Executive Summary

The Bitcoin market is currently defined by a “Great Divergence,” a significant conflict between a technically-driven price rebound and a marked deterioration in on-chain and flow-of-funds fundamentals. While the price has recovered above 103,000 USD following a major leverage flush, this rally is mechanically unsupported. The short-term outlook is bearish, underscored by two critical developments. First, institutional conviction has inverted, with U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recording a sixth consecutive day of net outflows, bringing the total to over 2.04 billion USD. Second, on-chain data reveals a loss of conviction among Long-Term Holders (LTHs), who have shifted from typical profit-taking to “selling into weakness,” creating persistent supply overhead. This is compounded by negative spot market demand, confirmed by negative Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) data.

Countering this immediate weakness, the long-term structural framework is strengthening. A new report reframes corporate adoption as a grassroots movement led by Small-to-Medium Businesses (SMBs), providing a silent, sticky, and uncorrelated source of demand. Concurrently, the mining sector is undergoing a healthy consolidation, and high-conviction whales are adding leveraged long positions, betting against the current downturn. The market’s immediate focus is the critical 107,000 USD resistance level; a rejection would confirm the negative technical outlook, while a reclaim could signal a bear trap. Until institutional outflows and on-chain demand reverse, the current price action remains a suspect relief rally.

The team provides a financial overview of Bitcoin’s recent price action and market dynamics as of November 2025, noting a nearly four percent decline amid a broad market retreat. This downturn is attributed to persistent selling pressure from long-term holders and a slowdown in institutional accumulation, with the daily supply of newly mined Bitcoin currently outpacing ETF inflows. Technical analysis highlights the critical nature of the $103,000–$104,518 support zone, warning that a breach could lead to deeper corrections, while the overall sentiment is characterized by increased caution and panic selling from short-term holders. Despite these short-term headwinds, the digest notes counterbalancing support from continued institutional adoption by major banks and positive regulatory shifts in places like Hong Kong. Ultimately, the team concludes that while downside risks are prominent, they are tempered by longer-term strategic considerations and regulatory tailwinds, advising investors to maintain a neutral stance.