Global Cocoa Market Weekly Summary

• West Africa's two dominant cocoa producers, Ghana and Ivory Coast, are grappling with deepening structural and financial pressures that threaten to constrain global supply through the 2025/26 season and beyond.
• In Ghana, farmers are facing payment delays of up to six months from licensed buying companies, leaving them without the working capital needed for basic operations such as harvesting and transport. Some farmers are reportedly withholding beans until payment is assured, raising the risk of near-term supply disruptions. While the Ghana Cocoa Board has indicated that funds have been allocated to clear outstanding arrears, inconsistencies in how those funds move through the supply chain have undermined confidence. Compounding this, official farm gate prices were cut by nearly 30% for the 2025/26 season, squeezing producer margins and potentially discouraging future cultivation.
• Ivory Coast faces similar headwinds. Production for the 2025/26 season is projected to fall by 10.8%, from 1.85 million metric tons to approximately 1.65 million metric tons. A 57% reduction in farmer pay, introduced at the March mid-crop, has significantly curtailed farmers' ability to invest in crop maintenance, with downstream implications for future yields. Despite an 18.9% year-on-year increase in cocoa arrivals at ports by June 2026, medium-term risks remain elevated, particularly given the added threat of El Nino-related weather disruption.
• Nigeria adds further concern to the regional picture, with production forecast to decline 11% to 305,000 metric tons. Falling price incentives and rising input costs are the primary drivers, and April 2026 export volumes dropped 20% compared to the same period last year, signalling weakening external demand alongside domestic production difficulties.
• On the policy front, Ghana and Ivory Coast are advancing efforts to harmonise cocoa pricing and marketing strategies through a regional coordination initiative, synchronising farm gate pricing and crop calendars to reduce internal competition and support farmer incomes. However, the sharp farm gate price reductions in Ivory Coast have already triggered disruption, including road blockades by cooperatives unable to move unsold inventory due to payment arrears. The initiative holds potential to strengthen the region's collective market influence, but its credibility depends on more consistent and timely payments reaching producers.

Global Cocoa Market Summary

• In Ivory Coast, severe rains and strong winds damaged young flower buds and cocoa trees, raising concerns about future yields. Despite these weather challenges, cocoa port arrivals remained strong, reaching 1.69 million metric tons by early June, up 3% from the previous year. Government forecasts continue to point toward a sizeable crop, with deliveries expected to reach 2.2 million metric tons. However, a 57% reduction in the mid-crop farmgate price has raised concerns about its potential impact on farmer incomes and future production incentives.
• Ghana also reduced official farmgate prices for the 2025-26 season by approximately 30%. While the country remains a key contributor to global cocoa supply, lower producer prices could place additional pressure on farmer profitability and potentially discourage future production.
• Indonesia is pursuing long-term growth through an ambitious agricultural revitalization program that includes distributing roughly 280 million cocoa and coconut seedlings. The initiative aims to expand plantation area significantly, although meaningful production gains are expected to take several years because of cocoa's lengthy maturation cycle.
• Nigeria faces a more challenging outlook, with cocoa production projected to decline by 11% year over year and exports falling 20% through April. Lower price incentives and rising production costs continue to weigh on the sector, creating obstacles for growers and exporters.
• At the global level, market participants are reassessing supply expectations as the possibility of El Nino introduces new weather-related risks for major producing regions, particularly in West Africa. At the same time, growing speculative activity and rising inventory levels suggest improved physical availability, contributing to downward pressure on prices.

Global Cocoa Market Summary

• Ivory Coast is navigating heightened volatility in ICE cocoa futures, with rising certified warehouse stocks and declining grinding volumes in major markets pointing toward a near-term surplus. The government has forecast a 10.8% decline in production for the 2025/26 season, bringing output to approximately 1,650,000 metric tons. Looking ahead, lower farm gate prices risk discouraging investment in crop maintenance, while the potential emergence of El Nino conditions could introduce further supply-side disruption through prolonged dry spells.
• Ghana faces a structurally similar set of pressures, with falling farm gate prices eroding farmers' capacity to fund essential agronomic inputs. The Ghana Cocoa Board has imposed substantial penalties on smuggling activity in an effort to protect sector revenues, but the combination of weak price incentives and adverse weather risks keeps the medium-term production outlook uncertain.
• Indonesia is experiencing a pronounced downturn in cocoa derivative pricing, with butter, powder, and liquor all under pressure. This challenges the country's position as a key supplier in the Asian market and may reflect a combination of subdued regional demand and internal structural inefficiencies, with implications for broader intra-regional trade flows.
• Nigeria's production outlook remains under strain, with anticipated yield declines driven by falling farmer incomes at reduced price levels. Compounding this are logistical disruptions from smuggling activity and ongoing regulatory changes, leaving the sector facing considerable near-term headwinds.

Global Cocoa Market Summary

• Ivory Coast has revised its 2025/26 delivery estimate upward to 2.2 million metric tons, a sharp recovery from earlier forecasts of 1.65 million metric tons, driven by improved weather conditions. Port arrivals reached 1.64 million metric tons by 24 May 2026, up 2.5% year on year. However, a 57% reduction in farm gate prices for mid-crop poses a material risk to future production quality and volume by discouraging adequate crop management.
• Ghana faces a projected 30% decline in farm gate prices for the 2025/26 season, which could deter farmers from making necessary investments in crop care. The government is seeking to raise $1 billion through domestic bonds to finance upcoming procurement, signaling institutional commitment to maintaining purchase volumes despite compressed international prices. The downstream impact on production quality and output remains a key concern.
• Nigeria continues to contract, with cocoa exports down 35% year on year as of March. The Cocoa Association of Nigeria forecasts a further 11% production decline for 2025/26, placing output at approximately 305,000 metric tons. The trajectory reflects broader West African pressures combining climatic stress and deteriorating farm economics.
• Globally, demand signals are mixed. European grinds fell 7.8% and North American grinds declined 3.8%, while Asian grinds rose 5.2%, indicating a regional rebalancing of processing activity. A growing trend among food manufacturers toward cocoa-free chocolate alternatives introduces a longer-term structural demand risk. El Nino concerns persist, with below-average cherelle formation flagged as a potential yield constraint for the 2026/27 harvest season.

Global Cocoa Market Summary

• Cocoa producing regions face divergent trajectories, with Ivory Coast benefiting from favorable weather conditions while Nigeria and other producers confront structural headwinds. El Niño conditions pose a significant emerging risk between May and July 2026, threatening to disrupt yields across West Africa and reverse recent production gains. The contrast between near-term supply expansion and longer-term climatic uncertainty creates asymmetric market dynamics.
• Ivory Coast has revised its 2026 cocoa delivery forecast upward to 2,200,000 metric tons from the previous range of 1.8 to 1,900,000 metric tons, driven by favorable growing conditions. This substantial increase in production projections has created a perception of potential near-term oversupply. Cumulative port shipments have risen 1.9% year on year to 1,610,000 metric tons by May 2026, supporting the supply expansion narrative.
• Farmer economics have deteriorated markedly despite production gains. Ivory Coast implemented a 57% cut to farm gate prices for the mid-crop harvest, while Ghana reduced official farmer prices by nearly 30% for the 2025-2026 season. These aggressive price reductions constrain farmer income and may dampen investment in crop maintenance and productivity enhancements, creating longer-term production sustainability risks that could offset near-term supply increases.
• Nigeria's cocoa sector is contracting sharply, with production projected to decline 11% to 305,000 metric tons for the 2025-2026 season, attributed to lower price incentives and elevated input costs. Cocoa exports fell 35% year on year in March 2026, signaling tightening regional supply conditions. This contraction illustrates divergent regional dynamics despite global production gains.

Global Cocoa Market Summary

• Cocoa producing regions face mounting pressures from climate uncertainty and economic headwinds, with Ivory Coast and Ghana at particular risk as El Nino conditions threaten substantial yield disruptions. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimates a 61% probability of El Nino occurring in 2026, creating significant climatic volatility for the sector.
• Ivory Coast's cocoa output projections have been revised downward by 10.8%, with forecasted production now estimated at 1,650,000 metric tons for the 2025-26 season. This adjustment reflects anticipated weather extremes and their impact on crop health.
• The economic landscape for cocoa farmers has deteriorated markedly, with farm gate prices experiencing substantial cuts: 57% in Ivory Coast and nearly 30% in Ghana. These financial pressures are expected to dampen farmers' capacity and willingness to invest in essential crop maintenance, potentially exacerbating the impacts of adverse weather conditions on yields. The financial squeeze limits reinvestment potential, posing a longer-term threat to production sustainability.
• Current high inventory levels provide some cushioning effect on market prices, potentially dampening sudden upward price movements driven by supply shortages. However, this existing inventory also limits immediate bullish potential in cocoa markets, even as forecasts point to a tighter supply outlook moving forward.

Global Cocoa Market Summary

• Ivory Coast remains under significant stress, with 2025/26 production forecast to fall 10.8% to 1,650,000 metric tons as drought affects more than half the country. A 57% reduction in mid-crop farm gate prices threatens to suppress farmer investment and maintenance activity going forward. Cumulative shipments have edged up 0.7% year on year to 1,540,000 metric tons as of early May 2026, though the ongoing dry spell poses a direct threat to the mid-crop currently in progress.
• Ghana is confronting both climatic and structural challenges simultaneously. Drought conditions now cover approximately two thirds of the country, while the government's state buying company has ceased cocoa purchases due to insolvency, shrinking its market share from around 30% to less than 5%. Official farm gate prices have been cut by nearly 30% for 2025/26, compressing farmer margins at a time when growing conditions are already deteriorating. The combined effect is expected to produce a material decline in harvest volumes.
• Nigeria's near-term outlook is similarly constrained. February 2026 exports fell 4.6% year on year, and 2025/26 production is forecast to decline 11% to 385,000 metric tons. Reduced price incentives and rising input costs are the primary structural drivers, with global supply chain disruptions linked to the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz adding further pressure.
• At the global level, the supply picture is complicated by the anticipated intensification of El Nino through 2026, which carries additional downside risk for West African yields. Grinding data points to demand contraction in North America and Europe, though Asian processing activity has shown resilience.

Global Cocoa Market Summary

• Ivory Coast is projecting output of 1,650,000 metric tons for 2025/26, down 10.8% from 1,850,000 metric tons the prior year. Drought conditions affecting more than half the country (as reported by the African Flood and Drought Monitor) are the primary driver, compounded by a 57% cut in mid-crop farm gate prices that may discourage farmer investment in future seasons. Port arrivals through April 19, 2026 have nonetheless held steady, with cumulative shipments up 0.7% year on year at 1,510,000 metric tons.
• Ghana faces a sharper contraction, with forecasts pointing to a nearly 30% reduction in 2025/26 output. Drought is affecting approximately two thirds of the country, and farm gate prices have been cut by close to 30%. Delayed farmer payments and cocoa stranded at ports due to financial constraints are adding further friction to an already stressed supply chain.
• Nigeria's 2025/26 production outlook points to an 11% decline, consistent with the regional trend. The Cocoa Association of Nigeria attributes the expected drop to reduced price incentives, rising input costs, and global logistical disruptions. A 17% rise in cocoa exports recorded in December 2025 offers limited reassurance given the uncertain medium to long term production trajectory.
• At the global level, the demand picture is mixed. Contractions in European and North American cocoa consumption have been partially offset by unexpected demand growth in Asian markets. However, the strategic decisions by major producers to reduce farmer payments in response to weaker market conditions risk creating a reinforcing cycle of lower output and tighter supply. Combined with volatile global prices and climate sensitivity, the cocoa market faces a highly uncertain near to medium term outlook.