Épisodes

  • Tim the Dairy Farmer Wants Answers

    Tim the Dairy Farmer Wants Answers
    Oct 27 2026
    Tim the Dairy Farmer is an ag comedian, but he’s not laughing about milk prices. After nearly 35 years in the dairy business, he’s seen the highs, the lows and everything in between. Now, with shrinking milk checks, rising input costs and uncertainty about the future, he’s got questions. Is the American dairy farmer getting squeezed out, or gearing up for a golden era? In this episode, we cover: Why milk checks are feeling smaller, and when prices might improveHow Class III and Class IV pricing creates different realities for dairy farmersWhy protein demand and international exports are reshaping the dairy industryWhether the U.S. can maintain its competitive advantage Plus, Tim shares how he and his brother went from milking 500 cows to finding success in a smaller, niche dairy operation. For dairy farmers wondering whether the industry’s best days are behind it, this conversation offers a little perspective and some hope about a once in a generation change for dairy. Listen to The Milk Check episode 108: Tim the Dairy Farmer Wants Answers. Got questions? We’d love to hear them. Submit below, and we might answer it on the show. Ask The Milk Check Episode 108 Transcription: Intro commercial: [00:00:00] For one part of the supply chain to be successful, everyone has to be. My superpower is practical application of data and analysis. I believe firmly that Jacoby’s success is because we help our suppliers and our buyers be successful. I’m Mike Brown, and I love working for T.C. Jacoby & Co. because I get to help people make their businesses more successful. Ted Jacoby III: Coming up on The Milk Check. Josh White: Have any of you ever tried stand-up comedy? No. Not on purpose. Ted Jacoby III: Welcome to the Milk Check from T.C. Jacoby & Co., your complete guide to dairy markets, from the milking parlor to the supermarket shelf. I’m Ted Jacoby. Let’s dive in. Ted Jacoby III: This week, we have Tim the Dairy Farmer with us. Tim, it’s great to have you with us. Thanks for joining us today. Tim Moffett: Thanks, Ted. It’s good to be back. I don’t know if you guys lost a bet and this was part of your deal to fulfill the contract, but yeah, everybody, I’m a comedian, I’m a dairy farmer just like many of you that are probably listening to this. So, let’s see what happens. Ted Jacoby III: Tim, I don’t think you’re gonna feel too far out of your element, because anybody who’s been trying to predict dairy markets lately has probably felt like a comedian as well. As you’re thinking about the milk check that you’ve been getting on a monthly basis, what’s the question on the tip of your mind that maybe we can help answer in terms of what’s driving that milk check? Tim Moffett: As far as my milk check goes, I’m just happy the last one had a comma. I think everybody wants to know when the hell is it gonna get better. When milk prices are bad farmers are like, “Is somebody in this chain making all the money? Where’s it going?” Mike Brown: Fats lowered, which has hurt everybody as far as actual milk check compared to the 3.5 price, ’cause fats were so much less. Feed costs are up, energy’s obscene. So, I’m hearing a lot of grumpy farmers right now, particularly if they’re harvesting, ’cause of their cost of harvest. A lot of them are struggling with diesel. That’s what I hear. The cash flow’s tough right now. They’re a little nervous about the beef market. How much strength that’s gonna have moving forward. So, they’re not feeling particularly loved. On the product side the markets, we’ve had a spike again. We’ve seen some issues with cheese that other people here are experts on can talk about. But how much of that is actually accruing to revenue as far as margin for plants? It’s mixed. If you’re in the milk protein business, I don’t care if it’s milk proteins or whey proteins, you’re probably making some money because those markets are way higher than other commodity markets. If you are in the commodity market making cheddar cheese or butter, things aren’t so great. You’re probably struggling a bit. So it’s kinda mixed across the field and somewhat regionally. Areas with high cheese production, because Class III’s been so low, are hurting more than people that are high Class I, II, and IV, for example, the Northeast. So it’s kinda regional. Ted Jacoby III: If you’re in a high Class III cheese-producing region like Wisconsin that milk check feels a little bit small. But if you’re in a Class IV-dominant order like California, or a Class I-dominant order like Florida, that pricing probably still feels pretty good right now. I’ll go ahead and jump in and ask the next question since we’re talking about Class IV prices and how, those farmers that are getting something along the lines of a Class IV price are doing a little bit better. Diego, this non-fat price has been great. Is it gonna hold up? Diego Carvallo: Maybe I ...
    Afficher plus Afficher moins
    31 min
  • Sacudida en el Mercado Lácteo: ¿Qué Está Pasando en México y EE. UU.?

    Sacudida en el Mercado Lácteo: ¿Qué Está Pasando en México y EE. UU.?
    Oct 16 2026
    ¿Qué está provocando tanta volatilidad en el mercado lácteo de México y Estados Unidos? En este episodio en español de The Milk Check, los expertos de T.C. Jacoby & Co., Diego Carvallo, Yara Morales y Miguel Aragon, analizan los últimos movimientos del mercado lácteo, desde la disponibilidad de leche y las fluctuaciones de precios hasta los desafíos logísticos que están afectando a compradores y productores. Temas destacados de este episodio: Oferta de leche: ¿Cómo está evolucionando la producción en Estados Unidos y qué impacto podría tener una reducción de las compras de Liconsa en México?Mercado del queso: Después de una fuerte caída, los precios comienzan a recuperarse. Analizamos la creciente demanda de mozzarella, queso para reproceso y quesos destinados a Sudamérica.Leche descremada en polvo: Precios elevados, menor demanda y fuertes movimientos en los futuros. ¿Qué podemos esperar para los próximos meses?Logística y tipo de cambio: El aumento de los costos de transporte, la escasez de unidades y las fluctuaciones cambiarias están complicando las importaciones de productos lácteos.Mantequilla y proteínas lácteas: Exploramos la recuperación de la demanda de mantequilla, la corrección de precios del WPC80 y las oportunidades en el mercado de sueros y proteínas.¿Hacia dónde se dirige el mercado lácteo? Acompáñanos para conocer las tendencias, los desafíos y las oportunidades que están transformando la industria en México, Estados Unidos y América Latina. ¡Suscríbete a The Milk Check! Mantente informado sobre los mercados lácteos internacionales con análisis y perspectivas de los expertos de T.C. Jacoby & Co. Visítanos: https://www.jacoby.com ¿Tienes preguntas? Nos encantaría escucharlas. Envíalas aquí abajo y podríamos responderlas en el programa. Pregúntale a The Milk Check Transcript: Diego Carvallo: [00:00:00] Buenas tardes a todos. Les saluda Diego Carvallo junto con Miguel Aragón y Yara Morales del equipo de T.C. Jacoby & Co. y les damos la bienvenida al pódcast de mediados de octubre del 2026. Hoy es día 13 de octubre con un mercado supermovido para todos los productos y inclusive para las monedas. Y pues vamos a ver esta conversación, que será muy interesante, a qué conclusiones llegamos. Miguel Aragón: Hola, Diego. Hola, Yara. Aquí estamos otra vez con algo de información de los mercados. Yara Morales: Sí. Hola, Diego. Hola, Miguel. Siempre un placer estar aquí con ustedes y compartiendo la información que podamos tener aquí para nuestros clientes y toda la audiencia que nos acompaña. Diego Carvallo: Amén. Bueno, para comenzar, creo que interesante que comencemos hablando como siempre de la parte de leche fluida de Estados Unidos, que, hay un mercado bastante interesante, bastante cambiante, una vez que pasamos la temporada de baja producción. Em, la información que recibimos de nuestro equipo de, fluida es que a medida que van mejorando las temperaturas en la zona del Midwest, en la zona de California, están comenzando a haber una estabilización y una pequeña mejora en los volúmenes y en los componentes de la leche. Sin embargo, todavía es muy temprano como para ver algo significativo o algo que llene las plantas, eh, de queso o de secado. Em, comenzamos a ver un poquito más de leche en la zona de Wisconsin y esperamos que durante los próximos meses, eh, ya estamos teniendo temperaturas de cincuenta, cincuenta y cinco grados, eh, durante el día y un poco más bajo en la zona de, de Chicago y del Midwest, lo cual equivale a temperaturas de menos de quince grados centígrados, em, va a comenzar a volver la leche. Em, entiendo en México la situación todavía sigue bastante ajustada. ¿Han, han escuchado algo en cuanto a la leche para México? Yara Morales: Sí, definitivamente es la temporada, la temporada que escasea bastante la leche es temporada de lluvias también. La verdad es que he escuchado que ha habido muy poca, muy poca leche fluida. Eh, aquí la situación es que el rumor que se está comentando es que Liconsa probablemente, eh, por cuestiones económicas, probablemente cancele algunos contratos o a lo mejor no los cancela todos, pero sí reducirá la compra de la leche fluida. Entonces habrá más, un poquito más de leche fluida en el mercado. Es producto de calidad que, que aunque sea de calidad, probablemente estará fluctuando entre, entre unos siete, ocho pesos por litro. Entonces eso, eso va a marcar un poquito la diferencia. Mhm. Diego Carvallo: Eso es muy interesante y lo vamos a hablar ahorita porque creemos que puede tener repercusión en, en varios de los productos Yara Morales: Sí, definitivamente ¿ Diego Carvallo: Les parece bien si comenzamos con quesos? Eeem, creo que es uno de los mercados más competitivos y más interesantes en este momento. ¿Cómo lo estás viendo, Miguel? ¿Qué ves, qué ves en la- Miguel Aragón: Definitivamente. Definitivamente hemos visto cómo el queso ...
    Afficher plus Afficher moins
    20 min
  • We Have a Cheese Problem

    We Have a Cheese Problem
    Sep 23 2026
    With more cheese competing for buyers around the world, could the global market be headed for a price war? U.S. cheese plants are running full, whey protein demand is supporting production and exports have been strong. But at home, cheese demand remains soft. That puts more pressure on exports to keep product moving. In episode 106 of The Milk Check, host Ted Jacoby III sits down with the T.C. Jacoby & Co. cheese team to discuss what happens when growing U.S. production meets intensifying competition overseas. In this episode, we cover: Why international buyers are asking for more cheese varieties, and where that could create opportunities for U.S. suppliersHow freight costs and the strength of the U.S. dollar could make American cheese less competitive overseasWhat happens when stronger milk production in New Zealand and continued competition from Europe could puts pressure on global cheese prices Listen to The Milk Check episode 106, “We Have a Cheese Problem,” for the T.C. Jacoby & Co. team’s take on what could be ahead for the global cheese market. Got questions? We’d love to hear them. Submit below, and we might answer it on the show. Ask The Milk Check Transcript: [Intro commercial text not included] Ted Jacoby III: Coming up on The Milk Check. Are you saying if we produce 2% more cheese and it all has to go into the export market, it’s gonna be a price war? Brianne Breed: Yes. Ted Jacoby III: Welcome to the Milk Check from T.C. Jacoby & Co., your complete guide to dairy markets, from the milking parlor to the supermarket shelf. I’m Ted Jacoby. Let’s dive in. Ted Jacoby III: Hello, everybody, and welcome to The Milk Check. Today is September 21st. Today we’re gonna talk cheese. I’ve got my cheese team here today. We’ve got Brianne Breed, Jeff Daanen, Miguel Aragón, Jennifer Kuo, and Michael Brown joining us. We even have Diego Carvallo to help us talk a little bit about international. But we’ve talked a lot about cheese, we’ve talked a lot about how much cheese we’re producing and how whey protein seems to be driving cheese production right now. But I thought we’d get some really great insights from our cheese team in terms of what they’re seeing out there. Bree, I’ll start with you. If you had to explain the U.S. cheese market right now without even looking at CME prices, how would you describe it? Brianne Breed: There’s a lot of cheese out there right now, especially a lot of cheddar. The large plants that have expanded over the last few years are running very full, and a lot of that is because of what you mentioned: with whey being in high demand. We’re finding a lot of cheese out in the market. Exports have been very strong. I think that there’s been a really big push over the last few years to get more and more cheese exported from the United States, and we’ve been very successful. Mozzarella seems to be growing every year. But at the same time, domestic demand has definitely slowed down. Restaurants lost maybe 1% to 2% foot traffic this year. Retail demand is also down to flat. We’re in this weird spot right now where we have a lot of cheese being made and we’re exporting a lot, but domestically, we’re not consuming as much as we have in the past. Ted Jacoby III: What’s going on in the domestic market? Are we seeing any growth anywhere? Brianne Breed: We are seeing growth in a few of the pizza chains that have been making some good pushes using mozzarella and some good deals just because, you go to out to a restaurant right now and it’s very expensive to feed a family of four, where you can just order a couple of pizzas and have your fixed cost. You know what you’re paying. And so pizza’s been doing better than it was the last couple of years, which I guess you could say is great because it was struggling for a couple of years there. But as far as anything positive domestically, it’s been a struggle, I think, on the cheese side. The positives are really more on the powder side and on the UF side. The protein demand for Americans right now is just crazy. I’ve never seen it like this, and we’re seeing cheese being made just so we can get the whey stream, and we’re seeing some cheese manufacturers lose some of their farmers because those farmers are actually taking their milk to other plants that maybe are making UF milk to go into protein beverages. Ted Jacoby III: Mike, I’m gonna ask you this question. One thing that seems really odd to me is that we’ve been talking about protein a lot. The whole nation seems to wanna be talking about protein, but it doesn’t seem to me that domestic cheese demand is participating in the big increase in demand for protein, yet for years we’ve always talked about cheese as a protein, comparing it to meat, in terms of where it fits on the pyramid. Mike Brown As far as cheese and protein, people just don’t affiliate it as a protein source like they do, for example, all the nutrition ...
    Afficher plus Afficher moins
    24 min
  • Powder pops. WPC 80 slips. Dairy proteins defy gravity.

    Powder pops. WPC 80 slips. Dairy proteins defy gravity.
    Aug 31 2026
    Nonfat rallied nearly 30 cents in about 15 days. Can that rally can hold? WPC80 is showing its first real signs of softness in a while. Is it a seasonal slowdown or a sign? And milk proteins are still finding support. Will demand stay strong as new products come online, or will the economy finally put a lid on protein? In episode 105 of The Milk Check, host Ted Jacoby III and the T.C. Jacoby & Co. team focus on two of the busiest corners of the dairy market right now: nonfat and protein. In this episode, we cover: Why low inventories could keep powder markets volatileHow exports, Mexico and production interruptions contributed to the moveHow the price gap between whey and milk proteins is encouraging reformulationWhat consumer spending, GLP-1 use and alternative proteins, and the economy could mean for dairy protein demand But this is still a market with plenty of unanswered questions. Listen as the team at T.C. Jacoby & Co. shares their view and outlook on what’s coming and why. Listen to The Milk Check episode 105: Powder pops. WPC 80 slips. Dairy proteins defy gravity. Also available on: Amazon Music, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and YouTube. Got questions? We’d love to hear them. Submit below, and we might answer it on the show. Ask The Milk Check Transcript: Ted Jacoby III: [00:00:00] Coming up on the Milk Check. Diego Carvallo: We’ve had a 28 or 30 cent nonfat rally in a matter of about 15 days that caught a lot of people by surprise. Ted Jacoby III: Welcome to the Milk Check from T.C. Jacoby & Co., your complete guide to dairy markets, from the milking parlor to the supermarket shelf. I’m Ted Jacoby. Let’s dive in. Ted Jacoby III: We are going to have a very focused market discussion. We’re recording this on August 24th, and the reality is, so far in the milk side of the business, things have been relatively underwhelming. We’re expecting milk to tighten up. It has, but only in a very normal way, so nothing huge to talk about. Cheese has been a non-event. The cheese market is very quiet right now. We’re expecting it to stay quiet. But there’s been a lot going on in nonfat and a lot going on in protein. So we’re gonna focus on nonfat and protein today. Diego, let’s go ahead and get started on nonfat. What’s been going on in the nonfat market, and what do you think is gonna happen next? Diego Carvallo: It’s been a very interesting market, Ted. We’ve had a 28 or 30 cent nonfat rally in a matter of about 15 days that caught a lot of people by surprise. We went from about $1.45 per pound to $1.75. And now we’re slightly below that. We’re close to the 1.70, but the CME spot market has remained at a premium. I think what led to this rally were a couple of things. One is when we got to 1.45, we became very competitive for skim milk powder. And we know for a fact that a few of the large producers in the U.S. made very interesting sales for exports after having exported very little for this year so far. That helped manufacturers and the whole market, find some sort of psychological support to prices. And then, at the same time, we noticed how several of the manufacturers were in a relatively good spot when it comes to sales for August and September. They were not having burdensom inventories, and they were pretty proud with their offers. So I think the whole market realized that Mexico still had a few shorts that they needed to cover. We made some international exports after not exporting for a while, so I think the whole market found some support and it rallied quite a bit. I was also surprised to see that rally. I think we got to the $1.75 and we started seeing pushback from Mexico. We started not being competitive in international markets again. And I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a correction in the coming days. At the same time, there are some rumors and also facts of production interruptions by some manufacturers. That also got people nervous, and I think that also contributed to the market rally. Ted Jacoby III: What do you mean by production interruptions? Diego Carvallo: There’s news that have gone around about some plants having recalls and some also production issues that have delayed [00:03:00] their releases. That added to a market that was nervous already. Ted Jacoby III: So, basically, a supply chain that has been relatively low on inventory to begin with, any kind of potential supply disruption such as another FDA recall or something that at least holds that product for a little while, the market’s just pretty sensitive to that, and that’s causing this extra volatility. Diego Carvallo: Exactly. Yep. Ted Jacoby III: Jake, what has this volatility been doing to the hedgability of our nonfat market? Jacob Menge: We’ve seen pretty poor CME NDPSR correlation compared to history. I don’t know if poor correlation is the word, but if you’re in short-term hedges you have a coin flip here of how well that hedge is gonna work for you. But in general the...
    Afficher plus Afficher moins
    32 min
  • Can the U.S. Keep Its Dairy Export Advantage?

    Can the U.S. Keep Its Dairy Export Advantage?
    Aug 5 2026
    We’re excited to have Will Loux, senior vice president of global economic affairs for the U.S. Dairy Export Council, join us to share his presentation of the future of U.S. dairy exports. For years, the U.S. dairy export portfolio has leaned heavily on nonfat dry milk, skim milk powder, lactose and lower-protein whey products. But our exports are changing. In the latest episode of The Milk Check, host Ted Jacoby sits down with Will Loux to break down the changing U.S. export picture. In this episode, we cover: Why U.S. dairy exports are moving toward cheese, fats and higher-value proteinsHow domestic protein demand is pulling skim solids away from dryersWhy more cheese may be produced partly to create additional whey proteinHow exports are absorbing a larger share of new U.S. cheese productionWhere Latin America offers room for additional cheese growthWhat it will take for U.S. butter exports to become more consistent and profitable The U.S. has the milk. It has new processing capacity. And it is capturing a growing share of international cheese demand. But growth creates new challenges. Are you ready to meet them? Listen to The Milk Check episode 104: Can the U.S. Keep Its Dairy Export Advantage? Also available on: Amazon Music, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and YouTube. Got questions? We’d love to hear them. Submit below, and we might answer it on the show. Ask The Milk Check Transcript: Ted Jacoby III: [00:00:00] Coming up on the Milk Check. Will Loux: What I’ve heard from folks in Europe and elsewhere is how do they manage the U.S. tsunami of exports that’s coming? And I think that, at the Export Council, it makes me excited, but it does mean we need to keep our strategies current. Ted Jacoby III: Welcome to the Milk Check from T.C. Jacoby & Co., your complete guide to dairy markets, from the milking parlor to the supermarket shelf. I’m Ted Jacoby. Let’s dive in. Ted Jacoby III: Today, we are very excited to have Will Loux, Senior Vice President of Global Economic Affairs for the U.S. Dairy Export Council joining us. A few weeks ago I saw a presentation that Will gave that talked about where the U.S. dairy industry is going, especially from an international perspective. It was an absolutely fantastic presentation, and I couldn’t help but think that just this presentation alone would be an absolutely fantastic topic for our podcast. I have a bunch of our traders joining us, many of our usual suspects, including: Ted Jacoby III: Diego Carvallo, Joe Maixner, Miguel Aragon, Mike Brown, all from our trading team. Guys, thanks for joining us. Will, thank you so much for joining us. It’s great to see you again. Will Loux: Good to see you, Ted. Thanks for having me on. Ted Jacoby III: Excited to have all of our listeners listen to this. Will, the floor is yours. Will Loux: Perfect. Well, thank you for having me, Ted, and glad to have so many people on here and another audience for this presentation. I’ve got some slides. For those of you like me who will listen to this podcast usually while driving, feel free to go check it out on YouTube. I am also gonna do my best to reference what is in those slides as best I can remember to do so. But what is the future of U.S. dairy exports? What we’ve seen, really over the last twenty-five years, has been this tremendous, consistent growth, in aggregate U.S. dairy exports. We just got May data, and what we saw was on an annualized basis over the last twelve months, the U.S. actually set a new record again. So our exports have never been higher than they are today. But that said, our exports look fundamentally different than what they did 20 years ago. Before, when we were getting started with exports, 75, 80% of our exports were really driven by nonfat dry milk, and low-protein whey products, and lactose. That’s been the vast majority of our portfolio for much of this time, and we’ve had a few different eras where we’ve seen U.S. cheese exports picked up, especially around 2014 when the world was short of milk and we saw U.S. cheese and butter go overseas. But then we saw that stagnate for a few years. Now, what we’ve seen since COVID has been this tremendous growth of these more value-add products, these specialty products. I believe the U.S. is moving towards a portfolio in the export market that looks a lot like cheese, fats, and proteins. And that’s gonna be the core of our exports, I think, going forward because the U.S. dairy industry is really kind of, I consider it an evolution rather than, like, a true revolution. But this is one of those facets that I think is really interesting to see is the U.S. has consistently been growing its exports, unlike a [00:03:00] lot of other supply origins. But this is one that I think as we go forward I’m really excited about. But it’s gonna change how we need to think about exports over the next few years. Ted Jacoby III: Will, it sounds like what you’re saying is not only are we seeing...
    Afficher plus Afficher moins
    43 min
  • The Perfect Storm for Milk Solids

    The Perfect Storm for Milk Solids
    Jul 30 2026
    Milk already feels tight across much of the U.S. That could be the setup for a perfect storm. Summer heat, warm nights, wildfire smoke and plant disruptions have pressured milk production and moved milk into unexpected places. Now, Class I bottlers are preparing for schools to reopen just as cheese plants, protein beverage manufacturers and other processors compete for the same milk solids. In this episode of The Milk Check, guest host Josh White and the Jacoby team break down what could make August, September and October especially interesting for dairy markets. We cover: How heat, smoke and limited nighttime cooling affected milk productionWhy school bottling demand could tighten the market furtherHow the cybersecurity disruption temporarily increased condensed skim availabilityHow conflict, Red Sea risk and higher freight costs are complicating dairy exports The dairy market is not moving in a straight line. But competition for milk solids is building, and the next few months could determine which product sectors get the milk they need. Listen to The Milk Check episode 103: The Perfect Storm for Milk Solids. Also available on: Amazon Music, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and YouTube. Got questions? We’d love to hear them. Submit below, and we might answer it on the show. Ask The Milk Check Transcript: [Opening commercial] Josh White: [00:00:00] Coming up on the Milk Check. Jennifer S. Kuo: The Red Sea seems to be an issue now as well. Tyler Jokerst: Yeah. Josh, if the Houthis are getting involved, when you’re looking at Yemen that’s a direct effect on the Red Sea, which is the other half of that peninsula . And then it starts to limit the only access point that you can have into the Red Sea being through the Suez Canal. Josh White: ​In absence of our fearless leader, Ted we invite our audience to join us for one of our bi-weekly commercial meetings, where our group gets together and breaks down the market based on our individual disciplines. Today’s group is a fairly large one but we have members representing our fluid team, our ultrafiltered and cream team, cheese, butterfat, milk powder, and whey, which makes up our trading group. We’re in the dog days of summer right now, schools are out, families are traveling. There’s people out of the office not making decisions. That’s happening both in the U.S. and in Europe. Let’s touch on current market, climate, what we’re experiencing, and then what we’re paying attention to or looking out for in 30 days time. Let’s start with where we’re at on the milk side of things. Greg, both you and Jared, have experienced a little turbulence over the past week or so with some milk movements. We’re just coming out of a big heat stretch. We’re on the cusp of the South starting to refill its bottling pipelines. What are you feeling and seeing right now, Greg? Greg Scheer: We’ve had some plant closures that have pushed milk around the Mideast, the Northeast, and, around the country. We have had a week or two of that. The first heat wave, back several weeks ago, hit the cows harder than expected, and I’m wondering if maybe that’s the age of the herd is a little older that maybe it hit them a little more. Usually, you have a heat wave, the cows recover some. Normal summer, they get another heat wave, and then, it hits them a little harder the second time or third time. Seems like the first heat wave hit the cows a little harder. I think production’s down just a little bit more than we expected or earlier than maybe a normal summer. Other than plant problems that push milk around, it feels tight. We get to next month, schools start up again or are about to, and bottlers start putting milk into the bottle for schools, then it’s gonna get really tight and could be tight through September, October when maybe production comes back a little bit and the pipeline gets filled, and then it levels off demand a little bit. It feels tight other than plant closures. It’s gonna get really tight in a month. And, we’ll see where it goes. But production does seems like it was hit harder. I’m just wondering if maybe the age of the herd may have a little bit to do with it. Josh White: It was also pretty warm nights for the Midwest. It’s pretty well documented that above 70s: tough on cows; below 70s: allows them to recover nicely. I’m in Gurnee, Illinois, which is Grand Rapids [00:03:00] latitude on the Michigan side. For us to get nights above 70 is rare. And we just went through a pretty good stretch where we had a lot of them. The entire Mideast and the Midwest, we went through a solid four or five days of pretty bad smoke. At least our area was bad enough that just walking outside to get your mail, you could taste it. So I can’t imagine that helped anything. Greg Scheer: How much it hurt is hard to quantify maybe, but definitely didn’t help things. Josh White: Are we still really talking about two different countries, more or less? ...
    Afficher plus Afficher moins
    37 min
  • Who Wins the Next Decade of Milk Production?

    Who Wins the Next Decade of Milk Production?
    Jul 21 2026
    The next decade of global dairy growth may look very different from the last one. For years, much of the world’s additional milk came from pasture-based systems. New Zealand added acres. Production expanded across parts of South America, Australia and Europe. But those regions are not growing the way they once did. Today, the next unit of milk is increasingly coming from grain-fed systems. That shift could put the U.S. in the driver’s seat for global dairy markets over the next 5 to 10 years. In this episode of The Milk Check, host Ted Jacoby III and the Jacoby team are joined by Scott Briggs of Bridgecape Commodities. We dive into: Why marginal milk growth is shifting from grass-fed to grain-fed systemsWhat environmental policy and structural inefficiencies mean for European milk productionWhy China is shifting from building milk supply to creating higher-value dairy productsWhy the U.S. will need to become a more consistent exporter of butterfat Plus, beef income has helped support dairy farm margins and encouraged producers to breed more cows to beef. What happens if beef prices fall? The cows are ready. The plants are being built. What’s next for U.S. dairy? Listen to The Milk Check episode 102: Who Wins the Next Decade of Milk Production? Also available on Amazon Music, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and YouTube. Got questions? We’d love to hear them. Submit below, and we might answer it on the show. Ask The Milk Check Intro commercial [Text not included.] Ted Jacoby III: Coming up on the Milk Check. Ted Jacoby III: You’ve got the U.S. dairy industry now in a position where even the worst-case scenario continues to be a threat for Europe or the rest of the world from a milk supply standpoint. Ted Jacoby III: Welcome to the Milk Check from T.C. Jacoby & Co., your complete guide to dairy markets, from the milking parlor to the supermarket shelf. I’m Ted Jacoby. Let’s dive in. This week, we are excited to have Scott Briggs from Bridgecape Commodities joining us. Scott lives in Australia and really understands what’s going on with dairy markets on that side of the pond. Scott, thank you so much for joining us. We’re excited to have you. Why don’t we start by having you tell everybody a little bit about yourself? Scott Briggs: Thanks very much for the intro, Ted. I’m Scott Briggs, Bridgecape Commodities, based down in Melbourne, Australia and work with a number of Asian and Oceanic consumers to try and understand global dairy markets and try and help them risk manage. Thanks very much for the opportunity to be a part of the podcast. Ted Jacoby III: Scott, thanks for joining us. We’re really excited to have you. We’re gonna have a little bit of a debate: How do U.S. dairy production costs compare to those in New Zealand, Europe, and China today? Do we think the U.S. is building a lasting competitive advantage? And what does that mean for the global dairy market over the next five years? Scott, I’ll start with you. You’re based down under. Do you think the U.S. Is developing a competitive advantage, or do you think New Zealand will continue to be in the driver’s seat? Scott Briggs: It’s a very big topic Ted, but I think the short answer is that yeah, the U.S. is really in a great position to drive global dairy markets over the next 5 to 10 years. One of the major things that’s changed probably since about 2015, we’ve been in a transition period where the marginal milk growth is not coming from a grass-fed system anymore, it’s coming from a grain-fed system. Between 2000 when a lot of global dairy markets started to deregulate and we had falling trade controls and those sorts of things, quotas in the EU eventually coming off, between 2000 and 2015, the marginal milk growth was really coming from a grass-fed system, be it New Zealand growing the number of acres that it planted or the number of acres that it farmed. Places like Uruguay or southern Brazil or Argentina growing quite strongly and other parts of Europe and Australia as well. So that was the driver of the growth, and that’s why we saw that volatility in global dairy markets driving back towards a grass-fed cost of production. But since then, those places have stopped growing and really the next unit of growth or the next liter of growth comes from grains and ultimately that does mean that the U.S. is in a great position to respond to the milk production needs of the world. At the end of the day, you’ve got the greatest exportable surplus of grains and you’ve got a fantastic platform to grow from. That’s the 10,000-foot view of why the U.S. is in the box seat. Ted Jacoby III: You mentioned that even New Zealand is starting to go towards a grain-based system. Could you tell me a little bit more about that? Scott Briggs: I would say that’s pretty incipient, Ted, but there’s certainly steps that are being taken in New Zealand that seem to mirror what Australia’s been doing for probably the last ...
    Afficher plus Afficher moins
    43 min
  • Screwworm, Bird Flu and Foot-and-Mouth Disease: Is U.S. Dairy Ready?

    Screwworm, Bird Flu and Foot-and-Mouth Disease: Is U.S. Dairy Ready?
    Jul 9 2026
    Disease pressure is back in the dairy market conversation. New World screwworm has moved into the U.S. Avian flu is still lingering in dairy herds. Foot-and-mouth disease is also back in the conversation after a recent Dutton Ranch storyline raised questions about what an outbreak would mean for U.S. cattle and dairy. So, we got together the experts and asked: is U.S. dairy ready? Listen to the episode. Listen here. Also available on: Amazon MusicApple PodcastsSpotifyYouTube In this episode: In The Milk Check episode 101, host Ted Jacoby III is joined by Jamie Jonker, chief science officer and vice president of sustainability and scientific affairs for the National Milk Producers Federation, and Sarina Sharp, market analyst for the Daily Dairy Report and Risk Manager at Ag Business Solutions. We break down what these disease risks mean for dairy cattle, milk production, farm-level disruption and market economics. We cover: How screwworm could disrupt individual dairy farmsWhy the closed border with Mexico is changing feeder cattle flows, beef prices and dairy farm economicsWhere avian flu stands today, and why current cases are not affecting dairy like they did in 2024Why foot-and-mouth disease remains a low-risk, high-consequence threat for U.S. livestock Get up to speed on what animal health risks mean for milk production, dairy markets and farm-level decision-making Listen to The Milk Check episode 101: Screwworm, Bird Flu and Foot-and-Mouth Disease: Is U.S. Dairy Ready? Got questions: We’d love to hear them. Submit below, and we might answer it on the show. Ask The Milk Check TMC-Intro-final Ted Jacoby III: Coming up on the Milk Check. Sarina Sharp: The border is shut, and it doesn’t look like it will open anytime soon, so we just have this vacuum of Mexican beef cattle. Ted Jacoby III: Welcome to the Milk Check from T.C. Jacoby & Co., your complete guide to dairy markets, from the milking parlor to the supermarket shelf. I’m Ted Jacoby. Let’s dive in. Ted Jacoby III: Today we are excited to have two special guests. First, we have Jamie Jonker, chief science officer and vice president of sustainability and scientific affairs for the National Milk Producers Association, And second, we have Serena Sharp, the excellent market analyst who does our weekly market report. Serena, Jamie, thanks for joining us today. We’re excited to have you. Jamie Jonker: Thank you for having me here. I think we’re gonna have a number of things that are quite timely to talk about today. Sarina Sharp: Thanks for having me again. Ted Jacoby III: In addition to those two, we have some of our usual suspects. We have Mike Brown, our VP of dairy market intelligence. We have Jacob Menge, our VP of trading strategy and risk management. We have my brother Gus, president of the dairy fluid group. We have Josh White, our VP of dairy ingredients. And we have Tristan Suellentrop on our sales and marketing team, and Manuel Polzer, who is part of Jake’s risk management team. Guys, thanks for joining us today. So the topic we’re gonna be discussing today, there are three different diseases that have been gaining news in terms of how it might be affecting milk production and dairy cows. The first would be screwworm which has come across the border from Mexico, the second is avian flu is back. And of course, the third is Dutton Ranch recently had an episode that talked about foot-and-mouth disease on their cattle farm in Texas. And so of course, we’re getting questions about that. But we’ll start with the one that’s probably getting the most attention, and that is screwworm coming across the border from Mexico. It is now in Texas, and it is in New Mexico. Jamie, why don’t you just give us a brief background on what is screwworm, and how does it affect dairy cattle versus beef cattle? Jamie Jonker: Yeah. Great question, Ted. New World screwworm is a fly that, lays its eggs in mammals. It was eradicated from the U.S. in the mid-1960s, and by 2002, it was eradicated all the way down to what’s called the Darien Gap in Panama. That is a forested area about 50 miles wide, where there are no official roads going through it. And so that was really great news about the many decades process to get it down there. What’s happened is starting in ’23, it started creeping back up through Central America through the movement of people and people moving with their animals. Got into Mexico in ’24. Started really taking off in Mexico in ’25, and then just this past June 3rd, we had our first official case in Texas. Today there are 27 confirmed cases in the U.S. 25 in Texas. Out of those about 16 are cattle, most of those are calves castrated males. There is at least one adult cattle in that. So far, all of those are beef cattle. What happens is the New World screwworm fly lays its eggs in any open wound. And when we think about a wound, I want people to understand that can be as small as a tick bite, so it doesn’t ...
    Afficher plus Afficher moins
    31 min