Global Cocoa Market Weekly Summary: April 8, 2026

• West Africa's cocoa sector faces mounting pressure in the 2025/26 season, with production declines, falling farmer incomes, and rising operational costs converging to create significant uncertainty across global supply chains.
• Ivory Coast, the world's leading cocoa producer, is projected to see output fall by 10.8% to approximately 1,650,000 metric tons, down from 1,850,000 metric tons the prior year. Severe drought affecting more than half the country is the primary driver of this contraction. Compounding the supply-side strain, the government has implemented a 57% reduction in mid-crop farmer pay, effective April 2026. Operational costs have also risen sharply due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has elevated expenses in fertilizer, shipping, and insurance. Ivory Coast remains a central force in global cocoa supply, making these developments particularly consequential for the broader market.
• Ghana presents a similarly challenging picture. Official farm gate prices have been cut by approximately 30%, dealing a significant blow to farmer incomes. Payment delays are accelerating a troubling trend: farmers selling their land to illegal miners, raising serious concerns about the long-term viability of cocoa agriculture in the region. Approximately two-thirds of the country is also experiencing persistent drought, further threatening crop health and productivity.
• Nigeria offers a more mixed near-term outlook. Cocoa exports rose 17% year-on-year through December 2025, signaling strong short-term supply. However, the Cocoa Association of Nigeria forecasts an 11% production decline for the 2025/26 season, with output projected to fall to 305,000 metric tons, reflecting wider regional challenges including price volatility and climate-related crop impacts.
• Taken together, these developments across West Africa point to tightening global cocoa supply, driven by a combination of climate stress, policy-driven income reductions, and structural shifts in land use. Stakeholders across the cocoa value chain will need to monitor these trends closely as the season progresses.