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The Milk Check

The Milk Check

De : T.C. Jacoby & Co. - Dairy Traders
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Experienced dairy traders discuss current market trends that affect payments to dairy farmers. Economie
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  • Tim the Dairy Farmer Wants Answers

    Tim the Dairy Farmer Wants Answers
    Oct 27 2026
    Tim the Dairy Farmer is an ag comedian, but he’s not laughing about milk prices. After nearly 35 years in the dairy business, he’s seen the highs, the lows and everything in between. Now, with shrinking milk checks, rising input costs and uncertainty about the future, he’s got questions. Is the American dairy farmer getting squeezed out, or gearing up for a golden era? In this episode, we cover: Why milk checks are feeling smaller, and when prices might improveHow Class III and Class IV pricing creates different realities for dairy farmersWhy protein demand and international exports are reshaping the dairy industryWhether the U.S. can maintain its competitive advantage Plus, Tim shares how he and his brother went from milking 500 cows to finding success in a smaller, niche dairy operation. For dairy farmers wondering whether the industry’s best days are behind it, this conversation offers a little perspective and some hope about a once in a generation change for dairy. Listen to The Milk Check episode 108: Tim the Dairy Farmer Wants Answers. Got questions? We’d love to hear them. Submit below, and we might answer it on the show. Ask The Milk Check Episode 108 Transcription: Intro commercial: [00:00:00] For one part of the supply chain to be successful, everyone has to be. My superpower is practical application of data and analysis. I believe firmly that Jacoby’s success is because we help our suppliers and our buyers be successful. I’m Mike Brown, and I love working for T.C. Jacoby & Co. because I get to help people make their businesses more successful. Ted Jacoby III: Coming up on The Milk Check. Josh White: Have any of you ever tried stand-up comedy? No. Not on purpose. Ted Jacoby III: Welcome to the Milk Check from T.C. Jacoby & Co., your complete guide to dairy markets, from the milking parlor to the supermarket shelf. I’m Ted Jacoby. Let’s dive in. Ted Jacoby III: This week, we have Tim the Dairy Farmer with us. Tim, it’s great to have you with us. Thanks for joining us today. Tim Moffett: Thanks, Ted. It’s good to be back. I don’t know if you guys lost a bet and this was part of your deal to fulfill the contract, but yeah, everybody, I’m a comedian, I’m a dairy farmer just like many of you that are probably listening to this. So, let’s see what happens. Ted Jacoby III: Tim, I don’t think you’re gonna feel too far out of your element, because anybody who’s been trying to predict dairy markets lately has probably felt like a comedian as well. As you’re thinking about the milk check that you’ve been getting on a monthly basis, what’s the question on the tip of your mind that maybe we can help answer in terms of what’s driving that milk check? Tim Moffett: As far as my milk check goes, I’m just happy the last one had a comma. I think everybody wants to know when the hell is it gonna get better. When milk prices are bad farmers are like, “Is somebody in this chain making all the money? Where’s it going?” Mike Brown: Fats lowered, which has hurt everybody as far as actual milk check compared to the 3.5 price, ’cause fats were so much less. Feed costs are up, energy’s obscene. So, I’m hearing a lot of grumpy farmers right now, particularly if they’re harvesting, ’cause of their cost of harvest. A lot of them are struggling with diesel. That’s what I hear. The cash flow’s tough right now. They’re a little nervous about the beef market. How much strength that’s gonna have moving forward. So, they’re not feeling particularly loved. On the product side the markets, we’ve had a spike again. We’ve seen some issues with cheese that other people here are experts on can talk about. But how much of that is actually accruing to revenue as far as margin for plants? It’s mixed. If you’re in the milk protein business, I don’t care if it’s milk proteins or whey proteins, you’re probably making some money because those markets are way higher than other commodity markets. If you are in the commodity market making cheddar cheese or butter, things aren’t so great. You’re probably struggling a bit. So it’s kinda mixed across the field and somewhat regionally. Areas with high cheese production, because Class III’s been so low, are hurting more than people that are high Class I, II, and IV, for example, the Northeast. So it’s kinda regional. Ted Jacoby III: If you’re in a high Class III cheese-producing region like Wisconsin that milk check feels a little bit small. But if you’re in a Class IV-dominant order like California, or a Class I-dominant order like Florida, that pricing probably still feels pretty good right now. I’ll go ahead and jump in and ask the next question since we’re talking about Class IV prices and how, those farmers that are getting something along the lines of a Class IV price are doing a little bit better. Diego, this non-fat price has been great. Is it gonna hold up? Diego Carvallo: Maybe I ...
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    31 min
  • Sacudida en el Mercado Lácteo: ¿Qué Está Pasando en México y EE. UU.?

    Sacudida en el Mercado Lácteo: ¿Qué Está Pasando en México y EE. UU.?
    Oct 16 2026
    ¿Qué está provocando tanta volatilidad en el mercado lácteo de México y Estados Unidos? En este episodio en español de The Milk Check, los expertos de T.C. Jacoby & Co., Diego Carvallo, Yara Morales y Miguel Aragon, analizan los últimos movimientos del mercado lácteo, desde la disponibilidad de leche y las fluctuaciones de precios hasta los desafíos logísticos que están afectando a compradores y productores. Temas destacados de este episodio: Oferta de leche: ¿Cómo está evolucionando la producción en Estados Unidos y qué impacto podría tener una reducción de las compras de Liconsa en México?Mercado del queso: Después de una fuerte caída, los precios comienzan a recuperarse. Analizamos la creciente demanda de mozzarella, queso para reproceso y quesos destinados a Sudamérica.Leche descremada en polvo: Precios elevados, menor demanda y fuertes movimientos en los futuros. ¿Qué podemos esperar para los próximos meses?Logística y tipo de cambio: El aumento de los costos de transporte, la escasez de unidades y las fluctuaciones cambiarias están complicando las importaciones de productos lácteos.Mantequilla y proteínas lácteas: Exploramos la recuperación de la demanda de mantequilla, la corrección de precios del WPC80 y las oportunidades en el mercado de sueros y proteínas.¿Hacia dónde se dirige el mercado lácteo? Acompáñanos para conocer las tendencias, los desafíos y las oportunidades que están transformando la industria en México, Estados Unidos y América Latina. ¡Suscríbete a The Milk Check! Mantente informado sobre los mercados lácteos internacionales con análisis y perspectivas de los expertos de T.C. Jacoby & Co. Visítanos: https://www.jacoby.com ¿Tienes preguntas? Nos encantaría escucharlas. Envíalas aquí abajo y podríamos responderlas en el programa. Pregúntale a The Milk Check Transcript: Diego Carvallo: [00:00:00] Buenas tardes a todos. Les saluda Diego Carvallo junto con Miguel Aragón y Yara Morales del equipo de T.C. Jacoby & Co. y les damos la bienvenida al pódcast de mediados de octubre del 2026. Hoy es día 13 de octubre con un mercado supermovido para todos los productos y inclusive para las monedas. Y pues vamos a ver esta conversación, que será muy interesante, a qué conclusiones llegamos. Miguel Aragón: Hola, Diego. Hola, Yara. Aquí estamos otra vez con algo de información de los mercados. Yara Morales: Sí. Hola, Diego. Hola, Miguel. Siempre un placer estar aquí con ustedes y compartiendo la información que podamos tener aquí para nuestros clientes y toda la audiencia que nos acompaña. Diego Carvallo: Amén. Bueno, para comenzar, creo que interesante que comencemos hablando como siempre de la parte de leche fluida de Estados Unidos, que, hay un mercado bastante interesante, bastante cambiante, una vez que pasamos la temporada de baja producción. Em, la información que recibimos de nuestro equipo de, fluida es que a medida que van mejorando las temperaturas en la zona del Midwest, en la zona de California, están comenzando a haber una estabilización y una pequeña mejora en los volúmenes y en los componentes de la leche. Sin embargo, todavía es muy temprano como para ver algo significativo o algo que llene las plantas, eh, de queso o de secado. Em, comenzamos a ver un poquito más de leche en la zona de Wisconsin y esperamos que durante los próximos meses, eh, ya estamos teniendo temperaturas de cincuenta, cincuenta y cinco grados, eh, durante el día y un poco más bajo en la zona de, de Chicago y del Midwest, lo cual equivale a temperaturas de menos de quince grados centígrados, em, va a comenzar a volver la leche. Em, entiendo en México la situación todavía sigue bastante ajustada. ¿Han, han escuchado algo en cuanto a la leche para México? Yara Morales: Sí, definitivamente es la temporada, la temporada que escasea bastante la leche es temporada de lluvias también. La verdad es que he escuchado que ha habido muy poca, muy poca leche fluida. Eh, aquí la situación es que el rumor que se está comentando es que Liconsa probablemente, eh, por cuestiones económicas, probablemente cancele algunos contratos o a lo mejor no los cancela todos, pero sí reducirá la compra de la leche fluida. Entonces habrá más, un poquito más de leche fluida en el mercado. Es producto de calidad que, que aunque sea de calidad, probablemente estará fluctuando entre, entre unos siete, ocho pesos por litro. Entonces eso, eso va a marcar un poquito la diferencia. Mhm. Diego Carvallo: Eso es muy interesante y lo vamos a hablar ahorita porque creemos que puede tener repercusión en, en varios de los productos Yara Morales: Sí, definitivamente ¿ Diego Carvallo: Les parece bien si comenzamos con quesos? Eeem, creo que es uno de los mercados más competitivos y más interesantes en este momento. ¿Cómo lo estás viendo, Miguel? ¿Qué ves, qué ves en la- Miguel Aragón: Definitivamente. Definitivamente hemos visto cómo el queso ...
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    20 min
  • We Have a Cheese Problem

    We Have a Cheese Problem
    Sep 23 2026
    With more cheese competing for buyers around the world, could the global market be headed for a price war? U.S. cheese plants are running full, whey protein demand is supporting production and exports have been strong. But at home, cheese demand remains soft. That puts more pressure on exports to keep product moving. In episode 106 of The Milk Check, host Ted Jacoby III sits down with the T.C. Jacoby & Co. cheese team to discuss what happens when growing U.S. production meets intensifying competition overseas. In this episode, we cover: Why international buyers are asking for more cheese varieties, and where that could create opportunities for U.S. suppliersHow freight costs and the strength of the U.S. dollar could make American cheese less competitive overseasWhat happens when stronger milk production in New Zealand and continued competition from Europe could puts pressure on global cheese prices Listen to The Milk Check episode 106, “We Have a Cheese Problem,” for the T.C. Jacoby & Co. team’s take on what could be ahead for the global cheese market. Got questions? We’d love to hear them. Submit below, and we might answer it on the show. Ask The Milk Check Transcript: [Intro commercial text not included] Ted Jacoby III: Coming up on The Milk Check. Are you saying if we produce 2% more cheese and it all has to go into the export market, it’s gonna be a price war? Brianne Breed: Yes. Ted Jacoby III: Welcome to the Milk Check from T.C. Jacoby & Co., your complete guide to dairy markets, from the milking parlor to the supermarket shelf. I’m Ted Jacoby. Let’s dive in. Ted Jacoby III: Hello, everybody, and welcome to The Milk Check. Today is September 21st. Today we’re gonna talk cheese. I’ve got my cheese team here today. We’ve got Brianne Breed, Jeff Daanen, Miguel Aragón, Jennifer Kuo, and Michael Brown joining us. We even have Diego Carvallo to help us talk a little bit about international. But we’ve talked a lot about cheese, we’ve talked a lot about how much cheese we’re producing and how whey protein seems to be driving cheese production right now. But I thought we’d get some really great insights from our cheese team in terms of what they’re seeing out there. Bree, I’ll start with you. If you had to explain the U.S. cheese market right now without even looking at CME prices, how would you describe it? Brianne Breed: There’s a lot of cheese out there right now, especially a lot of cheddar. The large plants that have expanded over the last few years are running very full, and a lot of that is because of what you mentioned: with whey being in high demand. We’re finding a lot of cheese out in the market. Exports have been very strong. I think that there’s been a really big push over the last few years to get more and more cheese exported from the United States, and we’ve been very successful. Mozzarella seems to be growing every year. But at the same time, domestic demand has definitely slowed down. Restaurants lost maybe 1% to 2% foot traffic this year. Retail demand is also down to flat. We’re in this weird spot right now where we have a lot of cheese being made and we’re exporting a lot, but domestically, we’re not consuming as much as we have in the past. Ted Jacoby III: What’s going on in the domestic market? Are we seeing any growth anywhere? Brianne Breed: We are seeing growth in a few of the pizza chains that have been making some good pushes using mozzarella and some good deals just because, you go to out to a restaurant right now and it’s very expensive to feed a family of four, where you can just order a couple of pizzas and have your fixed cost. You know what you’re paying. And so pizza’s been doing better than it was the last couple of years, which I guess you could say is great because it was struggling for a couple of years there. But as far as anything positive domestically, it’s been a struggle, I think, on the cheese side. The positives are really more on the powder side and on the UF side. The protein demand for Americans right now is just crazy. I’ve never seen it like this, and we’re seeing cheese being made just so we can get the whey stream, and we’re seeing some cheese manufacturers lose some of their farmers because those farmers are actually taking their milk to other plants that maybe are making UF milk to go into protein beverages. Ted Jacoby III: Mike, I’m gonna ask you this question. One thing that seems really odd to me is that we’ve been talking about protein a lot. The whole nation seems to wanna be talking about protein, but it doesn’t seem to me that domestic cheese demand is participating in the big increase in demand for protein, yet for years we’ve always talked about cheese as a protein, comparing it to meat, in terms of where it fits on the pyramid. Mike Brown As far as cheese and protein, people just don’t affiliate it as a protein source like they do, for example, all the nutrition ...
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    24 min
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