AMP Chief Economist Shane Oliver joins host Marius Mariton to unpack the latest economic developments, from ethical investing and shareholder activism to Australia's inflation problem. They discuss whether environmental, social and governance (ESG) concerns have taken a back seat amid economic uncertainty, and whether investors can push companies to change their practices.

Oliver breaks down the latest inflation figures, what is driving price increases and why the Reserve Bank of Australia could raise interest rates again. He also explains why rate hikes take time to affect households and the wider economy, and how rising government debt, inflation and geopolitical uncertainty are putting upward pressure on global bond yields.

The conversation turns to US earnings, the AI boom and growing investor concerns about technology spending. Oliver also shares his views on social media's potential to cause financial harm, from encouraging risky investment decisions to spreading harmful content. Finally, he discusses how AMP uses humour on social media to make economics more accessible and why better economic literacy matters.

Diana Mousina, deputy chief economist at AMP, joins Marius Mariton to discuss AI investment, China's economy, global bond yields and the cost of having an extra kid.

Mousina examines NextDC's share price fall after delays to a Melbourne data centre expansion, explaining how electricity supply and community opposition can constrain infrastructure development. While she remains positive on AI demand, she warns investors to be selective as technology stocks may struggle to maintain their recent growth pace.

The conversation turns to China's economic growth and its importance to Australia. Despite weakness in China's property sector, Mousina says demand for Australian commodities remains supported by exports and industrial activity. She also explains why rising global bond yields and government debt could weigh on equity markets.

Mousina discusses findings from AMP's Retirement Pulse survey, which show younger Australians reconsidering plans to have children amid housing costs, childcare expenses and employment uncertainty. She explores the limits of intergenerational wealth transfers and potential ways governments could better support families.

Finally, Mousina assesses Australia's economic outlook, including housing affordability, productivity and living standards. While she does not expect a recession, she anticipates soft growth in the coming years and argues GDP per capita offers a clearer picture of how households are faring.

On this episode of Relative Return Insider, host Marius Mariton speaks with My Bui, economist at AMP, about the AI investment boom and whether the current pace of spending can continue.

Bui is optimistic about AI's longer-term productivity benefits, but says hyperscalers' capital expenditure is growing far faster than revenues.

She expects spending on chips, data centres and energy infrastructure to keep rising for another two to three years before slowing around 2028–29. They also discuss the risks around funding, energy supply and whether AI companies can generate enough revenue to justify the huge amounts being invested.

The conversation then turns to the US midterm elections, the Federal Reserve and Australia's inflation challenge. Bui expects the Democrats to make gains in the House, potentially creating more uncertainty for markets, while she sees the Fed taking a measured approach to interest rates. In Australia, she argues the RBA faces a tougher inflation battle because productivity growth remains weak. With demand still too strong relative to supply, higher interest rates are being used to slow spending — although Bui believes the RBA may be getting close to the end of its hiking cycle.

Finally, Marius and Bui discuss rising bond yields and the recent pressure on French government bonds, including whether the problems could spread to other highly indebted European countries. They also look at what a more inflationary world means for investors and retirees, with Bui arguing that Australian retirees are generally better positioned than many might expect. From AI and data centres to central banks, government debt and retirement savings, the episode explores the economic forces shaping markets in Australia and globally.

In this episode, host Marius Mariton speaks with AMP Chief Economist Shane Oliver about Australia's latest interest rate hike and what it means for households, inflation and the economy. With the RBA cash rate now at 4.6%, Oliver explains why the central bank has moved to reinforce its inflation-fighting credibility, and why mortgage holders are bearing more of the burden than households benefiting from higher deposit rates.

Oliver also discusses whether Australia is entering a period of stagflation, with slower economic growth and inflation likely to remain above the RBA's target for some time. He also looks at housing, with dwelling prices falling from their recent highs, and discuss whether the correction could deepen. Oliver also shares his view on the likelihood of another RBA hike in November or December, pointing to weakening household spending, labour market conditions and falling building approvals.

The conversation then turns offshore, covering US inflation, the Federal Reserve, rising global bond yields and what the changing interest-rate environment means for investors. Oliver also discusses the Australian dollar, the impact of AI demand on inflation and construction costs, and the end of card surcharge fees. Finally, Marius asks Oliver about his long weekend plans, and discovers that sailing, rather than rugby or AFL, is more his thing.

Relative Return Insider: Jobs, AI and the forces shaping markets

AMP Chief Economist Shane Oliver joins Olivia Grace-Curran to discuss the latest economic and market developments, including Australia's labour market, interest rate outlook and what the RBA's next move could mean for households and investors.

The conversation covers US-China trade tensions, the outlook for global markets, geopolitical risks and the impact of energy markets, before turning to the economic effects of major sporting events and the pressure facing Australian households from higher interest rates and petrol prices.

In this episode of Relative Return Insider, Olivia Grace-Curran sits down with AMP Chief Economist Shane Oliver.

From NVIDIA's massive AI investment in Australia and the possibility that data centres could soon rival mining as a source of investment, to the RBA's increasingly hawkish stance and the risk of interest rates climbing to 15-year highs, Shane breaks down what investors need to watch next.

Meanwhile, the ASX has taken a hit as oil prices surge and bond yields climb, while geopolitical tensions put further pressure on markets. Could the correction have further to run?

Shane also weighs in on the Australian property market and mortgage stress, explains why the Japanese yen could be poised for further gains, and tackles one of the biggest questions in crypto: does Bitcoin actually have fundamental value - or is it simply becoming "digital gold"?

Australia's economy is slowing, house prices are falling and yet inflation is proving stubbornly difficult to tame. So does the RBA really have to raise rates again?

On this episode of Relative Return Insider, Olivia Grace-Curran sits down with AMP Chief Economist Shane Oliver to unpack the latest economic data and what it means for households, investors and markets.

Shane reveals why he thinks another rate hike is increasingly likely, why September could be back on the table, and why two consecutive hikes could trigger a much deeper housing downturn - and potentially even a recession.

Plus, Shane reveals the key economic numbers and central-bank decisions that could move markets next.

In this episode of Relative Return Insider, AMP chief economist Shane Oliver joins host Olivia Grace-Curran to unpack how key macro forces are shaping markets in Australia and the US. They explore what shifts in jobs data and unemployment mean for the RBA, why base effects can make inflation look better on the surface than it is underneath, and how that feeds into interest‑rate expectations and the Australian dollar.

In the US, the conversation covers hawkish Fed signals, the importance of core PCE inflation, and mounting concerns over soaring government debt. The episode also looks at why gold and Bitcoin often rally as hedges when debt, inflation and policy uncertainty rise, and the market implications of geopolitical tensions and oil prices.

Shane also highlights how the explosion of AI, social media, and financial commentary has amplified the noise rather than improved forecasting.