Global nuts market summary

• In Iran, pistachio exports to the European Union remained resilient during the first quarter of 2026 despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. Export values increased slightly year over year, supported by a strategic shift toward higher-value pistachio kernels. Kernel exports rose modestly, while in-shell pistachio exports declined significantly, reflecting changing preferences among European buyers. Although imports by Germany decreased, stronger demand from other EU member states offset the decline, indicating a broader diversification of European purchasing patterns and continued demand for value-added products.
• South Africa's pistachio industry is positioning itself for long-term growth, targeting a 5% to 8% share of the global export market. Industry plans aim to expand annual production to approximately 60,000 metric tons by the late 2030s, supported by favorable international prices and supply gaps in Northern Hemisphere markets. Growth is concentrated in the Northern Cape region along the Orange River, although producers continue to face challenges related to climate suitability, water availability, and the need for significant investment in efficient production systems.
• In Turkey, hazelnut exports declined by 30.6% between January and May 2026 compared with the same period a year earlier. Despite lower shipment volumes, export revenues increased by 16.3%, driven by a sharp rise in unit values. Average export prices climbed substantially, highlighting strong global demand and tighter supply conditions. Turkey continues to strengthen its position as the world's leading hazelnut supplier by expanding into emerging markets, particularly in Africa, reducing its reliance on traditional European destinations and improving its long-term market resilience.

Global Nuts Market Summary

• Global pistachio production is projected at 701,000 tons for the current season, a 36.4% decline from the prior year, driven by the confluence of natural alternate bearing cycles, adverse weather, and regional production constraints. Global ending stocks are anticipated to fall 48.5% to 123,400 tons, pointing to a materially tighter supply environment and intensified procurement competition against a backdrop of steady demand.
• The United States is forecast to produce 350,000 tons, a 51.6% decline, attributable to alternate bearing compounded by high temperatures during bloom that caused bloom stress, reduced nut set, uneven cluster formation, and flower drop.
• Iran is projected at 130,000 tons, a 42.2% decline, reflecting the combined effect of alternate bearing and severe drought conditions.
• Turkey is on course for a 36.5% production increase to 156,400 tons, representing a partial recovery driven by favorable cycle positioning, though ongoing drought and irrigation constraints are keeping output below 2024/25 levels. Syria, Australia, and Greece are also expected to post production gains, while Italy faces a substantial decline.
• Afghanistan's historic pistachio belt is undergoing reforestation efforts targeting 200,000,000 trees by 2030, though severe drought is threatening sapling survival rates. Community-based forest management is central to the initiative, with near-term commercial supply implications remaining minimal as the program remains in an ecological restoration phase.
• Spain's almond production for 2026/27 is forecast at 135,250 metric tons, a 6.6% year-on-year increase, supported by new orchard maturation and a 6% expansion in planted area. Andalusia and Catalonia are leading output growth, while Castilla La Mancha is facing weather-related yield pressure. The organic segment has been additionally impacted by frost, though the national outlook remains constructive overall.

Global Nuts Market Summary

• Turkey's hazelnut market is operating under the shadow of domestic political instability following the removal of opposition leader Ozgur Ozel, which triggered protests and a surge in foreign currency demand. The central bank has maintained exchange rate stability thus far, and physical supply chains and production remain unaffected. However, rising government bond yields and elevated local financing costs are pressuring suppliers, who may be incentivized to offload stocks prematurely, adding downward price pressure. In-shell hazelnut prices are currently stable at TRY 170 per kilogram, with FOB Istanbul prices for natural 11-13mm hazelnuts at $9.17 per kilogram and natural 13-15mm at $10.56 per kilogram. Turkish export shipments declined in early 2026 due to a smaller crop and tighter quality controls.
• Buyer sentiment is broadly cautious. Major end-users including Ferrero are bidding at low levels, particularly for giresun-quality nuts, and are deliberately delaying purchases in anticipation of further price softening supported by favorable crop forecasts and ample carryover inventories. The Turkish Grain Board's pricing stance for raw nuts is the primary counterweight to this expectation, and its intervention level will be decisive for market direction. Without active board engagement, trading volumes are at risk of remaining subdued against a backdrop of elevated capital costs.
• Georgia is gaining ground in the EU premium segment, with natural 13-15mm hazelnuts trading at approximately EUR 10.90 per kilogram. Favorable weather conditions have supported stable supply without weather-driven price disruption, sustaining a consistent premium. Georgia's improving kernel quality is increasingly capturing EU buyers that would previously have sourced Turkish origin, representing a medium-term structural challenge to Turkey's dominant export position. If EU demand strengthens, a divergence between stable Georgian prices and firming Turkish kernel prices is a plausible near-term outcome.