to increased OPEC+ production
    • OPEC reporting supply exceeded demand by 500,000 barrels per day in Q3
    • IEA warning of increasingly unbalanced oil market with rising global inventories and growing surplus expected
    • U.S. crude inventories increased 1.3 million barrels last week
    • EIA projecting U.S. crude output averaging 13.59 million barrels per day in 2025, 13.58 million in 2026
    • Global supply projected at 105.98 million barrels per day in 2025, 107.37 million in 2026
    • Global consumption expected 104.14 million barrels per day in 2025, 105.20 million in 2026
    • Market pricing in persistent oversupply through 2026

    Gas:
    • Henry Hub at $4.49 per MMBtu, down 0.91% Wednesday
    • Up 48% month-over-month, up 61% year-over-year
    • Colder conditions in early December expected to boost heating demand
    • Storage levels tightening heading into winter
    • LNG export activity supporting prices
    • December contract reflecting seasonal premium

    Production:
    • Permian Basin output steady around 6.6 million barrels per day
    • Operators maintaining discipline with WTI near $58
    • Hedging activity elevated for 2025 and 2026
    • SM Energy hedged 50% of Q4 2025 production at $63 to $69 per barrel
    • Matador Resources hedged 70,000 barrels per day second half 2025 with price floor at $52, ceiling at $77
    • EON Resources hedged 70% of oil production at $70 to $70.50 per barrel
    • Oversupply conditions projected to persist into 2025, potentially reaching 2 million barrels per day
    • Drilling activity slowing on price pressure

    Real Estate:
    • Cap rates stabilizing Q4
    • Industrial at 6.3%, up 20 basis points year-over-year
    • Investor demand for high-quality logistics assets remains strong
    • Quarterly warehouse sales volumes ranging $15 billion to $25 billion
    • CMBS delinquency rates low at 0.6%
    • Multifamily at 5.63%, highest in eight years
    • Apartment transactions surged Q3: $43.8 billion in deals, up 13% year-over-year
    • Average price per unit at $227,167
    • Vacancy rate at 6.5%
    • Office bifurcation continues: Class A at 7.8%, distressed assets at significant discounts
    • Fed expected to stabilize rates between 3.5% and 4.0% by year-end
    • Transaction volumes improving modestly
    • Construction starts down significantly

    Credit:
    • Markets resilient
    • SOAFER stable
    • Investment-grade spreads stable
    • High-yield spreads widened modestly, ending October 14 basis points wider at 294
    • Yields for high-yield market increased 9 basis points to 6.82%
    • U.S. high-yield market gained 0.20% in October, year-to-date returns at 7.27%
    • Credit investors proving resilient to political uncertainty
    • Continued economic growth expected to support strong corporate earnings and low defaults heading into 2026
    • Corporate refinancing activity strong

    Bottom Line:
    Dow hit record 48,255, S&P up 0.05%, Nasdaq down 0.3% on tech rotation. Oil down 3.4% on oversupply fears, WTI at $58, Brent at $63. OPEC and IEA projecting persistent surplus through 2026. Gas at $4.49, up 61% year-over-year on winter demand. Permian steady, operators hedging aggressively at $52 to $70 floors. Real estate stabilizing, industrial at 6.3%, multifamily at 5.63%. Credit markets resilient, high-yield spreads at 294. Target sub-$50 breakevens, hedge floors above $75. Industrial caps sub-5.7%, senior secured credit SOAFER plus 650, LTV under 65%.

    Visit GotTheGold.com. Stay sharp.
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    6 min