Global Nuts Market Weekly Summary

• India's cashew market is under strain from two converging pressures: weak kernel demand and a rupee at a historic low against the U.S. dollar, which is elevating the cost of imported raw cashew nuts. Import prices from Tanzania stand at USD 1.91 per kilogram, while Mozambique supplies are priced between USD 1.60 and 1.62 per kilogram. International raw cashew nut offers remain elevated, exceeding USD 1,500 per metric ton. Some price relief emerged in early April following new shipments from Cote d'Ivoire, Burkina Faso, and Cambodia. February 2026 exports reached nearly 2,700 metric tons, with traders looking to demand signals from China and the Middle East to provide clearer direction on the market's near-term trajectory.
• Vietnam's cashew processing sector is contending with declining kernel quality despite easing prices. The persistent gap between high raw cashew nut input costs and lower processed kernel values is shaping buyer behavior, with roasters and processors gravitating toward premium grades (W3 and W240) even at higher bid levels. The subpar quality of early West African imports has further constrained high-grade kernel availability, keeping the market steady but cautious.
• Following market access for exporters from March 25, 2026, a tight procurement window resulted in local processors securing between 530,000 and 550,000 metric tons of raw cashew nuts. Harvests are progressing, though on-farm stockholding has diminished as farmers, facing urgent cash needs, are selling immediately after collection. Yields are below last year's levels. Wholesale prices are ranging between USD 0.72 and 0.75 per kilogram, with factory gate prices between USD 0.82 and 0.87 per kilogram, reflecting active competition among processors.
• The April influx of raw cashew nuts from West Africa and Cambodia initially pushed prices lower, but persistently high international raw material costs above USD 1,500 per metric ton have maintained an unfavorable spread between input costs and kernel values. Quality issues in Vietnam and weak kernel demand in India are reinforcing careful purchasing strategies across the supply chain. The market's next directional move will hinge largely on whether demand from China and the Middle East strengthens sufficiently to rebalance kernel pricing.

Global Nuts Market Weekly Summary

• This week's nuts market report covers two distinct developments: a regionally significant expansion in groundnut cultivation in Bangladesh, and a broadly stable but quietly shifting global almond trade picture.
• In Narsinghdi, Bangladesh, groundnut farming along the Meghna River is expanding meaningfully, driven by low input costs, minimal fertilizer and pesticide requirements, and attractive profit margins. Previously fallow char lands are being brought into productive use, with the Department of Agricultural Extension providing ongoing support for sustainable scaling and pest management. Beyond output, the sector is generating tangible community benefits, including seasonal employment in processing and sorting activities, with notable participation from women. Weather-related risk remains a consideration, but the overall trajectory is positive. The development is primarily regional in scope and does not materially affect national-level agricultural statistics.
• On the global almond market, the 2025/26 season is projecting modest output stability with a marginal overall increase. The United States, as the dominant producer, is reporting slight growth, while Australia is seeing a production decline. Turkey and China are posting stronger relative growth rates, though their absolute contribution to global supply remains limited. On the trade side, Spain's almond exports have declined, pointing to softening European demand. Whether this reflects a structural reduction in consumption or a shift in sourcing strategy away from European channels is not yet clear. U.S. shipment patterns to Europe will be a key indicator to monitor in the coming months. Broadly, the almond market is in a state of equilibrium, with modest trade flow adjustments underway rather than any significant supply or demand dislocation.

This episode explores a global nuts market.

• A key development comes from Bangladesh, where farmers in Sunamganj are expanding groundnut cultivation beyond initial targets because of stronger profitability and steady local demand. Groundnuts are gaining appeal as an alternative to crops like rice, largely because of lower input costs and better margins. Even so, the outlook remains dependent on favorable rainfall and improved advisory support from agricultural agencies, which are still limited.
• Cashews are another major focus, particularly in West Africa and Southeast Asia. In Togo, authorities are tightening sector rules by lowering the 2026 farm gate price and imposing an early-season moratorium to reduce speculation, stabilize the market, and strengthen the domestic value chain. In Ghana, industry advocates are calling for stronger policy enforcement, greater transparency, and more direct farmer involvement in decision-making to help the cashew economy deliver more sustainable regional benefits. Cambodia’s cashew sector, meanwhile, is becoming more closely integrated with Vietnam through improved varieties, farming techniques, and a standing commitment from Vietnamese buyers to absorb Cambodia’s production.
• The episode also highlights strategic developments in pistachios. South Africa is positioning itself as a future global supplier, targeting meaningful market share through long-term investment in the Karoo region. The effort depends on patient capital and the ability to manage the slow maturation cycle of pistachio trees before commercial scale can be reached. Vietnam, although it does not produce pistachios domestically, is playing an influential role as a processing and re-export hub, especially for shipments moving onward to China. That model allows it to add value within the supply chain while benefiting from tariff and trade advantages.

This episode delivers an in-depth look at the global nuts market.

• Global cashew production is projected to grow by 3 percent in the current season, reaching 5.53 million metric tons. The Northern Hemisphere is expected to contribute 4.57 million tons (a 2 percent increase), while the Southern Hemisphere will add 901,000 tons (a 7 percent increase). Tanzania stands out with a forecasted 17 percent jump in output to 700,000 tons, exceeding expectations set by the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council.
• Increased cashew output is also evident in Cambodia, India, Cote D'Ivoire, and Nigeria, with respective gains of 6.3 percent, 17.9 percent, 4.2 percent, and 6.4 percent. This growth is driven largely by robust demand from China, the European Union, and the Middle East. The EU has notably increased its procurement of African cashew kernels. Conversely, Vietnam, Ghana, and Togo are experiencing production declines of 11.8 percent, 18.2 percent, and 33.3 percent respectively. The U.S. market is seeing weaker demand due to elevated costs and tariffs, prompting Vietnam to shift its export focus to China.
• India's domestic processing market continues to expand, with cashew processing demand expected to reach 4 million metric tons by 2045. Price variations among cashew types are notable, reflecting shifting global preferences and market segmentation. Meanwhile, Vietnam has signed a new cultivation agreement with Cuba, covering cashew and short-cycle crops on 2,000 hectares, strengthening bilateral trade and agricultural investment ties.
• In Goa, the cashew feni industry is leveraging geographical indication tags to protect and enhance its market position amid challenges such as aging orchards, climate variability, and import competition. Vietnam’s cashew export volume has increased 4 percent, while export value surged 19.5 percent in the first eleven months of 2025, fueled by a 14.9 percent rise in average export prices. Exports to China and The Netherlands have grown, but shipments to the United States have declined.
• Separately, Iran has achieved EU certification for its pistachios, boosting its credibility and competitiveness in European markets. With annual pistachio exports totaling 100,000 tons, this certification is expected to strengthen Iran’s role as a leading supplier in the region.

This episode highlights key trends and developments across the global nuts market.

• In Kosven Province, authorities intercepted approximately 20 tons of smuggled pistachios en route to European markets. The operation, linked to organized trade networks, uncovered significant economic implications, with the pistachios valued at an estimated BRL192 billion. Authorities are urging public vigilance to curb commodity smuggling and protect economic stability.
• In Canada, health officials issued a national alert regarding potential salmonella contamination in Iranian pistachios and related products. Consumers are advised to check product origins and adhere to food safety guidelines due to the long shelf life of pistachios. The advisory underscores the importance of sustained caution and regulatory oversight in international nut trade.
• Chile has seen notable growth in walnut exports between March and October 2025. In-shell walnut shipments rose by 29%, and shelled walnut exports jumped 35% year-over-year in October. Although exports to India declined by 11%, demand surged in the Middle East and Africa, with European imports up 33%. Particularly, demand for shelled walnuts in Europe increased by 54%, led by the Netherlands and Germany. In contrast, exports to Spain and broader American regions declined, indicating evolving regional preferences and market realignments.

This week’s report on the global nuts market.

• Vietnam's cashew sector continues to expand, driven by robust demand from China, the United States, and India. Between January and late 2025, Chinese imports of Vietnamese cashew kernels rose 37.4 percent in volume and 54.1 percent in value, setting Vietnam on course to exceed $5 billion in exports by year-end. However, increased reliance on African raw cashew imports, which have reached a three-year high, is pressuring processors’ profit margins due to elevated input costs. Some processors are halting operations under financial strain.
• In Iran, pistachio production in regions such as Zurandieh, Markazi, has plummeted by 50 percent this year, driven by unfavorable weather and persistent export sanctions. The resulting decline in both quality and export potential has sparked calls for government support and investment in agricultural technologies. Further compounding the issue, Canada has issued a large recall of Iranian pistachios due to salmonella contamination, affecting over 130 products and prompting stricter import safety protocols.
• India's nut imports, including almonds, walnuts, and pistachios, are projected to rise by 7 percent, spurred by growing health awareness and a large consumer base. Almond demand remains particularly steady. Meanwhile, Turkey's hazelnut output is forecast to drop by 36 percent in the 2025–2026 season due to adverse weather, adding strain to global supply. In contrast, Chile and the United States are expected to increase nut production, contributing to a shifting global trade landscape and influencing pricing structures across the sector.

This episode provides a comprehensive overview of recent trends in the global walnut market.

• In October 2025, U.S. walnut shipments rose significantly to £158 million, an 8.94 percent increase compared to the same month in 2024. This growth was primarily fueled by a surge in export demand, which reached £120 million, while domestic shipments saw a modest 2 percent rise to £38 million. Since the start of the season, total shipments have reached £421 million, up 10 percent from the previous year.
• The European market remained a key importer with a 5 percent volume increase to £102 million, while Middle East imports declined slightly by 0.7 percent to £3 million. By the end of October, sales commitments climbed to £467 million, an 11 percent year-over-year increase, supported by a 15 percent monthly rise in new sales.
• Crop receipts for October stood at 1.123 billion pounds, reflecting a stable harvest trend compared to the previous year's £1 billion. Market sentiment remains positive, driven by robust export growth and successful penetration into new markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, where demand from countries like Thailand has strengthened.
• Despite this optimism, stakeholders are monitoring potential risks, including geopolitical tensions and input cost volatility that could affect pricing strategies. U.S. walnut exports are making notable inroads into emerging markets, offsetting slowdowns in traditional regions. Continued focus on these new opportunities is seen as essential for sustaining global competitiveness.
• Overall, the walnut market presents a narrative of strong export-driven expansion with cautious strategic planning to manage supply chain and logistic challenges.

This episode presents a detailed snapshot of the global nuts market as of November 16, 2025.

• From January to August 2025, Azerbaijan's cashew imports surged by 28 percent in volume and 57 percent in value, totaling 282 tons worth $2.3 million. Vietnam dominated supply, contributing 229 tons valued at $1.9 million, while India’s exports to Azerbaijan declined by 44 percent in value. New trade links with Benin and Ghana have emerged, marking a significant shift after 14 years of absence from Azerbaijan’s supplier list.
• Vietnam, a top global cashew kernel exporter, continues to face operational pressures. Despite importing nearly $4 billion worth of raw cashews—much from Cambodia—to manage raw material costs, rising input prices and a shift in processing activity toward Africa threaten efficiency and raise the risk of operational losses and factory closures without strategic adjustments.
• In Ghana, the cashew sector shows strong growth potential, with revenue projections exceeding $660 million annually through enhanced regulation and infrastructure. The Tree Crops Development Authority is working to stabilize prices, increase local processing, and reduce raw exports, currently valued at about $300 million, with an ambition to match regional leaders like Côte d'Ivoire and Nigeria.
• Tanzania is poised for a record cashew harvest of 700,000 tons, up from 528,000 tons the previous year. Over 45 companies will engage in transparent, quality-assured online auctions. Most of Tanzania’s raw cashews are exported for processing in Vietnam and India, forming a vital part of the country's agricultural exports.
• In Iran, Kermanshah province expects a 2025 pistachio yield of around 250 tons. The region is expanding cultivation, focusing on water-efficient varieties such as Akhburi and Ahmad Agay, aligning with sustainability goals and regional development plans.
• Kenya has announced a temporary halt to macadamia trading from December 1, 2025, to February 15, 2026, aiming to protect crop maturity and uphold export quality. Meanwhile, Georgia’s hazelnut sector is under threat from pests and disease, potentially losing up to 30 percent of the crop. Investment in research and pest control is critical to preserving industry viability.