This episode examines a global cocoa market.

• Ivory Coast is a major focus, with cocoa production for the 2025-26 season projected to fall 10.8 percent year over year to 1.65 million metric tons, down from 1.85 million tons the previous season. That weaker outlook is reinforced by lower port arrivals through mid-March, indicating reduced export flow. At the same time, higher shipping costs linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are increasing import expenses and lending temporary support to cocoa prices. The government’s 57 percent cut in farm gate prices has also encouraged some renewed local buying, as processors moved to secure larger contracts.
• The episode also highlights Ghana, where authorities have reduced farm gate prices by nearly 30 percent in an effort to improve competitiveness. Even so, licensed buyers continue to face serious liquidity constraints, slowing bean procurement from farmers. Because local prices remain above global levels, international trade has been discouraged and stockpiles are beginning to build, raising concerns not only about financial strain but also about possible deterioration in bean quality.
• Nigeria adds another layer to the outlook. Cocoa exports were up 17 percent year over year as of December, showing strong trade momentum, but that strength may be difficult to sustain. The Nigerian Cocoa Association is forecasting an 11 percent drop in production for the 2025-26 season, which could tighten regional supply further unless other producers offset the decline.
• Overall, the episode presents a cocoa market where local disruptions are not enough to outweigh weak global demand.