On this episode of Relative Return Insider, host Marius Mariton speaks with My Bui, economist at AMP, about the AI investment boom and whether the current pace of spending can continue.

Bui is optimistic about AI's longer-term productivity benefits, but says hyperscalers' capital expenditure is growing far faster than revenues.

She expects spending on chips, data centres and energy infrastructure to keep rising for another two to three years before slowing around 2028–29. They also discuss the risks around funding, energy supply and whether AI companies can generate enough revenue to justify the huge amounts being invested.

The conversation then turns to the US midterm elections, the Federal Reserve and Australia's inflation challenge. Bui expects the Democrats to make gains in the House, potentially creating more uncertainty for markets, while she sees the Fed taking a measured approach to interest rates. In Australia, she argues the RBA faces a tougher inflation battle because productivity growth remains weak. With demand still too strong relative to supply, higher interest rates are being used to slow spending — although Bui believes the RBA may be getting close to the end of its hiking cycle.

Finally, Marius and Bui discuss rising bond yields and the recent pressure on French government bonds, including whether the problems could spread to other highly indebted European countries. They also look at what a more inflationary world means for investors and retirees, with Bui arguing that Australian retirees are generally better positioned than many might expect. From AI and data centres to central banks, government debt and retirement savings, the episode explores the economic forces shaping markets in Australia and globally.