Global nuts market summary

• In Iran, pistachio exports to the European Union remained resilient during the first quarter of 2026 despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. Export values increased slightly year over year, supported by a strategic shift toward higher-value pistachio kernels. Kernel exports rose modestly, while in-shell pistachio exports declined significantly, reflecting changing preferences among European buyers. Although imports by Germany decreased, stronger demand from other EU member states offset the decline, indicating a broader diversification of European purchasing patterns and continued demand for value-added products.
• South Africa's pistachio industry is positioning itself for long-term growth, targeting a 5% to 8% share of the global export market. Industry plans aim to expand annual production to approximately 60,000 metric tons by the late 2030s, supported by favorable international prices and supply gaps in Northern Hemisphere markets. Growth is concentrated in the Northern Cape region along the Orange River, although producers continue to face challenges related to climate suitability, water availability, and the need for significant investment in efficient production systems.
• In Turkey, hazelnut exports declined by 30.6% between January and May 2026 compared with the same period a year earlier. Despite lower shipment volumes, export revenues increased by 16.3%, driven by a sharp rise in unit values. Average export prices climbed substantially, highlighting strong global demand and tighter supply conditions. Turkey continues to strengthen its position as the world's leading hazelnut supplier by expanding into emerging markets, particularly in Africa, reducing its reliance on traditional European destinations and improving its long-term market resilience.

Global Nuts Market Summary

• Global pistachio production is projected at 701,000 tons for the current season, a 36.4% decline from the prior year, driven by the confluence of natural alternate bearing cycles, adverse weather, and regional production constraints. Global ending stocks are anticipated to fall 48.5% to 123,400 tons, pointing to a materially tighter supply environment and intensified procurement competition against a backdrop of steady demand.
• The United States is forecast to produce 350,000 tons, a 51.6% decline, attributable to alternate bearing compounded by high temperatures during bloom that caused bloom stress, reduced nut set, uneven cluster formation, and flower drop.
• Iran is projected at 130,000 tons, a 42.2% decline, reflecting the combined effect of alternate bearing and severe drought conditions.
• Turkey is on course for a 36.5% production increase to 156,400 tons, representing a partial recovery driven by favorable cycle positioning, though ongoing drought and irrigation constraints are keeping output below 2024/25 levels. Syria, Australia, and Greece are also expected to post production gains, while Italy faces a substantial decline.
• Afghanistan's historic pistachio belt is undergoing reforestation efforts targeting 200,000,000 trees by 2030, though severe drought is threatening sapling survival rates. Community-based forest management is central to the initiative, with near-term commercial supply implications remaining minimal as the program remains in an ecological restoration phase.
• Spain's almond production for 2026/27 is forecast at 135,250 metric tons, a 6.6% year-on-year increase, supported by new orchard maturation and a 6% expansion in planted area. Andalusia and Catalonia are leading output growth, while Castilla La Mancha is facing weather-related yield pressure. The organic segment has been additionally impacted by frost, though the national outlook remains constructive overall.

Global Nuts Market Summary

• Turkey's hazelnut market is operating under the shadow of domestic political instability following the removal of opposition leader Ozgur Ozel, which triggered protests and a surge in foreign currency demand. The central bank has maintained exchange rate stability thus far, and physical supply chains and production remain unaffected. However, rising government bond yields and elevated local financing costs are pressuring suppliers, who may be incentivized to offload stocks prematurely, adding downward price pressure. In-shell hazelnut prices are currently stable at TRY 170 per kilogram, with FOB Istanbul prices for natural 11-13mm hazelnuts at $9.17 per kilogram and natural 13-15mm at $10.56 per kilogram. Turkish export shipments declined in early 2026 due to a smaller crop and tighter quality controls.
• Buyer sentiment is broadly cautious. Major end-users including Ferrero are bidding at low levels, particularly for giresun-quality nuts, and are deliberately delaying purchases in anticipation of further price softening supported by favorable crop forecasts and ample carryover inventories. The Turkish Grain Board's pricing stance for raw nuts is the primary counterweight to this expectation, and its intervention level will be decisive for market direction. Without active board engagement, trading volumes are at risk of remaining subdued against a backdrop of elevated capital costs.
• Georgia is gaining ground in the EU premium segment, with natural 13-15mm hazelnuts trading at approximately EUR 10.90 per kilogram. Favorable weather conditions have supported stable supply without weather-driven price disruption, sustaining a consistent premium. Georgia's improving kernel quality is increasingly capturing EU buyers that would previously have sourced Turkish origin, representing a medium-term structural challenge to Turkey's dominant export position. If EU demand strengthens, a divergence between stable Georgian prices and firming Turkish kernel prices is a plausible near-term outcome.

Global Nuts Market Summary

• The cashew sector is pivoting toward value chain diversification by capitalizing on the underutilized cashew apple byproduct. A national workshop on sustainable cashew production highlighted the potential to convert cashew apples into food, beverage, and extracted products (such as pectin), thereby generating supplementary income streams alongside traditional nut revenues. This diversification approach could stabilize grower and processor incomes while reducing waste and maximizing plant utility from the entire cashew tree.
• Sustainable production practices are critical to realizing cashew apple value chain potential. Key focus areas include developing improved cultivars, enhancing orchard management, advancing pest and disease control, and optimizing post-harvest protocols to maintain both nut quality and apple usability. Standardization and farmer knowledge transfer of these methods are essential to ensure consistent product quality and market viability across producing regions.
• Cashew apple processing faces significant logistical constraints requiring infrastructure investment. The fruit's high perishability necessitates efficient collection and processing systems located near orchard sites. Successful execution also requires compliance with food safety standards, clear product labeling for regulatory approval and consumer acceptance, and deployment of small-scale equipment alongside farmer training in handling and processing techniques. These infrastructure requirements present both barriers to entry and opportunities for organized value chain development.

Global Nuts Market Summary

• Bangladesh's cashew industry is grappling with severe market challenges, primarily due to the impact of cheaper imported cashews, which are undermining local processor competitiveness. The production cost for local processors is approximately TK 1,300 per kilogram excluding profits. However, imported cashew kernels priced between TK 1,400 and TK 1,500 per kilogram undercut the necessary selling price of TK 1,950 to TK 2,000 per kilogram required for local processors to remain viable.
• A crucial factor is the tax differential between imported cashews with testa (skin) taxed at $4.1 per kilogram and processed cashews taxed at $6 per kilogram, resulting in a tax advantage of TK 101 to TK 107. This has catalyzed a significant shift in import trends, with cashews with testa surging from negligible amounts in fiscal year 2024 to 87% in the first ten months of fiscal year 2026. Consequently, domestic investment is stalling, and local cashew farms are witnessing plummeting prices due to decreased procurement by processors striving to compete with more affordable imports.
• In response to these pressures, the Bangladeshi government is deliberating potential changes to import valuation mechanisms and customs classifications to alleviate strains on domestic processors. The current customs valuation misalignment allows imported cashews to undercut local market prices, thereby discouraging investment in domestic processing. Authorities are reviewing policies concerning these valuation rules, with revisions potentially featuring in the forthcoming national budget to address these discrepancies and support local industry viability.
• The influx of cheaper imports compels local processors to operate below breakeven levels, inciting operational losses and diminishing procurement from region-specific cashew farms, particularly affecting areas like Rangameedi. Farm gate prices for raw cashews have dropped from TK 6,000 to TK 6,500 per month to TK 4,800 to TK 5,200 per month. Since cashew cultivation area expanded substantially post-2021 involving roughly 3,500 farmers, the present market dynamics threaten these farmers' economic stability. Policy realignments are essential to develop a competitive stance for the local cashew industry while safeguarding the livelihoods of farmers who rely on this crop across Bangladesh.

Global Nuts Market Summary

• Sudan's Rahad Agricultural Project has commenced groundnut planting across 840 hectares, with ambitions to expand to approximately 2,940 hectares. Historical yields of up to 119 sacks per hectare underline the agronomic potential of the area. However, operations face significant non-weather risk: militia activity by the Rapid Support Forces has historically caused crop failures and displacement, and logistical constraints further threaten planting, maintenance, and harvest timelines. Local leaders are calling for greater government coordination to secure both the physical and logistical conditions needed to protect agricultural output, which carries meaningful revenue importance for the regional economy.
• In Nigeria, a proposed export ban on raw cashew nuts is generating significant pushback from the National Cashew Association of Nigeria and smallholder farmers. While the policy is intended to stimulate domestic processing and value addition, the existing infrastructure is insufficient to absorb national production, with current processing capacity covering less than 10% of output. High domestic interest rates of 25% to 35% and elevated energy costs make processing investment financially difficult, and the three to four month harvest window limits operational flexibility. Implementing the ban without first resolving these structural gaps risks depressing farm gate prices, reducing smallholder incomes, and disrupting global supply chains given Nigeria's significant role in cashew exports.
• California's almond sector is under sustained pressure from drought and water scarcity, with reduced acreage and increasing reliance on deficit irrigation contributing to lower yields and potential quality deterioration. Market indicators point to rising almond prices as supply tightens against stable demand, placing global buyers in a more constrained procurement environment. Producers are weighing the difficult trade-off between removing underperforming orchards and committing to sustainable practices that may not deliver near-term returns. The pistachio segment, by contrast, remains relatively stable and is providing some offset for buyers navigating tighter almond availability.

Global Nuts Market Weekly Summary

• India's groundnut market is seeing heightened demand for sowing seeds, with prices rising to around $78.50 per quintal and seed rates up 25 to 30% compared to the previous season. The Strait of Hormuz blockade, alongside domestic geopolitical pressures and government auction activity, has fostered cautious buying behavior and elevated retail purchases. Export prices to Indonesia are ranging from $1,300 to $1,350 per metric ton, reflecting sustained regional demand. Near-term prices are expected to remain firm, with increased domestic cultivation identified as the primary lever for stabilising supply.
• In the United States, Farm Bill 2.0 discussions in Washington are centering on trade, nutrition, and economic support measures for the groundnut sector. Rising production costs and projected financial losses for the 2026 crop year are driving calls for support frameworks that go beyond the existing 2026 Farmer Bridge Assistance Program, with planting acreage adjustments and revised market strategies expected to influence global sourcing dynamics.
• India's cashew processing hub of Pulasa is facing disruption from the West Asian conflict, with its daily capacity of approximately 500 tons underutilised due to halted exports and restricted raw nut supplies. Short-term government intervention and local market adjustments are being considered to maintain operational continuity.
• Mozambique's cashew industry more than doubled in export value in 2025, underpinned by scaled production capabilities. A government initiative targeting 689,000 tons of annual production by 2034 signals a long-term commitment to expanding domestic processing and improving value retention.
• Vietnam's cashew exports showed mild growth in early 2026, with the United States emerging as a notably larger buyer. Diversification of export markets has reduced reliance on traditional buyers, though investment in quality and raw material procurement remains critical to achieving the country's 800,000 ton export target amid intensifying competition from rival origins.

Global Nuts Market Weekly Summary

• India's cashew market is under strain from two converging pressures: weak kernel demand and a rupee at a historic low against the U.S. dollar, which is elevating the cost of imported raw cashew nuts. Import prices from Tanzania stand at USD 1.91 per kilogram, while Mozambique supplies are priced between USD 1.60 and 1.62 per kilogram. International raw cashew nut offers remain elevated, exceeding USD 1,500 per metric ton. Some price relief emerged in early April following new shipments from Cote d'Ivoire, Burkina Faso, and Cambodia. February 2026 exports reached nearly 2,700 metric tons, with traders looking to demand signals from China and the Middle East to provide clearer direction on the market's near-term trajectory.
• Vietnam's cashew processing sector is contending with declining kernel quality despite easing prices. The persistent gap between high raw cashew nut input costs and lower processed kernel values is shaping buyer behavior, with roasters and processors gravitating toward premium grades (W3 and W240) even at higher bid levels. The subpar quality of early West African imports has further constrained high-grade kernel availability, keeping the market steady but cautious.
• Following market access for exporters from March 25, 2026, a tight procurement window resulted in local processors securing between 530,000 and 550,000 metric tons of raw cashew nuts. Harvests are progressing, though on-farm stockholding has diminished as farmers, facing urgent cash needs, are selling immediately after collection. Yields are below last year's levels. Wholesale prices are ranging between USD 0.72 and 0.75 per kilogram, with factory gate prices between USD 0.82 and 0.87 per kilogram, reflecting active competition among processors.
• The April influx of raw cashew nuts from West Africa and Cambodia initially pushed prices lower, but persistently high international raw material costs above USD 1,500 per metric ton have maintained an unfavorable spread between input costs and kernel values. Quality issues in Vietnam and weak kernel demand in India are reinforcing careful purchasing strategies across the supply chain. The market's next directional move will hinge largely on whether demand from China and the Middle East strengthens sufficiently to rebalance kernel pricing.