David Rosenberg, founder of Rosenberg Research and author of Bear in the Bull Ring, says he has never seen so many imbalances in the economy and markets in his 40-year career. He argues we’re in an AI-driven bubble, now in “extra innings.” Ten stocks make up over 40% of market cap while the median stock is down nearly 20%. The Shiller CAPE has topped 40 and the equity risk premium has turned negative. Beneath roughly 2% GDP growth, he sees an economy held up by AI capex, a falling savings rate and stock-market wealth effects, while hiring stalls and real incomes shrink. Rosenberg warns that Kevin Warsh’s Fed risks a policy mistake by hiking into a supply shock with a flat yield curve. He also flags fading fiscal stimulus, midterm gridlock and canceled data center projects as headwinds that put recession odds above 50-50 for 2027. His prescription is to de-risk without going to zero equities: shift toward Treasuries (two-year and 10-year notes), defensive sectors like utilities, healthcare and REITs, gold, and some cash, so you’re one of the “strong hands” when the cycle turns.

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Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052

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Links:

Book: https://www.amazon.com/Bear-Bullring-Independent-Thinking-Protects

Website: https://rosenbergresearch.com/

X: https://x.com/EconguyRosie

Timestamps:

0:00 Intro: Protect your capital

0:21 Welcome David Rosenberg

1:36 Most imbalances in 40 years: a narrow market & fragile economy

6:57 What’s propping up the economy: AI spending & the wealth effect

10:23 Market call: CAPE above 40 & a negative equity risk premium

13:46 Why nobody calls it a bubble until it bursts

18:29 Don’t extrapolate: lessons from oil in 2008

23:17 Fed chasing headline inflation & recession odds

26:09 Is Warsh’s Fed dangerous?

31:32 Four supply shocks & where tariff inflation went

36:09 Labor market weaker than perceived

37:51 Will the Fed be forced to cut? The rookie Fed chair pattern

41:49 Greenspan, 1987 & testing a new Fed chair

42:40 Midterms, fiscal gridlock & a growth slowdown

45:47 AI backlash & data center cancellations

50:33 2001 recession, valuations & savings rate risk

53:42 Where to be on the Treasury curve

54:48 Bonds under-owned & boomers’ 55% stock exposure

1:00:56 Recession vs. growth slowdown

1:01:59 AI credit cracks: Oracle & CoreWeave

1:04:29 Gold outlook & why Treasuries

1:09:35 Book: Bear in the Bull Ring & independent thinking

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

In this week's episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Julia and Chris start with President Trump’s $5,000 cash dividend promise, which Whalen calls “bread and circuses,” and why affordability, driven by gasoline and diesel prices tied to the war with Iran, could deliver a 50-seat House swing to Democrats. Whalen says we’re already on a double-digit inflation path, points to September’s PPI as the highest since late 2022, and argues the Fed may be forced to hike before the midterms, possibly over Chairman Warsh’s objection. Fresh from the Mortgage Bankers Association conference in Chicago, he shares why industry insiders like Stan Middleman expect home prices to soften 5–10% over the next three years, how construction costs are putting a floor under prices, and why layoffs are hitting mortgage lenders and realtors. He also covers United Wholesale Mortgage, bank earnings (JPMorgan’s miss and Bank of America’s record $1.5 billion OCC fine), and why he sees the AI trade as circular finance heading for a reset. They close with viewer questions on banks holding low-coupon COVID-era mortgages and the outlook for Annaly.

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Links:

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571X

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Timestamps:

00:00 Intro and welcome back

00:43 Trump’s $5,000 dividend promise: “bread and circuses”

02:54 Could Democrats see a 50-seat House swing?

03:16 Affordability as the top issue: gas, diesel and the Iran war

07:16 Are we on a double-digit inflation path?

08:28 Fed hike ahead? Yellen says “transitory” again

09:44 Demand destruction, fertilizer and food prices

11:31 Takeaways from the Mortgage Bankers Association conference

13:33 Stan Middleman’s outlook: smaller price reset than expected

15:24 Construction costs and replacement value as a price floor

17:13 Will the Fed hike before the midterms? Warsh, Lisa Cook and the Supreme Court

18:57 The mood in mortgage: layoffs and a tougher 2027

20:36 Is there a bull case for United Wholesale Mortgage?

21:58 Bank earnings: JPMorgan’s miss and Bank of America’s $1.5B fine

24:36 The AI reset and circular finance

26:59 Viewer question: banks holding low-rate COVID mortgages

29:55 Viewer question: the outlook for Annaly

31:34 What Whalen is watching next

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

New York Times’ bestselling author Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to explain why he believes the market’s surface strength hides serious stress underneath. He points to cracks in AI data center financing: canceled data center IPOs, collapsing CoreWeave bond prices, and a surge in convertible bond issuance from neoclouds, which he calls the “last saloon” warning sign last seen in 1999 and 2021. With consumers hit by higher rates, soaring diesel and jet fuel costs, and iconic brands like Nike, Home Depot and McDonald’s down sharply, McDonald argues the Fed is “faking” its hiking cycle and that smart money now expects three rate cuts before three hikes. He describes an internal market crash masked by passive flows into mega-cap tech, explains the year-end “convergence trade,” and makes his case for why gold could run from $4,000 to $6,500 and why silver may be one of the best trades of the next 12 months

Thank you to our partners

Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052

Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:

How To Listen When Markets Speak: https://www.amazon.com/Listen-When-Markets-Speak-Opportunities-ebook/dp/B0C4DFVFNR

Colossal Failure of Common Sense: https://www.amazon.com/Colossal-Failure-Common-Sense-Collapse/dp/B002IFLWMK

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Convertbond

Bear Traps Report: https://www.thebeartrapsreport.com/

Timestamps:

0:00 Preview: the Fed is “faking” its hiking cycle

0:19 Welcome Larry McDonald

1:20 Learning from mentors and “cage matches”

2:06 Why AI data center financing is breaking down

4:53 Convertible bonds: the “last saloon”

8:31 The ConvertBond.com story

9:09 Credit warnings: canceled IPOs, CCCs and leveraged loans

11:15 The million-dollar bet: three hikes or three cuts?

11:49 The consumer takes four or five left hooks

15:13 Why the Fed is faking its hiking cycle

16:28 Record highs, but an internal market crash

21:02 Passive investing and the convergence trade

23:19 What could trigger the convergence: AI capex and the midterms

24:43 The case for gold and silver

27:28 Silver, solar and the rotation out of tech

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.