Épisodes

  • Thursday BEST BETS | Are We Back? | NHL Stanley Cup Finals + MLB & WNBA | 6/4/26

    Thursday BEST BETS | Are We Back? | NHL Stanley Cup Finals + MLB & WNBA | 6/4/26
    Jun 4 2026
    My links
    www.linktree.com/learntotoad
    www.patreon.com/learntotoad

    MLB
    NYY -1.5 +130 / -170

    June 4 Betting Picks & Breakdown: Yankees Split Bet, MLB Slate Notes + WNBA/NHL Leans

    Toad recaps a 2-1 day, highlighting wins on the Red Sox and Giants (with discussion of how MLB bets handle listed starters, “must start” options, and voided bets) and a frustrating Phoenix WNBA result despite a late lead. He breaks down Thursday’s board, passing on several matchups while analyzing Phillies-Padres (Wheeler vs. Giolito), Orioles-Red Sox (Rogers vs. Bello and Boston’s opener/follower situation), Giants-Brewers (Houser vs. Crowe), Jays-Braves (Toronto bullpen game vs. Chris Sale), Royals-Twins (Minnesota bullpen situation), A’s-Cubs (wind/out at Wrigley concerns and Imanaga’s form), Pirates-Astros (bullpens vs. starters), and Dodgers-Diamondbacks (Nelson’s strong history vs. LAD). The only official play is Yankees to avoid a sweep vs. Cleveland using a split bet: moneyline (-170) and -1.5 run line (+130) structured to push on a one-run win; he also gives light WNBA and NHL leans without adding plays.

    00:00 Cold Open Lyrics
    01:28 Show Intro and Recap
    02:37 Pitcher Rules Explained
    04:46 WNBA Bad Beat
    07:26 Today Board Overview
    07:43 Padres Phillies Breakdown
    13:40 Orioles Red Sox Preview
    21:36 Yankees Run Line Pick
    28:58 Giants Brewers Lean
    35:20 Blue Jays Braves Mismatch
    39:39 Royals Twins Spot
    39:56 Royals Twins Breakdown
    41:05 Lugo vs Bullpen Game
    43:54 Over Moneyline Lean
    45:11 Athletics Cubs Spot
    46:48 Ginn vs Imanaga Matchup
    51:06 Windy Wrigley Totals
    52:33 Pirates Astros Over Series
    53:44 Jones vs Tang Analysis
    57:27 Dodgers Diamondbacks Finale
    01:02:38 WNBA Cup Leans
    01:03:14 Clark Minutes Coaching
    01:05:45 Golden State at Minnesota
    01:08:19 NHL Vegas Carolina Game 2
    01:13:19 Final Card Yankees Split
    01:14:54 Wrap Up and Plugs
    00:33 Closing Outro

    #bets #sportsbetting #daily #ncaaf #nfl #nhl #nba #ncaab #mlb #ncaa #wnba #playoffs #nbaplayoffs #nhlplayoffs
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    1 h et 18 min
  • Monday BEST BETS | I Hate Everything | MLB & WNBA | 6/1/26

    Monday BEST BETS | I Hate Everything | MLB & WNBA | 6/1/26
    Jun 1 2026
    My links
    www.linktree.com/learntotoad
    www.patreon.com/learntotoad

    MLB
    CIN -1.5 -102

    MLB & WNBA Picks for Monday, June 1 | One Best Bet: Reds Run Line (Chase Burns)

    Toad recaps a losing day (Minnesota/Pittsburgh first five under and Kansas City undone early by Wacha) and initially plans to skip a small Monday board, but ultimately makes one best bet: Cincinnati Reds -1.5 behind Chase Burns versus Kansas City’s bullpen game. He breaks down several MLB matchups with situational notes (road-trip returns, bullpen usage, public money) including Detroit–Tampa Bay, Miami–Washington (leans Washington/first five under concept), White Sox–Minnesota (first five under idea), Giants–Brewers (leans under), Rangers–Cardinals (first five under lean), Rockies–Angels (team total over thought but passes), Dodgers–Diamondbacks (uncertain, possible over), and Mets–Mariners (leans Seattle). He also briefly discusses two WNBA games, leaning Seattle +points at Dallas and possibly Phoenix +points vs Minnesota, but passes both, then closes with show and social plugs.

    00:00 Cold Open Intro
    01:28 Recap Losing Bets
    02:31 Board Skip Mood
    02:44 Tigers Rays Breakdown
    08:20 Marlins Nationals Preview
    13:37 Chat Check In
    13:53 Royals Reds Best Bet
    20:11 White Sox Twins Analysis
    27:11 Giants Brewers TV Game
    33:44 Break And Return
    35:26 Rangers Cardinals Start
    37:26 DeGrom Road Concerns
    39:17 McGreevy Matchup Edge
    40:55 First Five Under Debate
    42:39 Rockies Angels Over Spot
    44:27 Freeland vs Soriano Breakdown
    47:48 Dodgers Dbacks Series
    49:12 Sheehan vs E Rod
    54:26 Mets Mariners Travel Spot
    56:48 Bullpen Game vs Hancock
    01:01:45 WNBA Slate Reactions
    01:03:39 Phoenix Minnesota Line Move
    01:07:43 Wrap Up Best Bet

    #bets #sportsbetting #daily #ncaaf #nfl #nhl #nba #ncaab #mlb #ncaa #wnba #playoffs #nbaplayoffs #nhlplayoffs
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    1 h et 10 min
  • Sunday BEST BETS | No Playoffs | MLB & WNBA | 5/31/26

    Sunday BEST BETS | No Playoffs | MLB & WNBA | 5/31/26
    May 31 2026
    My links
    www.linktree.com/learntotoad
    www.patreon.com/learntotoad

    MLB
    MIN/PIT F5 Under 4 -115
    KC F5 -105

    MLB Picks & Betting Breakdown (Sun May 31): Twins/Pirates F5 Under + Royals/Rangers F5 ML
    Toad recaps a 1–2 day, then breaks down Sunday, May 31 betting boards across MLB (plus a brief WNBA note), focusing on pitching matchups, bullpen rest, offense ranks, market splits, and totals. He discusses key games including Blue Jays/Orioles (Toronto bullpen concerns), Padres/Nationals (leans over), Rays/Angels (McClanahan edge), Braves/Reds (leans Reds F5 but passes), Red Sox/Guardians (leans under), Mets/Marlins (leans Mets, notes Miami opener possibility), Tigers/White Sox (passes despite public on Chicago), Brewers/Astros (Mierzowski dominance but pricey), Giants/Rockies (leans over), Yankees/A’s (leans Yankees), D-backs/Mariners (leans under), Phillies/Dodgers (Dodgers edge), and Cubs/Cardinals (leans over). Official plays: Twins–Pirates 1st 5 under 4 and Royals 1st 5 moneyline behind Michael Wacha.

    00:00 Cold Open Verse
    01:27 Show Intro Recap
    03:08 Odds Board Frustration
    03:30 Jays Orioles Breakdown
    08:28 Twins Pirates Pick
    13:21 Padres Nats Over Lean
    21:10 Rays Angels Mismatch
    27:15 Braves Reds Spot
    32:58 Red Sox Guardians Preview
    36:38 Bibee Red Sox Breakdown
    38:10 Under and Side Lean
    40:04 Marlins Mets Motivation
    41:31 Junk vs McLain Matchup
    45:20 Tigers White Sox Sweep
    47:31 Montero Burke Pitching
    51:48 Brewers Astros Mismatch
    52:53 Miz Dominance
    58:09 Royals Rangers Best Bet
    01:00:17 Wacha vs Leiter Edge
    01:07:20 Giants Rockies Coors Over
    01:13:47 Yankees Athletics Rubber Match
    01:14:19 Yankees Bullpen Edge
    01:14:50 Will Warren Breakdown
    01:16:50 Lopez Trouble Signs
    01:18:21 Yankees Betting Angle
    01:20:01 Arizona Seattle Preview
    01:21:53 Kelly vs Miller Pitching
    01:24:36 Under and Side Lean
    01:26:09 Phillies Dodgers Mismatch
    01:28:29 Yamamoto vs Painter
    01:31:45 Cubs Cardinals Nightcap
    01:33:10 Wicks Liberatore Analysis
    01:35:53 Over Lean and Market
    01:36:58 WNBA Quick Take
    01:39:26 Plays and Wrap Up
    01:40:27 Miami Opener Confusion
    01:42:51 Final Sign Off

    #bets #sportsbetting #daily #ncaaf #nfl #nhl #nba #ncaab #mlb #ncaa #wnba #playoffs #nbaplayoffs #nhlplayoffsb
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    1 h et 47 min
  • Saturday BEST BETS | Game 7 | NBA Conference Finals & MLB & WNBA | 5/30/26

    Saturday BEST BETS | Game 7 | NBA Conference Finals & MLB & WNBA | 5/30/26
    May 30 2026
    My links
    www.linktree.com/learntotoad
    www.patreon.com/learntotoad

    NBA
    OKC -3.5

    MLB
    TOR F5 -125
    LAA/TB F5 Under 3.5 +100

    Saturday Picks: Blue Jays F5, Angels/Rays F5 Under & OKC Game 7 (May 30)

    Toad returns for the May 30 episode after going 1-1 the prior day, recaps the MLB results, and works through a large Saturday slate using odds, bullpen/offense rankings, splits, and matchup history while passing on several games. He considers spots like team travel, bullpen usage, public vs. money splits, and low totals, with a near-play on Padres/Nationals first-five under. Official picks are Toronto first five moneyline vs. Baltimore (backing Teoscar Savage over Brandon Young and avoiding Toronto’s taxed bullpen after a bullpen game), Angels/Rays first five under 3.5 (Detmers vs. Rasmussen, avoiding bullpens), and NBA Game 7 Oklahoma City -3.5, citing zigzag, home/experience edges, and expected shooting/FT regression after a blowout loss.

    00:00 Cold Open Betting Blues
    01:28 Show Intro and Yesterday Recap
    04:03 Odds Screen Setup and White Sox Tigers
    08:45 Twins Pirates Breakdown
    14:13 Padres Nationals Under Lean
    21:06 Official Play Blue Jays F5
    28:02 Royals Rangers Low Total Talk
    34:00 Official Play Angels Rays F5 Under
    41:40 Red Sox Bello Opener Rant
    43:22 Bullpen Edge Boston
    44:35 Gray vs Messick Breakdown
    47:51 Low Total Under Talk
    49:01 Marlins Mets Bullpen Game
    53:25 Mets First Five Lean
    54:38 Brewers Astros Pitching Puzzle
    59:43 Braves Reds Over Angle
    01:05:08 Quick Reset Break
    01:06:48 Cubs Cardinals Matchup
    01:12:03 Giants Rockies Coors Chaos
    01:17:25 Yankees As Stadium Factor
    01:22:47 Yankees A's Betting Angles
    01:23:43 Dbacks Mariners Under Talk
    01:30:33 Ghost Runner Rant
    01:31:04 Phillies Dodgers Pitching Shift
    01:39:19 WNBA Seattle Toronto Value
    01:43:22 WNBA LA Connecticut Spot
    01:46:56 WNBA Indiana Portland Spread
    01:50:59 NBA Game 7 OKC Zigzag
    02:01:38 Wrap Up Best Bets

    #bets #sportsbetting #daily #ncaaf #nfl #nhl #nba #ncaab #mlb #ncaa #wnba #playoffs #nbaplayoffs #nhlplayoffs
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    2 h et 5 min
  • Friday BEST BETS | Cold as Ice | NHL Conference Finals & MLB & WNBA | 5/29/26

    Friday BEST BETS | Cold as Ice | NHL Conference Finals & MLB & WNBA | 5/29/26
    May 29 2026
    My links
    www.linktree.com/learntotoad
    www.patreon.com/learntotoad

    MLB
    ATL/CIN Over 9.5 -105
    MIN/PIT F5 Under 4 -105

    MLB Picks for Friday May 29: Braves/Reds Over 9.5 + Twins/Pirates F5 Under 4 | Toadstool Sports

    Toad returns with Toadstool Sports for Friday, May 29th after going 0-1 the previous day, recapping the Tigers’ hitting woes and a missed MLB over while noting he had the Oklahoma City team total under correct. He gives two official MLB totals: Braves vs. Reds over 9.5, citing Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly park, favorable offense profiles, and mistrust of both starters (Grant Holmes’ walks and poor Reds matchup numbers; Chris Paddock’s struggles and hittability) plus Cincinnati’s weak bullpen; and Twins vs. Pirates first five under 4, avoiding shaky bullpens and leaning on starter unfamiliarity edges with Taj Bradley and Jared Jones returning. He also shares leans and situational notes on other MLB games, discusses problems finding betting split data, and briefly covers WNBA opinions and a hockey lean toward Carolina to close out their series.

    00:00 Cold Open Betting Blues
    01:27 Show Intro and Yesterday Recap
    02:29 Today Card and Data Tools
    04:18 Braves Reds Total Over
    11:16 Twins Pirates First Five Under
    17:42 Quick Leans Padres Nationals
    22:54 Blue Jays Orioles Unclear Pitching
    26:09 Angels Rays Conflicting Signals
    32:58 Plays Recap and Chat Check
    33:37 Red Sox Guardians Opener Strategy
    43:16 Marlins Mets Rematch Setup
    43:57 Mets Marlins Spot
    45:25 Meyer vs Peralta
    48:02 Under Lean Market
    50:35 Cubs Cardinals Edge
    52:52 Imanaga Bounce Back
    56:16 Cubs Moneyline Call
    57:28 Tigers White Sox Chaos
    01:00:18 Melton vs Fedde
    01:03:12 Detroit Lean Line
    01:04:53 Royals Rangers Slump
    01:07:28 Kolek vs Gore
    01:11:18 Break Intermission
    01:12:13 Slump Montage
    01:13:47 Brewers Astros Read
    01:15:41 Crow vs Tang
    01:20:10 Giants Rockies Coors
    01:22:07 Webb Returns Injury
    01:24:32 Rockies Lorenzen Woes
    01:24:45 Giants Rockies Pitching Fade
    01:25:52 Giants Side and Total Lean
    01:27:18 Yankees A's Stadium Spot
    01:28:15 Rodon vs Severino Breakdown
    01:32:05 Yankees Team Total Angle
    01:33:53 Dbacks Mariners Letdown Spot
    01:35:59 Gallen Kirby and Under Case
    01:40:05 Phillies Dodgers Series Preview
    01:42:07 Wheeler vs Dodgers Matchup
    01:44:04 Robleski and Total Debate
    01:46:53 WNBA Card Phoenix at Liberty
    01:49:33 Sparks Mystics Travel Spots
    01:52:17 Sky Lynx Zigzag Talk
    01:56:41 Dream vs Portland Mismatch
    01:59:14 Canes Closeout Pricey Line
    02:04:13 Final Plays and Sign Off

    #bets #sportsbetting #daily #ncaaf #nfl #nhl #nba #ncaab #mlb #ncaa #wnba #playoffs #nbaplayoffs #nhlplayoffs
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    2 h et 8 min
  • Thursday BEST BETS | Slim Pickins | NBA Conference Finals & MLB & WNBA | 5/28/26

    Thursday BEST BETS | Slim Pickins | NBA Conference Finals & MLB & WNBA | 5/28/26
    May 28 2026
    My links
    www.linktree.com/learntotoad
    www.patreon.com/learntotoad

    MLB
    LAA/DET Over 8.5 -112

    Toadstool Sports (May 28): Only Official Play — Angels/Tigers Over 8.5 + MLB, WNBA & NBA Leans

    Toad recaps going 1-1 the prior day, praising the Anaheim/Detroit first-five under and venting about a late collapse that spoiled Connecticut +6.5 in the WNBA. For Thursday, May 28, he calls it a small slate and gives one official play: Angels vs. Tigers over 8.5 (noting shaky bullpens and concerns with the starters). He then runs through leans and situational notes across the rest of the board, including White Sox vs. Twins (bulpen game concerns for Minnesota), Braves vs. Red Sox (low-total look with Sale vs. Talley), Blue Jays vs. Orioles (possible letdown spot and over lean), Cubs vs. Pirates (Skenes matchup and a rare over consideration), and Astros vs. Rangers (under/first-five under lean). He also discusses WNBA leans (Vegas over Dallas; Golden State over Indiana) and NBA Game 6 (Spurs vs. OKC) ideas like Spurs moneyline and OKC team total under.

    00:00 Cold Open Pep Talk
    01:27 Show Intro and Recap
    02:03 WNBA Bad Beat Rant
    05:04 Today’s Best Bet Over
    07:00 Angels Tigers Pitching Breakdown
    10:13 Leans Twins White Sox
    15:33 Discord and Community Talk
    16:15 Leans Braves Red Sox
    22:27 Fenway Heckler Storytime
    23:50 Leans Blue Jays Orioles
    29:04 Bassitt vs Orioles Angle
    30:24 Over Lean Jays Orioles
    31:46 Cubs Momentum vs Skenes
    33:10 Ray Matchup Concerns
    34:43 Can Cubs Hit Skenes
    37:47 Astros Rangers Breakdown
    39:00 Arreguetti Walk Warning
    41:14 Eovaldi and Under Lean
    43:45 WNBA Vegas at Dallas
    46:19 WNBA Fever at Valkyries
    49:07 NBA Game 6 Zigzag
    57:25 Best Bets and Signoff

    #bets #sportsbetting #daily #ncaaf #nfl #nhl #nba #ncaab #mlb #ncaa #wnba #playoffs #nbaplayoffs #nhlplayoffs
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    59 min
  • Wednesday BEST BETS | No Playoffs? | NHL Conference Finals & MLB & WNBA | 5/27/26

    Wednesday BEST BETS | No Playoffs? | NHL Conference Finals & MLB & WNBA | 5/27/26
    May 27 2026
    My links
    www.linktree.com/learntotoad
    www.patreon.com/learntotoad

    MLB
    LAA/DET F5 Under 4 -115

    WNBA
    CON +6.5

    May 27 Picks: Angels/Tigers F5 Under + Sun +6.5 | MLB, WNBA & NHL Leans (Toadstool Sports)

    Toad recaps a 2-1 day and discusses difficulties finding betting percentage data, then breaks down the Wednesday getaway-day MLB slate with notes on pitching matchups, bullpens, situational angles, and market splits, including leans on Miami–Toronto under (preferably F5), Cleveland avoiding a sweep, Cubs–Pirates over, and other matchups like Phillies–Padres, Rays–Orioles, Yankees–Royals, Astros–Rangers, and Rockies–Dodgers. His only MLB play is Angels–Tigers 1st five under 4 (around -115), citing strong starters José Soriano (road split) and Casey Mize (home split) and avoiding the bullpens. In the WNBA he adds Connecticut Sun +6.5 at Portland, emphasizing Portland’s return-home/letdown spot and prior close matchup, and he briefly leans Washington vs Seattle and mentions Liberty vs Phoenix. He also comments on the NHL Carolina–Montreal matchup and closes with channel plugs and record notes.

    00:00 Cold Open Parlay Blues
    01:39 Show Intro And Recap
    03:38 Today Card And Data Issues
    05:41 Marlins Blue Jays Under Look
    10:30 Nationals Guardians Sweep Spot
    15:40 Cardinals Brewers Unlisted Starter
    19:48 Mariners Athletics Stadium Concerns
    25:13 Why Home Run Props Suck
    28:29 Diamondbacks Giants Under Lean
    34:20 Phillies Padres Sanchez Vs Buehler
    41:38 Rays Orioles No Starter Listed
    43:30 Rays Orioles Breakdown
    44:51 Bullpen Game Uncertainty
    47:57 Angels Tigers First Five Under
    50:50 Soriano vs Mize Pitching Duel
    55:38 Cubs Pirates Over Lean
    57:18 Taillon and Chandler Concerns
    01:02:32 Red Sox Braves Rivalry
    01:05:15 Elder vs Earle Total Talk
    01:11:46 Reds Mets Bullpen Chaos
    01:17:57 Twins White Sox Debut Angle
    01:23:12 Yankees Royals After Blowout
    01:25:30 Cole Back In Form
    01:26:25 Cameron Versus Yankees
    01:27:50 Yankees Line And Total
    01:29:32 Astros Rangers Breakdown
    01:30:43 Burroughs Versus DeGrom
    01:33:38 Texas Side And Under
    01:35:16 Dodgers Rockies Mismatch
    01:36:38 Sugano Versus Ohtani
    01:38:55 Dodgers Price Too High
    01:40:50 WNBA Slate Begins
    01:41:03 Liberty Bounce Back Spot
    01:43:03 Sky Versus Tempo
    01:45:09 Dream Lynx Total Lean
    01:48:39 Sun Plus Points Play
    01:55:40 Mystics Storm Zigzag
    01:58:49 NHL Game On The Fly
    01:58:55 Canes Habs Series Read
    02:02:13 Final Plays And Wrap

    #bets #sportsbetting #daily #ncaaf #nfl #nhl #nba #ncaab #mlb #ncaa #wnba #playoffs #nbaplayoffs #nhlplayoffs
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    2 h et 6 min
  • Tuesday BEST BETS | Bring the Thunder | NBA & NHL Conference Finals & MLB | 5/26/26

    Tuesday BEST BETS | Bring the Thunder | NBA & NHL Conference Finals & MLB | 5/26/26
    May 26 2026
    My links
    www.linktree.com/learntotoad
    www.patreon.com/learntotoad

    NBA
    OKC TT Over 110.5 -110

    MLB
    ATL/BOS Under 8 -113
    STL/MIL Under 8 -118

    Toad Stool Sports (May 26): Braves-Red Sox Under, Cards-Brewers Under & OKC Team Total Over | MLB/NBA Picks

    Toad recaps going 2-0 Monday (Yankees-Royals 1st 5 under and Hurricanes OT win) to extend his 52-day run to 98-42-5, then breaks down Tuesday, May 26 card and key leans across MLB, NHL and NBA. Official plays: Braves-Red Sox under (discussing Strider vs. Suarez, rested bullpens and prior under results), Cardinals-Brewers under 8 (McGreevy vs. Harrison with both lineups unfamiliar), and Thunder team total over (improving to 110.5) in Game 5 vs. San Antonio, expecting OKC offensive regression and a higher-scoring game. He also notes leans like Detroit ML, Cincinnati 1st 5, Texas ML, and discusses other matchups including Yankees-Royals and various totals/side considerations, plus brief thoughts on Colorado-Vegas.

    00:00 Cold Open Intro
    01:27 Show Welcome Recap
    01:45 Yesterday Winners Breakdown
    03:15 Today Card Preview
    04:33 Baseball Slate Setup
    04:42 Nationals Guardians Preview
    09:07 Rays Orioles Total Lean
    13:52 Angels Tigers Spot
    19:22 Cubs Pirates Pitching Mess
    23:47 Braves Red Sox Under Play
    31:52 Key Numbers Betting Note
    32:15 Marlins Blue Jays Preview
    33:43 Marlins vs Jays Opener
    35:45 Reds vs Mets Pitching Guess
    36:46 Cincy First Five Angle
    40:01 Twins vs White Sox Total
    45:17 Yankees Mismatch in KC
    50:29 Cards Brewers Under Pick
    52:14 McGreevy vs Harrison Duel
    57:13 Astros Rangers Bounce Back
    01:03:56 Phillies Padres First Five
    01:10:10 Seattle A's Over Recap
    01:10:26 Mariners A's Breakdown
    01:11:27 Hancock vs Severino Angles
    01:15:17 Total and Side Lean
    01:16:23 Diamondbacks Giants Preview
    01:17:15 Erod vs Mahle Matchups
    01:20:19 Over and Moneyline Lean
    01:21:09 Rockies Dodgers Mismatch
    01:22:26 Freeland and Lauer Risks
    01:25:36 Dodgers Team Total Idea
    01:26:42 No WNBA Today Update
    01:26:51 Avalanche Knights Game 4
    01:31:04 Why No Bet on Total
    01:31:47 Thunder Spurs Game 5
    01:35:28 OKC Team Total Play
    01:40:42 Prop Note and Line Shop
    01:42:05 Plays Recap and Sign Off
    01:42:45 Links Patreon and Shows
    01:44:44 Final Outro

    #bets #sportsbetting #daily #ncaaf #nfl #nhl #nba #ncaab #mlb #ncaa #wnba #playoffs #nbaplayoffs #nhlplayoffs
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    1 h et 46 min