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The Milk Check

The Milk Check

De : T.C. Jacoby & Co. - Dairy Traders
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 Experienced dairy traders discuss current market trends that affect payments to dairy farmers. Economie
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    • Valley Queen on casein vs. whey. Plus, where whey goes from here.

      Valley Queen on casein vs. whey. Plus, where whey goes from here.
      Dec 28 2025
      In this episode of The Milk Check, Ted Jacoby III welcomes Lloyd Metzger and TJ Jacoby of Valley Queen Cheese Company for a deep dive into the science, functionality and future of dairy proteins. The conversation starts at the molecular level – the difference between casein and whey – and builds toward the real-world implications for product developers, processors and nutrition brands. We cover: Why casein is built to carry calcium (and whey isn’t)How heat and pH change protein behaviorFast versus slow digestion and why both matterThe role of whey protein in muscle maintenance, aging and GLP-1 nutritionWhat pro cream really is and why its value may be underestimatedWhy cellular agriculture is more niche than threat If you work in dairy, food formulation or nutrition, this is a protein conversation worth digesting. Got questions? We’d love to hear them. Submit below, and we might answer it on the show. Ask The Milk Check TMC-Intro-final[00:00:00]Ted Jacoby III: Hi everybody, and thank you for joining us today for this very special recording of the Milk Check Podcast. Today, our topic is: what is the future of dairy proteins? And we have two very special guests. The first is Lloyd Metzger, VP of Quality and Technical Services for Valley Queen Cheese Company, and formerly Professor of Dairy Science at South Dakota State University. And the second, particularly special to me, is my son TJ Jacoby, Whey Technologist for Valley Queen. A South Dakota State graduate. Someone who has been interested in dairy proteins since his first biology class in high school. Guys, thank you for joining us today and welcome to The Milk Check. Lloyd Metzger: Glad to be here. TJ Jacoby: Good to be on, Dad. Ted Jacoby III: It’s December 18th, 2025. Milk production in the US is up 4%. Milk production in Europe is up something similar. Milk production in New Zealand is up. Milk production in Argentina is up. We are definitely in an [00:01:00] environment today where the supply of milk and dairy is overwhelming demand, at least for the moment. Cheese prices are near historical lows. Butter prices are near historical lows. Nonfat milk, skim milk powder prices are on the low end of the range. This market is a market that feels heavy, and I think most people out there would say, it almost feels like even though we’re at lows, we may actually go lower before we go higher. And yet, on the other hand, there are whey proteins, Josh, if I’m not mistaken, whey proteins just hit historical highs. Josh White: Maybe the highest prices we’ve ever seen for whey protein isolate and WPC 80. Ted Jacoby III: So, we have an environment where the demand on the protein side is extremely strong, and the trends on protein consumption are extremely strong and really feel like they’re gonna be around for quite some time. We’ve got baby boomers retiring and whether it’s because of GLP-1s or it’s just a general knowledge and understanding of what human nutritional needs are as people age, they know that they need more protein in their [00:02:00] diet. So, it begs the question: what is going on with dairy proteins and whey proteins and how is this going to evolve in such a unique market where demand is so strong for protein right now? And so, I’m gonna ask the question first. What’s the difference at a molecular level between whey proteins and milk proteins? Because when we’re in an environment like we are now, where you’ve got the demand really, really high, you also have a market that’s gonna start looking for alternatives, simply because prices are so high. What is the difference between milk proteins in general and whey protein specifically? Lloyd Metzger: It’s important to talk about from a functional perspective how the proteins are different. I’m sure we’ll get into the nutritional differences between those proteins as well. It’s important to understand what’s driving those differences in functional characteristics. And it’s really all about calcium. The casein system is designed to carry calcium. The whey protein system is not designed to carry calcium. That differentiates the two groups of [00:03:00] proteins and makes their properties very different. TJ Jacoby: I’ll explain it like this. Milk proteins, there’s two classes of proteins, right? There’s casein and then there’s whey. The casein is used to make cheese, and then the whey protein is what comes off. So, the whey protein is everything that is not used to make cheese. So, the reason why casein proteins works so well for cheese because those proteins like to fall together in these spheres, they like to stick to one another. They like to stick to one another ’cause they have certain groups that latch onto the calcium and then they bridge with phosphate. When they do, they have multiple proteins, different types of casein proteins that bridge together with phosphate and then based on their repulsion forces, they stick together. Calcium and...
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      28 min
    • One Bull in a Barn Full of Bears

      One Bull in a Barn Full of Bears
      Dec 11 2025
      There’s milk everywhere: more milk in the U.S., Europe and New Zealand than a year ago, soft Class IV, and Class III futures that could slip into the $13s once you plug in today’s spot cheese and whey. With a long milk wave crashing over the dairy industry, will farmers start culling cows and leaving stalls empty? Inside the episode, the team churns through: Why strong balance sheets, paid-down debt and high cow values could delay a production pullbackHow lower feed costs shift the breakeven – but can’t fully offset falling milk checksWhy Western and cheese-focused regions like the Pacific Northwest, California and Idaho may struggle firstHow WPC 80, WPI and clear whey proteins have become the lone bulls – and why capacity constraints limit the industry’s responseWhy there are limits to what customers can pay for whey, and where substitution is already happening It’s a barn full of bears on butter, cheese and fluid milk, but the protein complex is still flexing. The question is how long that can last? Tune in to The Milk Check episode 88: One bull in a barn full of bears to hear how our traders are navigating a market that’s bearish on volume but still bullish on protein. Got questions? We’d love to hear them. Submit below, and we might answer it on the show. Ask The Milk Check Ted Jacoby III: Welcome, everybody, to The Milk Check. It is December 5th. We’re gonna talk about markets today. And rather than boring you and having the same conversation we had three weeks ago, everything is still bearish. There’s milk everywhere. There’s milk all over the U.S. There’s milk all over Europe. There’s milk all over New Zealand. There’s a whole bunch more milk this year than last year. Things are long. It’s very likely things are gonna get longer before they get shorter. Today we have some of our usual suspects. My brother Gus has joined us today. We’ve got Josh White, we’ve got Joe Maixner, we’ve got Diego Carvallo. And, of course, myself. Looking forward to a great conversation. So, rather than discussing how bearish we can be on these markets, my question, and I’m gonna start by throwing this question at my brother, Gus, is Gus, how long do you think it’s gonna take for dairy farmers to start culling cows and for this milk [00:01:00] production to slow down? Gus Jacoby: I feel like milk price and farm economics are completely contingent on that and how bad those farm economics get with respect to the milk price. Class III is still relatively high. Obviously, Class IV is pretty poor right now. The way I see it, dairymen, at this moment in time, still have fairly strong balance sheets. So, the recent low prices haven’t affected ’em all that much. So, I don’t expect their behavior with respect to culling and whatnot to change. But I think in five, six months from now, assuming that the milk price is at or lower, and quite frankly, I think Class III probably does need to get a bit lower, you’ll start to see some of that behavior change. If I had to guess, either as early as early summer, but as late as maybe mid-fall, if farm economics don’t change, we’ll start to see dairymen begin to leave stalls open. I mean, they’re gonna cull a cow, collect that beef revenue that they can grab, and not necessarily buy the expensive heifer. Ted Jacoby III: You’re thinking it’s gonna take about six months for dairy farmers [00:02:00] to get to the point where they feel like they need to increase the amount of cows they’re selling in order to meet their cashflow needs? Gus Jacoby: That’s my best guess. And again, that can be either expedited or slowed down depending on where the milk price goes. Ted Jacoby III: Corn prices have really come down this year. Do you think the lower feed prices have lowered where that break even point is, or how low we need to go in milk price in order to really send those signals in a strong way? Gus Jacoby: Certainly, feed prices being lower are gonna be helpful to the farm economic model. This becomes a milk price discussion. If the cheese price continues to have that downward pressure and gets low enough, those feed prices won’t be low enough. It’s always related to their inputs. And certainly, cheap feed helps their cause to extend growth in the milk production model. Ted Jacoby III: Right now, on December 5th, the Class III prices for the first quarter are right around, let’s call it $15.50, but if you use today’s cheese price on the spot market at the CME in today’s whey price, you’re probably looking at something closer to $14, 14 and a quarter. [00:03:00] Is that low enough or do we need to go lower? Gus Jacoby: It’s low enough. But not low to expedite anything. Maybe that takes us into the late summer, and remember, it depends on where we’re talking here in the country. Milk production costs are different depending on where you exist in the country. And also payouts are a lot different in a lot of places, ...
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      23 min
    • When Will Dairy Prices Turn Around: GLP-1 and Oversupply

      When Will Dairy Prices Turn Around: GLP-1 and Oversupply
      Nov 18 2025
      Milk production is up 4.2% year over year, components are climbing and prices are falling. As holiday orders wrap up and we head into the long winter, The Milk Check team digs into whether dairy markets have already found a floor, or if there’s still another leg down to go. With milk products everywhere (except for whey), the Jacoby team shares where the market is and where we’re going. They churn through: Butter at $1.50 and what heavy cream and higher components mean after the holidaysWhy cheese feels like a calm before the storm, and how far Class III could grind lowerNonfat and skim: long milk, growing inventories and buyers shopping the cheapest originWhy whey proteins are the outlier, with tight supply, strong demand and GLP-1 tailwindsGlobal milk growth, clustered demand (Ramadan, Chinese New Year, Super Bowl) and who blinks first between the U.S. and Europe In this episode of The Milk Check, host Ted Jacoby III is joined by Joe Maixner, Jacob Menge, Diego Carvallo, Josh White and Mike Brown for a rapid-fire market session on butter, cheese, nonfat and proteins. Listen now for The Milk Check’s latest market read on butter, cheese, nonfat and whey. Got questions? We’d love to hear them. Submit below, and we might answer it on the show. Ask The Milk Check Ted Jacoby III: Welcome back, everybody, to The Milk Check podcast. Today we’re gonna have a market discussion. It is November 10th. We are in the last couple of weeks of the quote-unquote busy season, starting to get a feel for what we think is gonna happen to dairy markets as holiday orders are filled, and we transition into the long-term period of the year. In the last few weeks, we’ve actually seen prices drop, but it feels like butter’s kind of dropped down to about a $1.50/lb and seems to find at least a brief floor. We’ll talk to Joe and find out if Joe thinks we’re gonna stick around here for a while. The cheese market was up in the $1.80s/lb. It’s dropped to a little below $1.70, starting to hit a little bit of resistance. Jake will share with us a little bit about what we think is happening with cheese going forward. Nonfat dropped a little bit down to [00:01:00], about what Diego, about a $1.10/lb and had a little bounce off its floor. Meanwhile, the whey complex just continues to go up. We’ll check in with Josh and find out what’s going on there. Well, let’s go ahead and start with milk production. We just got released today, the September milk production, and it says it’s up 4.2%, which is a very, very big number. It’s November; milk is longer than it usually is this time of year. Usually, it’s quite tight, and it’s not quite tight, but I wouldn’t call it long. However, all the signs are there that once we get past the fall holiday order season, milk could get quite long. If September milk is up 4.2%, I think it’s safe to say that if that continues, we will be quite long milk as we transition from the typical seasonal tightness of the fall into the winter and the flush of the spring. 4.2% is a big number, and that’s not even taking into account the fact that the solids in the milk are up as well. That’s not the kind of tone that a dairy farmer wants us to set as we’re talking about what supply and demand looks like, but there’s a lot of milk out there, [00:02:00] Joe, does that mean there’s a lot of butter out there, too? Joe Maixner: Well, there’s still a lot of butter out there; sounds like there’s going to be a lot more butter coming soon. If milk’s up 4%, cream was heavy all of last winter and into last Spring, extremely heavy. If we have higher components, more milk, and we’ve got a full amount of milk coming outta California as well after coming off of bird flu last year, there’s just gonna be that much more cream in the system and more getting pushed back into the churns. So, it’s a very good possibility that we’re gonna go even lower than where we currently are. Volume seems to be trading well. The cream demand has been fairly steady, going into cultured products and the shorter shelf-life products. Cream’s still long, but it’s not swimming yet. Ted Jacoby III: Will we hold this $1.50 area through Thanksgiving, you think? Joe Maixner: Yeah, it seems like we’ve hit a spot where buyers are willing to step in. So, there’s a good chance that we could hang around this $1.50 area for the next couple of weeks. Once the last little spurt of holiday demand is over, we’re gonna take another leg lower. Ted Jacoby III: Okay. Jake, what about [00:03:00] cheese? Jacob Menge: I think we had a little reprieve from some cheese bearishness with the holiday demand. It’s tough, though, especially with this wall of milk that’s headed our way. Does it seem like the bottom’s ready to drop out? Probably not yet. But it still seems like it’s a possibility. It almost seems like the call before the storm. Ted Jacoby III: What you’re saying is: we’ve already dropped ...
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      26 min
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