Global Cocoa Market Summary

• Ivory Coast has revised its 2025/26 delivery estimate upward to 2.2 million metric tons, a sharp recovery from earlier forecasts of 1.65 million metric tons, driven by improved weather conditions. Port arrivals reached 1.64 million metric tons by 24 May 2026, up 2.5% year on year. However, a 57% reduction in farm gate prices for mid-crop poses a material risk to future production quality and volume by discouraging adequate crop management.
• Ghana faces a projected 30% decline in farm gate prices for the 2025/26 season, which could deter farmers from making necessary investments in crop care. The government is seeking to raise $1 billion through domestic bonds to finance upcoming procurement, signaling institutional commitment to maintaining purchase volumes despite compressed international prices. The downstream impact on production quality and output remains a key concern.
• Nigeria continues to contract, with cocoa exports down 35% year on year as of March. The Cocoa Association of Nigeria forecasts a further 11% production decline for 2025/26, placing output at approximately 305,000 metric tons. The trajectory reflects broader West African pressures combining climatic stress and deteriorating farm economics.
• Globally, demand signals are mixed. European grinds fell 7.8% and North American grinds declined 3.8%, while Asian grinds rose 5.2%, indicating a regional rebalancing of processing activity. A growing trend among food manufacturers toward cocoa-free chocolate alternatives introduces a longer-term structural demand risk. El Nino concerns persist, with below-average cherelle formation flagged as a potential yield constraint for the 2026/27 harvest season.

Global Cocoa Market Summary

• Cocoa producing regions face divergent trajectories, with Ivory Coast benefiting from favorable weather conditions while Nigeria and other producers confront structural headwinds. El Niño conditions pose a significant emerging risk between May and July 2026, threatening to disrupt yields across West Africa and reverse recent production gains. The contrast between near-term supply expansion and longer-term climatic uncertainty creates asymmetric market dynamics.
• Ivory Coast has revised its 2026 cocoa delivery forecast upward to 2,200,000 metric tons from the previous range of 1.8 to 1,900,000 metric tons, driven by favorable growing conditions. This substantial increase in production projections has created a perception of potential near-term oversupply. Cumulative port shipments have risen 1.9% year on year to 1,610,000 metric tons by May 2026, supporting the supply expansion narrative.
• Farmer economics have deteriorated markedly despite production gains. Ivory Coast implemented a 57% cut to farm gate prices for the mid-crop harvest, while Ghana reduced official farmer prices by nearly 30% for the 2025-2026 season. These aggressive price reductions constrain farmer income and may dampen investment in crop maintenance and productivity enhancements, creating longer-term production sustainability risks that could offset near-term supply increases.
• Nigeria's cocoa sector is contracting sharply, with production projected to decline 11% to 305,000 metric tons for the 2025-2026 season, attributed to lower price incentives and elevated input costs. Cocoa exports fell 35% year on year in March 2026, signaling tightening regional supply conditions. This contraction illustrates divergent regional dynamics despite global production gains.