In this week's episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down President Trump's Davos speech, noting that despite promises on housing affordability, the administration has no real plan to lower prices — and Trump explicitly said he doesn't want home prices to fall. Chris explains why that won't matter: hot markets like San Diego and Florida are already cooling, and he predicts a significant correction by 2028 that could push prices back to 2020-21 levels, leaving every mortgage made since COVID underwater. He warns that Trump will "run the economy hot" to win the midterms, with consequences to pay afterward. On rates, Chris explains why long-term yields keep rising despite Fed cuts and what happens if a new Fed chairman loses an FOMC vote. He also discusses gold's march toward $5,000, calling it "the return of gold" as central banks worldwide reverse 70 years of policy, and weighs in on the FDIC's approval of Ford and GM to establish deposit-taking banks.

Links:

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira802

Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/

Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome and intro

0:50 Trump at Davos: Greenland walkback and housing

2:55 The two sides of housing: Owners vs. buyers

4:00 401(k) withdrawals for down payments — does it help?

5:00 Why stoking demand pushes prices higher

6:17 Hot markets cool first: San Diego, Florida, Carolinas

7:58 Demographics and housing: Boomers vs. millennials

8:37 Rate cuts coming and the 2028 correction

9:35 What happens if prices fall 20%? Every post-COVID loan underwater

10:10 Signs to watch for a broader market shift in 2026

12:36 Why long-term rates rise when the Fed cuts

14:15 How lenders are feeling right now

15:14 Gold closing in on $5,000

16:28 Trump will run the economy hot for the midterms

18:05 You pay for it after the election

18:51 What if the new Fed chair loses an FOMC vote?

21:00 What should the Fed actually be doing?

22:45 The asymmetry of gold and silver investments

26:32 The return of gold: Central banks reverse 70 years of policy

27:06 Peter Schiff's crisis call — does Chris buy it?

28:36 FDIC approves Ford and GM banks — what it means

32:46 Viewer mail: Gold as a hedge for real estate

33:45 Viewer mail: Stable coins debate

35:30 Closing

In this special in-person interview, Jim Rickards breaks down why the Trump administration is far more strategic than the media portrays, explaining the "flood the zone" tactic and Scott Bessent's "Three Arrows" approach to bringing down the debt-to-GDP ratio. Jim dismantles the popular "debasement trade" narrative, revealing that foreign central banks are not dumping Treasuries and that the real risk lies in the Eurodollar market and the $1 quadrillion derivatives system underpinning global finance. He warns that stablecoins are quietly hoarding Treasury bills needed for collateral — and the risk of fraud waiting to blow up. On gold, Jim explains why $5,000 is just the beginning, making the case for $10,000 to $25,000 based on historical precedent from the 1970s when the dollar lost 94% of its value measured in gold. He also offers a bold prediction: the potential breakup of NATO as geopolitical alliances fracture under pressure.

More about Rickards:

Rickards is a New York Times bestselling author of Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis and several other best-sellers, including The New Great Depression, Aftermath, The Road to Ruin, Death of Money, The New Case for Gold, Sold Out: How Broken Supply Chains, Surging Inflation, and Political Instability Will Sink the Global Economy, and his newest book MoneyGPT: AI and the Threat to the Global Economy. An investment advisor, lawyer, inventor, and economist, Rickards has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management, and Caxton Associates. He is also the Editor of Strategic Intelligence, a widely-read financial newsletter.

Links:

http://www.jamesrickardsproject.com/

https://x.com/RealJimRickards

Timestamps:

0:00 Intro

2:33 Why the second Trump term is different from the first

5:25 The Heritage Foundation and Project 2025

6:45 Executive orders and legislative wins

8:20 Federal courts and the Supreme Court battles

9:49 The economy: Is it really chaos?

11:32 The national debt: Why $39 trillion isn't the number to watch

13:45 The debt-to-GDP ratio explained

15:30 The Keynesian multiplier and diminishing returns

17:38 How we fixed the debt ratio after WWII (1945-1980)

18:36 Scott Bessent's "Three Arrows" strategy

19:19 The debasement trade: Why it's a false narrative

21:15 Are foreign central banks dumping Treasuries? (No)

23:15 What triggers a financial panic

24:45 How the Fed actually "prints money"

26:30 The Eurodollar market: Where real money comes from

28:00 The $1 quadrillion derivatives market

30:15 Stablecoins: The hidden risk in crypto

33:24 Tether's commercial paper problem

35:37 Gold: Why it's really moving

37:45 The Russian asset freeze and its unintended consequences

42:26 Gold does well in deflation too

45:48 The first Pentagon financial war game (2009)

49:54 Gold's trajectory: $10,000 to $25,000 or higher

51:45 The 1970s: When gold went up 2,700%

55:30 Anchoring bias and why $1,000 jumps get easier

56:33 Jim Rogers on the 50% retracement rule

58:49 Silver: Precious metal meets industrial input

63:21 Bold prediction: The potential breakup of NATO

67:34 Parting thoughts: True diversification

In this wide-ranging conversation, natural resource investor Rick Rule, president and CEO of Rule Investment Media and co-founder of Battle Bank, shares his macro outlook, warning that the global economy is weaker than most believe. He explains why he sold 80% of his physical silver after its run from $20 to $75 — and redeployed half into silver mining equities where he sees better leverage if prices hold. Rick breaks down the stark math behind America's $160 trillion in combined liabilities versus $167 trillion in total private net worth, arguing that a "dishonest default" through inflation is inevitable. He shares his framework for knowing when to sell, discusses the coming AI disruption to white-collar jobs, offers his candid views on the Fed and taxation, and provides an update on Battle Bank's national rollout after a 54-month regulatory journey.

This episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia

Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome back Rick Rule

0:47 Macro outlook: Global economy weaker than people think

3:19 Precious metals are "absolutely screaming"

4:14 Silver update: The coiled spring has sprung

5:16 What's driving the gold price

6:40 US debt: $160 trillion in liabilities vs $167 trillion net worth

9:48 Honest default vs dishonest default

11:00 Why CPI understates real inflation

13:22 What would fix this? (Hint: Nothing politically viable)

15:29 Where could gold go from here

16:37 Warning: Expect 30-50% drawdowns in this bull market

18:23 Is gold and silver still contrarian?

19:16 Why Rick sold 80% of his physical silver

20:47 Redeploying into silver mining equities

21:57 Rick's investment memo framework

24:00 Silver equities: The leverage opportunity

26:44 Wealth taxes and the nature of taxation

29:52 The New York City socialist experiment

33:35 How we fixed it in the 1970s — five lessons

37:34 Innovation as the way out

38:36 "Take care of yourself — society won't be able to"

42:29 Thoughts on the Federal Reserve

44:45 What would free market interest rates look like

46:56 Signs the economy is deteriorating

49:53 AI and the coming white-collar disruption

54:09 AI: "Greatest memory, no common sense"

55:09 Battle Bank update

58:08 Closing