Global Cocoa Market Weekly Summary: April 8, 2026

• West Africa's cocoa sector faces mounting pressure in the 2025/26 season, with production declines, falling farmer incomes, and rising operational costs converging to create significant uncertainty across global supply chains.
• Ivory Coast, the world's leading cocoa producer, is projected to see output fall by 10.8% to approximately 1,650,000 metric tons, down from 1,850,000 metric tons the prior year. Severe drought affecting more than half the country is the primary driver of this contraction. Compounding the supply-side strain, the government has implemented a 57% reduction in mid-crop farmer pay, effective April 2026. Operational costs have also risen sharply due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has elevated expenses in fertilizer, shipping, and insurance. Ivory Coast remains a central force in global cocoa supply, making these developments particularly consequential for the broader market.
• Ghana presents a similarly challenging picture. Official farm gate prices have been cut by approximately 30%, dealing a significant blow to farmer incomes. Payment delays are accelerating a troubling trend: farmers selling their land to illegal miners, raising serious concerns about the long-term viability of cocoa agriculture in the region. Approximately two-thirds of the country is also experiencing persistent drought, further threatening crop health and productivity.
• Nigeria offers a more mixed near-term outlook. Cocoa exports rose 17% year-on-year through December 2025, signaling strong short-term supply. However, the Cocoa Association of Nigeria forecasts an 11% production decline for the 2025/26 season, with output projected to fall to 305,000 metric tons, reflecting wider regional challenges including price volatility and climate-related crop impacts.
• Taken together, these developments across West Africa point to tightening global cocoa supply, driven by a combination of climate stress, policy-driven income reductions, and structural shifts in land use. Stakeholders across the cocoa value chain will need to monitor these trends closely as the season progresses.

This episode examines a global cocoa market.

• Ivory Coast is a major focus, with cocoa production for the 2025-26 season projected to fall 10.8 percent year over year to 1.65 million metric tons, down from 1.85 million tons the previous season. That weaker outlook is reinforced by lower port arrivals through mid-March, indicating reduced export flow. At the same time, higher shipping costs linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are increasing import expenses and lending temporary support to cocoa prices. The government’s 57 percent cut in farm gate prices has also encouraged some renewed local buying, as processors moved to secure larger contracts.
• The episode also highlights Ghana, where authorities have reduced farm gate prices by nearly 30 percent in an effort to improve competitiveness. Even so, licensed buyers continue to face serious liquidity constraints, slowing bean procurement from farmers. Because local prices remain above global levels, international trade has been discouraged and stockpiles are beginning to build, raising concerns not only about financial strain but also about possible deterioration in bean quality.
• Nigeria adds another layer to the outlook. Cocoa exports were up 17 percent year over year as of December, showing strong trade momentum, but that strength may be difficult to sustain. The Nigerian Cocoa Association is forecasting an 11 percent drop in production for the 2025-26 season, which could tighten regional supply further unless other producers offset the decline.
• Overall, the episode presents a cocoa market where local disruptions are not enough to outweigh weak global demand.

This episode delivers a focused analysis of the global cocoa market.

• In Ivory Coast, despite optimal growing conditions, concerns have emerged due to logistical inefficiencies and labor shortages. These issues have contributed to a 1.8% year-over-year decline in port arrivals, raising questions about harvest timing and distribution capabilities. Nonetheless, the potential for stable or increased yields remains if these barriers are addressed.
• Nigeria's cocoa output forecast for the 2025–26 season has been cut by 11% to 305,000 tons. This revision, driven by poor farming conditions and weak infrastructure, adds to global supply concerns and could support higher prices if the tightening trend persists. Ghana, similarly benefiting from favorable weather, faces comparable logistical hurdles.
• Globally, the cocoa market reflects a mix of bullish and bearish indicators. The International Cocoa Organization has reported a smaller expected surplus, and U.S. inventories have fallen to an 8.75-month low. The recent inclusion of New York cocoa in the Bloomberg Commodity Index may further attract investment, reinforcing price strength. However, weak demand trends are tempering optimism, as grind figures across Asia and Europe fall and North American chocolate sales decline.
• Finally, the European Union's postponed enforcement of its deforestation rule offers short-term supply relief but introduces uncertainty into long-term forecasts. Traders must weigh these diverse signals, with supply limitations and demand softness continuing to drive volatility in the cocoa market.

This episode explores the current state of the global cocoa market.

• Nigeria is projected to see an 11% decline in cocoa production for the 2025–26 season, bringing output down to 305,000 tons. This drop is attributed to ongoing structural challenges in cultivation and logistics. The contraction in Nigerian supply is especially notable given that United States cocoa stocks have reached an eight-month low of 1.685 million bags, further tightening the global supply outlook.
• In the Ivory Coast and Ghana, favorable growing conditions have supported cocoa pod development, yet port arrivals in the Ivory Coast fell 2.1% year-over-year to 718,451 tons. This suggests possible production or logistical issues, tempering expectations of a surplus. While balanced rainfall has aided West African production overall, the corresponding risk of oversupply has placed downward pressure on prices.
• Policy developments are also shaping the market. The European Parliament's delay in implementing the EU deforestation regulation has temporarily eased export pressures for West African producers. Meanwhile, proposed tariff adjustments in the United States on Brazilian cocoa may enhance Brazil’s competitiveness, altering global trade flows and pricing.
• Despite tightening inventories, market sentiment remains cautious. This is reflected in increased net short positions in London cocoa futures, indicating that traders are bracing for potential demand-side weaknesses. These developments illustrate the complex interplay between production trends, policy shifts, and speculative activity in determining global cocoa market dynamics.

This week’s global cocoa market report.

• The Ivory Coast is set to benefit from the European Union's delayed enforcement of its deforestation regulation, preserving market access until late 2026. While cocoa pod counts are currently 7 percent above the five-year average, port arrivals have dropped by 3.7 percent year over year, totaling 618,899 metric tons as of late November. This contrast between strong crop indicators and reduced logistical throughput highlights ongoing sector vulnerabilities.
• Ghana shares a similarly positive crop outlook, bolstered by the EU’s regulatory delay. However, declining cocoa grind rates in key consumption regions may weigh on demand for Ghanaian cocoa. Nigeria, meanwhile, is expected to see an 11 percent drop in cocoa production due to limited investment and agronomic issues. Nonetheless, broader global supply appears stable due to compensating growth in other producing countries.
• Globally, cocoa demand is under pressure. Asian grind data reveals a 17 percent decline, while Europe reports a 4.8 percent drop, both pointing to reduced chocolate production. North American markets also face weak retail sales, with notable downturns from firms like Hershey.
• On the trading front, March 2026 cocoa futures are under sustained bearish pressure, hovering near $5,050 per ton. Without consistent closes above $5,750, market sentiment remains negative, and lower support levels may be tested. Overall, while production forecasts are favorable in parts of West Africa, market direction is dominated by regulatory timing, demand softness, and technical pricing patterns.

Here's a professional summary of the episode focused on the global cocoa market for November 23, 2025:

• Cocoa production in Ivory Coast is currently above the five-year average, driven by favorable weather and optimal pod development. Despite a 5.7 percent year-on-year decline in exports for October and November, the drop reflects logistical challenges rather than reduced output. Farmers remain hopeful for the main crop, though global demand fluctuations and policy changes add uncertainty. Ghana reports similarly strong production prospects due to healthy agricultural conditions, but faces demand-side and regulatory pressures.
• Nigeria contrasts with its neighbors, projecting an 11 percent production decline for the 2025–2026 season. This decrease stems from infrastructure gaps and local climate issues, though exports have remained stable, showcasing resilience. Meanwhile, the United States has removed a 10 percent import tariff on cocoa, aiming to lower costs and encourage imports.
• In the European Union, the implementation of a deforestation regulation targeting cocoa-linked land use violations has been delayed. This temporarily reduces pressure on suppliers in West Africa and South America. However, global cocoa demand remains subdued. Declining grind data in key markets like North America, Asia, and Europe reflects reduced chocolate sales, with companies such as Hershey noting downward trends. As a result, the International Cocoa Organization now forecasts a market surplus, reversing earlier deficit projections.
• Overall, while favorable production in Ivory Coast and Ghana supports supply, weakened demand and Nigeria’s production setbacks complicate the market outlook and contribute to price volatility.