Global Nuts Market Summary

• Turkey's hazelnut market is operating under the shadow of domestic political instability following the removal of opposition leader Ozgur Ozel, which triggered protests and a surge in foreign currency demand. The central bank has maintained exchange rate stability thus far, and physical supply chains and production remain unaffected. However, rising government bond yields and elevated local financing costs are pressuring suppliers, who may be incentivized to offload stocks prematurely, adding downward price pressure. In-shell hazelnut prices are currently stable at TRY 170 per kilogram, with FOB Istanbul prices for natural 11-13mm hazelnuts at $9.17 per kilogram and natural 13-15mm at $10.56 per kilogram. Turkish export shipments declined in early 2026 due to a smaller crop and tighter quality controls.
• Buyer sentiment is broadly cautious. Major end-users including Ferrero are bidding at low levels, particularly for giresun-quality nuts, and are deliberately delaying purchases in anticipation of further price softening supported by favorable crop forecasts and ample carryover inventories. The Turkish Grain Board's pricing stance for raw nuts is the primary counterweight to this expectation, and its intervention level will be decisive for market direction. Without active board engagement, trading volumes are at risk of remaining subdued against a backdrop of elevated capital costs.
• Georgia is gaining ground in the EU premium segment, with natural 13-15mm hazelnuts trading at approximately EUR 10.90 per kilogram. Favorable weather conditions have supported stable supply without weather-driven price disruption, sustaining a consistent premium. Georgia's improving kernel quality is increasingly capturing EU buyers that would previously have sourced Turkish origin, representing a medium-term structural challenge to Turkey's dominant export position. If EU demand strengthens, a divergence between stable Georgian prices and firming Turkish kernel prices is a plausible near-term outcome.