Épisodes

  • SUNDAY BEST BETS | No High Fives | MLB & WNBA | 8/2/26

    SUNDAY BEST BETS | No High Fives | MLB & WNBA | 8/2/26
    Aug 2 2026
    My links
    www.linktree.com/learntotoad
    www.patreon.com/learntotoad

    MLB
    PHI/BAL F5 Under 4 -118
    ARI/CLE F5 Under 4 +100
    MIL/LAA F5 Under 3.5 +100

    WNBA
    POR +1.5

    Sunday Betting Card (Aug 2): MLB First 5 Unders + Portland WNBA Pick | Toadstool Sports

    The host recaps a 2-1 day (Sky ML win, Mets loss, Red Sox/Dodgers under win) and builds a Sunday, Aug. 2 card focused on MLB first-five unders to avoid bullpens. Official plays: Phillies/Orioles 1st 5 under 4 (Wheeler vs. Bradish), Diamondbacks/Guardians 1st 5 under 4 (Merrill Kelly vs. Gavin Williams), and Brewers/Angels 1st 5 under 3.5 (Misiorowski vs. Ureña). He discusses market splits, bullpen usage, sweep-avoidance motivation, and trade-deadline “dream crusher” effects (notably Detroit after trading Skubal). Leans include Nationals 1st 5 vs. Braves, Cardinals/Blue Jays over, White Sox/Rays over, Pirates/Reds 1st 5 under, and Red Sox/Dodgers full-game under. In WNBA, he adds Portland vs. LA as a play, leans Minnesota vs. Indiana, and passes on other games.

    00:00 Cold Open Intro
    01:28 Yesterday Recap
    03:33 Card Strategy Unders
    04:14 Phillies Orioles F5 Under
    11:27 Nationals Braves Pitching
    18:19 Cardinals Jays Total Talk
    23:36 Dodgers Money Debate
    26:54 Dbacks Guardians F5 Under
    34:03 White Sox Rays Over Lean
    39:03 Marlins Mets Trade Rumors
    40:50 Alcantara vs Mets Chaos
    42:40 Market Read and Betting Approach
    45:00 Pirates Reds First Five Under
    48:58 Rangers Astros Sweep Spot
    53:45 Yankees Cubs Wind Total Trap
    59:30 Royals Rockies Coors Breakdown
    01:05:34 Slump Rant and Reset
    01:07:09 Brewers Angels First Five Under
    01:14:11 As Tigers Trade Deadline Angle
    01:21:03 A’s Tigers Market Read
    01:22:16 Twins Mariners Breakdown
    01:24:19 Bradley vs Kirby Leans
    01:29:36 Giants Padres Betting Angles
    01:30:52 Raup vs King Total Talk
    01:34:31 Red Sox Dodgers Spotlight
    01:37:40 Bennett Sheehan Under Case
    01:43:02 WNBA Slate Starts Here
    01:45:04 Fading Public Underdogs
    01:46:20 Portland Play Locked In
    01:50:39 Dallas Connecticut No Read
    01:53:41 Toronto Golden State Pass
    01:55:47 Card Recap and Sign Off

    #bets #sportsbetting #daily #ncaaf #nfl #nhl #nba #ncaab #mlb #ncaa #wnba
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    2 h
  • Saturday BEST BETS | Slow Saturday | MLB & WNBA | 8/1/26

    Saturday BEST BETS | Slow Saturday | MLB & WNBA | 8/1/26
    Aug 1 2026
    My links
    www.linktree.com/learntotoad
    www.patreon.com/learntotoad

    MLB
    NYM -126
    BOS/LAD Under 7.5 -105

    WNBA
    CHI +6.5

    Toadstool Sports (Aug 1): Mets ML, Red Sox–Dodgers Under, and WNBA Chicago +6.5 | Full MLB Card Breakdown

    On the Saturday, Aug. 1 episode of Toadstool Sports, the host recaps a losing day driven by two-out runs and moves into a full MLB slate breakdown with betting leans based on bullpen ranks, offensive metrics, home/road splits, and market percentages. He highlights Cardinals–Blue Jays as a likely low-scoring matchup, discusses White Sox–Rays pitching uncertainty, and analyzes several other games including Twins–Mariners, Pirates–Reds, Phillies–Orioles, Rangers–Astros, Diamondbacks–Guardians, Nationals–Braves, and Yankees–Cubs (noting an unusually low total at Wrigley). His official picks are Mets moneyline behind Zach Thornton versus Miami, Red Sox–Dodgers full-game under 7.5 (Yamamoto vs. Talley), and WNBA Chicago +6.5 vs. Las Vegas in a perceived sandwich spot.
    00:00 Cold Open Verse
    00:45 Show Intro and Reset
    01:36 Recapping Yesterday Loss
    03:00 Cardinals Blue Jays Breakdown
    03:50 Quinn Matthews Debut Scout
    05:58 Gausman and Betting Lean
    08:46 White Sox Rays Matchup
    10:21 Schultz Opener Scenario
    12:06 Rasmussen Edge and Price
    14:37 Mets Pick vs Marlins
    17:03 Phillips vs Thornton Analysis
    21:18 Market Read and Total Talk
    22:58 Twins Mariners TV Game
    25:37 Prelip vs Gilbert Under Lean
    31:27 Pirates Reds After Skenes
    32:39 Ashcraft Abbott and Lines
    36:06 Phillies Orioles Preview
    36:56 Sanchez vs Baz Setup
    39:08 Philly vs Baz Breakdown
    41:09 Battle of Texas Preview
    42:01 deGrom vs Blanco Angles
    46:21 Arizona Cleveland Value
    48:55 Messick Edge Pricey
    51:34 Nats Braves Over Talk
    58:10 Yankees Cubs Wind Game
    01:06:57 Slump Rant Reset
    01:08:41 Royals Rockies Coors Under
    01:14:43 Chat Food Side Quest
    01:15:08 Giants Padres Next Up
    01:16:53 Padres Bullpen Edge
    01:18:25 Giants Starter Breakdown
    01:19:58 Buehler Matchup Numbers
    01:21:08 Padres Moneyline Lean
    01:22:30 Red Sox Dodgers Under
    01:24:11 Bullpens And Yamamoto
    01:27:18 Talley Case For Under
    01:31:05 Market Read And Line
    01:32:53 Brewers Angels Handicap
    01:37:14 Tigers As Pitching Angles
    01:43:11 WNBA Chicago Plus Points
    01:50:19 Wrap Up And Plugs

    #bets #sportsbetting #daily #ncaaf #nfl #nhl #nba #ncaab #mlb #ncaa #wnba
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    1 h et 55 min
  • Friday BEST BETS | Hard to Figure Friday | MLB & WNBA | 7/31/26

    Friday BEST BETS | Hard to Figure Friday | MLB & WNBA | 7/31/26
    Jul 31 2026
    My links
    www.linktree.com/learntotoad
    www.patreon.com/learntotoad

    MLB
    PIT/CIN F5 Under 3.5 +100

    MLB Picks & Market Reads (Fri, July 31) | One Official Play: Pirates/Reds F5 Under

    Toad returns for Toadstool Sports on Friday, July 31, recapping a 1-0-1 day that included a push on Nationals F5 after surrendering two runs in the fifth and a win on the Marlins-Mets under. He says he dislikes the MLB board and ultimately gives just one official bet: Pirates/Reds first five innings under 3.5, preferring to wait for 4 due to trust in the Skeens vs. Greene starting matchup and distrust of both bullpens. He runs through situational angles, bullpen usage, offenses, starters, matchup history, line movement, and ticket/cash splits for multiple games (including Yankees-Cubs, Phillies-Orioles, Cardinals-Blue Jays, D-backs-Guardians, White Sox-Rays, Marlins-Mets, Nationals-Braves, Rangers-Astros, Royals-Rockies, Brewers-Angels, Tigers-A’s, Giants-Padres, Red Sox-Dodgers, and Twins-Mariners) and briefly discusses three WNBA games, offering leans but no official plays.

    00:00 Intro Song Cold Open
    01:28 Show Opening Recap
    04:09 Yankees Cubs Breakdown
    10:59 Best Bet Pirates Reds Under
    19:15 Phillies Orioles Preview
    24:24 Cardinals Blue Jays Spot
    31:56 Diamondbacks Guardians Edge
    37:15 White Sox Rays Mismatch
    43:38 Tampa vs White Sox Lean
    44:52 Marlins Mets Over Angle
    45:50 Junk vs Peralta Breakdown
    48:55 Market Read and Total
    50:19 Nationals Braves First Five
    52:13 Griffin vs Elder Matchups
    56:16 Washington F5 and Line Move
    58:13 Rangers Astros Spot Factors
    01:01:12 Eovaldi vs Brown Pitching
    01:05:43 Royals Rockies Coors Chaos
    01:08:54 Wacha vs Sugano Totals
    01:15:47 Slump Rant Reset
    01:17:19 Brewers Angels Price Debate
    01:18:59 Drohon vs Johnson Preview
    01:21:44 Run Line and Team Total Ideas
    01:23:21 Podcast Shoutouts Transition
    01:23:41 A’s Series Unders
    01:25:05 Tigers at A’s Breakdown
    01:30:35 Totals and Market Read
    01:32:07 Giants at Padres Chaos
    01:33:26 Whisenhunt vs Bullpen Game
    01:37:46 Red Sox at Dodgers Preview
    01:42:50 Twins at Mariners Spot
    01:49:46 WNBA Slate Leans
    01:57:30 Final Pick and Wrap

    #bets #sportsbetting #daily #ncaaf #nfl #nhl #nba #ncaab #mlb #ncaa #wnba
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    2 h et 2 min
  • Thursday BEST BETS | Thursday Throw Up | MLB & WNBA | 7/30/26

    Thursday BEST BETS | Thursday Throw Up | MLB & WNBA | 7/30/26
    Jul 30 2026
    My links
    www.linktree.com/learntotoad
    www.patreon.com/learntotoad

    MLB
    WSH F5 +114
    MIA/NYM Under 7 -102

    MLB Picks & Betting Breakdown (Thu July 30): Nationals F5 vs Braves + Marlins/Mets Under
    Toad recaps a rough prior slate (including a correct Phillies first-five that still lost late, a Brewers-Giants no play after a starter scratch, and missed totals), then breaks down Thursday’s MLB card with notes on bullpen usage, home/road splits, market percentages, and pitching matchups. He leans toward Tampa Bay behind Shane McClanahan versus a Texas bullpen game, considers first-five unders in Royals-Twins and Yankees-White Sox, and discusses Cubs-Cardinals angles and totals. His two official plays are Washington first five moneyline (+114) fading Atlanta off a doubleheader/return-home spot with Jake Irvin vs Grant Holmes, and the full-game under 7 in Marlins-Mets behind Yuri Perez vs Nolan McLain. He also briefly reviews other late games and touches on WNBA matchups without making plays.

    00:00 Cold Open Intro
    01:28 Yesterday Recap
    03:52 Today Slate Setup
    04:37 Rangers Rays Breakdown
    08:35 Royals Twins Under Lean
    12:51 Yankees White Sox Under
    18:35 Cubs Cardinals Handicapping
    24:38 Best Bet Nationals F5
    34:40 Final Play Marlins Mets Under
    41:52 Mets Marlins Under
    42:27 Mets Side And Bullpen
    43:38 Pirates Reds Over Lean
    45:13 Bullpen Game Breakdown
    46:47 Lowder Vs Pirates Data
    49:46 Red Sox A's Handicapping
    51:48 Gray Vs Barnett Angles
    56:46 Break And Slump Rant
    58:44 Giants Padres Preview
    01:04:34 Mariners Dodgers Under Talk
    01:11:13 WNBA Prime Doubleheader
    01:18:41 Final Picks And Signoff

    #bets #sportsbetting #daily #ncaaf #nfl #nhl #nba #ncaab #mlb #ncaa #wnba
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    1 h et 22 min
  • Wednesday BEST BETS | Spraying It | MLB & WNBA | 7/29/26

    Wednesday BEST BETS | Spraying It | MLB & WNBA | 7/29/26
    Jul 29 2026
    My links
    www.linktree.com/learntotoad
    www.patreon.com/learntotoad

    MLB
    PHI F5 -0.5 -115
    MIL/SF Under 7.5 -105
    COL F5 +114
    CLE/CIN Over 9 -104

    MLB Picks & Betting Breakdown (Wed, July 29): Phillies F5, Brewers–Giants Under, Rockies F5 + Over CLE–CIN

    Toad recaps an 0–2 day, blaming Shane Bieber’s six-walk first inning and a Connecticut WNBA spread loss driven by a major free-throw disparity, then skips the WNBA card today due to limited matchups. He gives four MLB plays, focusing on avoiding weak or taxed bullpens and noting several opener situations: Phillies -0.5 first five vs Miami behind Jesús Luzardo; Brewers–Giants full-game under 7.5 citing Shane Drohan vs Logan Webb and Webb’s strong history vs Milwaukee; Rockies first five moneyline (+114) vs San Diego behind rookie Gabriel Hughes against an uncertain Padres pitching plan likely involving Griffin Canning; and Guardians–Reds over 9 due to heavily used bullpens from a doubleheader plus Joey Cantillo vs Brady Singer. He also discusses leans and market notes across other games and promotes his socials, audio feeds, Patreon, and other channels.

    00:00 Cold Open Rant
    01:28 Intro and Bad Beats
    03:35 Today’s Card Setup
    04:39 Phillies vs Marlins Pick
    12:42 Dbacks vs Pirates Breakdown
    18:46 Blue Jays vs Nationals Lean
    24:10 Braves vs Mets Doubleheader
    33:37 Orioles vs Tigers Under Talk
    41:01 Brewers Giants Under
    44:44 Webb Dominates Brewers
    48:05 Rockies First Five Shot
    50:00 Hughes Versus Canning
    54:55 Rangers Rays Lean
    57:39 Opener And Seymour
    01:00:43 Guardians Reds Over
    01:03:29 Cantillo Singer Breakdown
    01:08:00 Twins Royals No Bet
    01:13:55 Slump Rant Reset
    01:15:26 Yankees White Sox Preview
    01:16:37 Yankees White Sox Breakdown
    01:20:32 Cubs Cardinals Series Spot
    01:25:32 Astros Angels Sweep Angle
    01:30:48 Red Sox Athletics Total Talk
    01:36:39 Mariners Dodgers Pitching Duel
    01:41:43 WNBA Lines And Leans
    01:47:19 Final Card And Wrap Up

    #bets #sportsbetting #daily #ncaaf #nfl #nhl #nba #ncaab #mlb #ncaa #wnba
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    1 h et 51 min
  • Tuesday BEST BETS | Return of the Ladies | MLB & WNBA | 7/28/26

    Tuesday BEST BETS | Return of the Ladies | MLB & WNBA | 7/28/26
    Jul 28 2026
    My links
    www.linktree.com/learntotoad
    www.patreon.com/learntotoad

    MLB
    TOR/WSH F5 Under 4.5 +106

    WNBA
    CON +6.5

    MLB Picks & WNBA Return (July 28): Blue Jays/Nationals F5 Under + Sun vs Mystics

    Toad recaps going 1-0-1 the previous day (a Mets first-five push despite a 14–3 win and an Angels first-five win before a bullpen collapse) and previews Tuesday, July 28 with selective betting. His only MLB play is Blue Jays vs Nationals first five under 4.5, citing Shane Bieber’s improved recent form, Cade Cavalli’s strong July, unfamiliarity edges, and avoiding taxed bullpens (Toronto used six relievers, Washington’s pen is weak). He discusses several leans without adding them to the card, including Cleveland in a doubleheader, Twins first five, Brewers, and other matchup/situational notes across the slate. With the WNBA back, his lone WNBA play is Connecticut +6.5 vs Washington, pointing to a low total, post-break momentum/letdown angles, and scheduling spots.

    00:00 Cold Open Betting Blues
    01:27 Show Intro and Recap
    03:31 Today’s Card Overview
    04:24 Guardians Reds Game 1
    09:19 Guardians Reds Game 2
    13:22 Diamondbacks Pirates Breakdown
    18:00 Orioles Tigers Matchup
    22:38 Phillies Marlins Aftermath
    29:07 Rangers Rays Rest Edge
    35:12 Best Bet Jays Nats F5 Under
    39:50 Cavalli First Five Under
    41:55 Braves Mets Matchup
    43:55 Sale Versus Mets Splits
    45:13 Scott Form And Value
    47:45 Royals Twins Pitching
    49:54 Bradley Edge First Five
    52:09 Yankees White Sox Bullpens
    53:23 Cole Versus Kay Market
    57:36 Cubs Cardinals Breakdown
    01:02:23 Slump Rant Reset
    01:03:54 Astros Angels First Five
    01:09:54 Red Sox As Young Lefties
    01:12:09 Bennett Versus Jump
    01:16:55 Under And Sox Philosophy
    01:18:33 Wade Boggs Talk
    01:19:39 Padres Rockies Breakdown
    01:25:04 Brewers Giants Pick
    01:29:59 Mariners Dodgers Value
    01:36:17 WNBA Best Bet
    01:40:30 Other WNBA Leans
    01:50:31 Plays Recap Outro
    01:52:17 Steam Hack Rant
    01:54:32 Final Sign Off

    #bets #sportsbetting #daily #ncaaf #nfl #nhl #nba #ncaab #mlb #ncaa #wnba
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    1 h et 58 min
  • Monday BEST BETS | Major League Monday | MLB | 7/27/26

    Monday BEST BETS | Major League Monday | MLB | 7/27/26
    Jul 27 2026
    My links
    www.linktree.com/learntotoad
    www.patreon.com/learntotoad

    MLB
    NYM F5 -106
    LAA F5 -108

    MLB Picks & Breakdown (Mon, July 27) | First 5 Bets: Mets ML & Angels ML + Kirby vs Rocker, Wheeler Mismatch

    Toad returns with Toadstool Sports for Monday, July 27th, recapping a 2–1 day (Cleveland–Tampa under cashes easily, Pirates 1st 5 wins, Rangers bullpen blows the Seattle–Texas under) and discussing slate context across multiple MLB games with bullpen/offense ranks, market movement, and situational spots. He leans Seattle over Texas behind George Kirby vs Kumar Rocker but ultimately keeps it off the card. The two official plays are both first five sides: Mets 1st 5 moneyline vs Atlanta (backing rookie Zach Thornton over Martín Pérez) and Angels 1st 5 moneyline vs Houston (Walbert Ureña over Tatsuya Imai), explicitly avoiding weaker bullpen exposure. He also touches on Phillies–Marlins with Wheeler, Toronto–Washington with Scherzer’s struggles, and other matchups before closing with channel plugs.

    00:00 Cold Open Parlay Blues
    01:28 Show Intro Recent Run
    01:47 Yesterday Recap Bullpen Pain
    03:46 Monday Slate Setup
    04:17 Mariners Rangers Breakdown
    09:11 Diamondbacks Pirates Handicapping
    15:15 Orioles Tigers Matchup
    21:22 Phillies Marlins Fade Spot
    27:47 Blue Jays Nationals Scherzer Watch
    34:13 Battle of Ohio Preview
    41:22 Best Bet Mets First Five
    43:04 Mets First Five Angle
    44:17 Fade Martin Perez
    46:30 Back Zach Thornton
    48:12 Market Read And Total
    49:22 Break And Slump Rant
    51:16 Yankees White Sox Breakdown
    57:40 Cubs Cardinals Uncertainty
    01:04:11 Angels First Five Play
    01:11:40 Red Sox A's Price Trap
    01:18:57 Brewers Giants First Five Under
    01:24:25 Final Plays And Sign Off

    #bets #sportsbetting #daily #ncaaf #nfl #nhl #nba #ncaab #mlb #ncaa #wnba
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    1 h et 28 min
  • Sunday BEST BETS | Get Down | MLB | 7/26/26

    Sunday BEST BETS | Get Down | MLB | 7/26/26
    Jul 26 2026
    My links
    www.linktree.com/learntotoad
    www.patreon.com/learntotoad

    MLB
    CLE/TB Under 7 -107
    PIT F5 -0.5 -105
    SEA/TEX Under 7 +100

    Toadstool Sports (July 26) — MLB Picks: CLE/TB Under 7, Pirates F5 -0.5, SEA/TEX Under 7

    Toad recaps a 3–0 day on Saturday with wins on Nationals F5, Orioles F5, and Dodgers/Mets under, then breaks down Sunday afternoon MLB betting angles with a contrarian, market-based approach. He details pitching matchups, bullpen usage, offensive rankings, motivation spots (avoid sweeps, bounce-back after blowouts), and ticket/cash splits across several games, including Cleveland–Tampa, Arizona–Washington, Atlanta–Baltimore, Cubs–Pirates, Toronto–Boston, Kansas City–Detroit, Dodgers–Mets, Padres–Marlins, A’s–Twins, Rockies–Brewers, Astros–White Sox, Reds–Cardinals, Angels–Giants, and Yankees–Phillies. His official plays are Cleveland–Tampa under 7, Pirates first five -0.5, and Seattle–Texas under 7, with additional leans discussed. He closes with plugs for social, audio, Patreon, and other channels, plus brief WNBA and TV chatter.

    00:00 Cold Open Intro
    01:28 Show Welcome Recap
    03:31 Contrarian Betting Mindset
    04:29 Guardians Rays Under
    07:38 Pitching Breakdown
    11:48 Dbacks Nats Preview
    18:08 Braves Orioles Lean
    22:40 Pirates First Five Play
    28:53 Red Sox Jays Analysis
    34:34 Next Game Tease
    34:44 Royals Tigers Breakdown
    35:29 Avila vs Valdez Angles
    38:07 First Five Market Read
    39:40 Dodgers Mets Sweep Spot
    41:30 Sheehan Peralta Matchup
    44:29 Mets Value Run Line
    45:57 Padres Marlins Streak
    47:22 Buehler vs Junk Risks
    51:55 A's Twins Total Confusion
    53:45 Springs vs Prelip Leans
    58:06 Rockies Brewers Mismatch
    58:51 Freeland vs Mierowski Pricing
    01:03:05 Break Then Slump Rant
    01:03:48 Slump Spiral Update
    01:04:54 Astros vs White Sox Breakdown
    01:10:19 Reds vs Cardinals Leans
    01:14:47 Mariners Rangers Under Pick
    01:22:09 Angels Giants First Five Angle
    01:26:49 Yankees Phillies Night Game
    01:32:43 Plays Recap and Sign Off
    01:33:40 WNBA Rant and Random Chatter
    01:34:38 Final Goodbye Message

    #bets #sportsbetting #daily #ncaaf #nfl #nhl #nba #ncaab #mlb #ncaa #wnba
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    1 h et 36 min