Diana Mousina, deputy chief economist at AMP, joins Marius Mariton to discuss AI investment, China's economy, global bond yields and the cost of having an extra kid.

Mousina examines NextDC's share price fall after delays to a Melbourne data centre expansion, explaining how electricity supply and community opposition can constrain infrastructure development. While she remains positive on AI demand, she warns investors to be selective as technology stocks may struggle to maintain their recent growth pace.

The conversation turns to China's economic growth and its importance to Australia. Despite weakness in China's property sector, Mousina says demand for Australian commodities remains supported by exports and industrial activity. She also explains why rising global bond yields and government debt could weigh on equity markets.

Mousina discusses findings from AMP's Retirement Pulse survey, which show younger Australians reconsidering plans to have children amid housing costs, childcare expenses and employment uncertainty. She explores the limits of intergenerational wealth transfers and potential ways governments could better support families.

Finally, Mousina assesses Australia's economic outlook, including housing affordability, productivity and living standards. While she does not expect a recession, she anticipates soft growth in the coming years and argues GDP per capita offers a clearer picture of how households are faring.

On this episode of Relative Return Insider, host Marius Mariton speaks with My Bui, economist at AMP, about the AI investment boom and whether the current pace of spending can continue.

Bui is optimistic about AI's longer-term productivity benefits, but says hyperscalers' capital expenditure is growing far faster than revenues.

She expects spending on chips, data centres and energy infrastructure to keep rising for another two to three years before slowing around 2028–29. They also discuss the risks around funding, energy supply and whether AI companies can generate enough revenue to justify the huge amounts being invested.

The conversation then turns to the US midterm elections, the Federal Reserve and Australia's inflation challenge. Bui expects the Democrats to make gains in the House, potentially creating more uncertainty for markets, while she sees the Fed taking a measured approach to interest rates. In Australia, she argues the RBA faces a tougher inflation battle because productivity growth remains weak. With demand still too strong relative to supply, higher interest rates are being used to slow spending — although Bui believes the RBA may be getting close to the end of its hiking cycle.

Finally, Marius and Bui discuss rising bond yields and the recent pressure on French government bonds, including whether the problems could spread to other highly indebted European countries. They also look at what a more inflationary world means for investors and retirees, with Bui arguing that Australian retirees are generally better positioned than many might expect. From AI and data centres to central banks, government debt and retirement savings, the episode explores the economic forces shaping markets in Australia and globally.

In this episode, host Marius Mariton speaks with AMP Chief Economist Shane Oliver about Australia's latest interest rate hike and what it means for households, inflation and the economy. With the RBA cash rate now at 4.6%, Oliver explains why the central bank has moved to reinforce its inflation-fighting credibility, and why mortgage holders are bearing more of the burden than households benefiting from higher deposit rates.

Oliver also discusses whether Australia is entering a period of stagflation, with slower economic growth and inflation likely to remain above the RBA's target for some time. He also looks at housing, with dwelling prices falling from their recent highs, and discuss whether the correction could deepen. Oliver also shares his view on the likelihood of another RBA hike in November or December, pointing to weakening household spending, labour market conditions and falling building approvals.

The conversation then turns offshore, covering US inflation, the Federal Reserve, rising global bond yields and what the changing interest-rate environment means for investors. Oliver also discusses the Australian dollar, the impact of AI demand on inflation and construction costs, and the end of card surcharge fees. Finally, Marius asks Oliver about his long weekend plans, and discovers that sailing, rather than rugby or AFL, is more his thing.