Global Cocoa Market Summary

• In Ivory Coast, farmer cocoa shipments have risen 21 percent to 2.09 million tons, reflecting a strong current season. However, the outlook for the 2026/27 crop is considerably weaker, with production projected to decline 18 percent to 1.8 million tons. Heavy rainfall has increased the risk of brown rot and black pod disease, while the potential development of a strong El Nino could bring drier conditions later in the season, placing additional stress on yields. A sharp reduction in mid-crop farmgate prices is also expected to weigh on farmer incomes and production incentives.
• Ghana faces many of the same challenges. Excessive rainfall is disrupting farm operations and port access while increasing disease pressure across cocoa-growing regions. At the same time, lower official farmgate prices are adding financial strain for producers, creating further uncertainty around production and harvest performance.
• Nigeria is also expected to record lower cocoa production, with output forecast to decline because of aging plantations and increasing climate-related risks. Efforts to strengthen the sector include the distribution of one million hybrid cocoa seedlings to improve productivity and disease resistance, although structural issues such as limited market access continue to constrain long-term growth.
• Overall, the episode highlights how weather volatility, disease outbreaks, lower farmer returns, and persistent structural challenges across West Africa are creating significant risks for global cocoa production and supply in the coming seasons.

Global Cocoa Market Summary

• Ivory Coast, where persistent heavy rains have restricted access to cocoa farms and increased the spread of diseases such as brown rot and black pod. The potential return of El Nino is expected to further reduce flowering, pod quality, and yields during the 2026/27 main crop. Preliminary forecasts suggest production could fall to around 1.8 million tonnes, representing a significant decline from previous seasons. The discussion also highlights that the 2025/26 season recorded a 10.8 percent year on year production decline, while a sharp reduction in mid crop farmgate prices has increased financial pressure on producers and raised concerns about future investment in farm maintenance.
• The outlook for Ghana remains similarly challenging. Lower producer prices, adverse weather, and ongoing financial pressures are expected to weigh on cocoa production and farm management practices. The episode also examines the role of the Ghana Cocoa Board, noting that reduced official producer prices are affecting farmer earnings despite earlier hedging efforts.
• Nigeria is also expected to see lower cocoa output, with production projected to decline because of ageing plantations and climate related challenges. While initiatives such as the distribution of one million hybrid cocoa seedlings aim to improve productivity and disease resistance, structural issues including limited market access continue to constrain long term sector growth.
• Rising ICE certified inventories and weaker cocoa grinding data from Europe and North America indicate softer demand, providing a bearish influence on prices. At the same time, ongoing weather related supply risks across West Africa and the potential impact of El Nino continue to support a more constructive outlook for future supply. The discussion also highlights upcoming European Union sustainability and compliance requirements, which are expected to reshape cocoa sourcing, procurement practices, and global trade flows in the months ahead.

Global Cocoa Market Summary

• In Cote d'Ivoire, a sharp decline in global cocoa prices has left more than 700,000 metric tons of cocoa unsold, placing significant financial strain on farmers despite a government-set producer price designed to provide stability. Reduced buying activity from major trading firms, criticism of forward selling strategies, and heavy rainfall disrupting farm access while increasing disease risks have further complicated the situation.
• Ghana is facing similar challenges. Although a large share of the 2025/26 harvest was sold in advance to reduce exposure to market volatility, the government was still forced to lower the official producer price to reflect weaker market conditions. Delayed payments to farmers have also created operational difficulties, contributing to management issues and crop spoilage.
• The episode also explores Nigeria's efforts to strengthen its cocoa sector through the distribution of one million hybrid cocoa seedlings under the National Cocoa Development Plan. While the initiative aims to improve productivity and resilience against disease and climate risks, the country continues to face structural obstacles, including aging plantations, climate pressures, limited market access, and insufficient value addition.
• At the global level, cocoa prices have retreated sharply from their 2024 highs as improved harvest expectations, weaker demand from manufacturers, and a stronger US dollar have weighed on the market. The discussion concludes by emphasizing that the current downturn exposes longstanding weaknesses in the cocoa industry, including persistent price volatility, dependence on export markets, and the limited share of value retained by producing nations.