Melody Wright, author of M3 Melody Substack, returns to the show for an in-person episode to discuss the frozen spring selling season and reveals disturbing signs of distress bubbling beneath the surface, including mortgage delinquencies rising at the exact time of year they should be falling. She exposes the "rage delisting" phenomenon where stubborn sellers refuse price cuts despite a massive inventory buildup, explains why the housing shortage narrative is a myth perpetuated by builders seeking a bailout, and warns that prime mortgages are now showing weakness for the first time. Melody argues that a 35-50% price correction is needed for median household income to afford median home prices, with the first wave of 10-12% likely over the next couple years. She reveals a massive shadow inventory wave from boomers that could add 20% more homes each year for the next decade, discusses how investors are fire selling (one investor dumping 300 rentals in a single market), and predicts the back half of 2026 could be "really ugly" as forbearance programs expire. Her advice: sellers should cut prices quickly to avoid cutting further, while buyers should stay patient because "the supply is coming."

Links:

YouTube; https://www.youtube.com/@m3_melody

X: https://x.com/m3_melody

Substack: https://m3melody.substack.com/

Timestamps

0:00 Introduction - Melody Wright returns, spring selling season

1:59 Housing market assessment - "Take three of another year frozen"

5:28 Distress bubbling under the surface

8:15 Why the shortage narrative is so pervasive

11:46 Tracking 86 markets now

15:05 Most worrisome areas - The delusional northeast

16:11 Boomer stubbornness and shadow inventory wave

16:38 How big is the shadow inventory? 20% increase for next 10 years

18:22 How far do prices need to correct? 35% to 50%

20:42 Warning signals

24:25 Most important thing overlooked

27:36 Base case - 35% to 50% correction over significant time

28:46 Spring season warning

29:54 Back half of year could be really ugly

30:17 Shortage of affordable homes because they're mispriced

30:58 Advice for sellers - Get real appraisal, cut quickly

32:36 Advice for buyers - Stay stubborn, wait for math to work

33:04 How does this feel different from 2008?

36:45 Who's buying now if institutionals are fire selling?

37:57 Parting words - Patience for buyers, supply is coming

Michael Pento, president and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies (PPS), returns to The Julia La Roche for episode 368 to warn that the three asset bubbles in stocks, credit, and real estate continue growing to unprecedented levels, with total market cap now at 230% of GDP versus a 90% average. He reveals that Powell has quietly printed $170 billion since December in an undeclared QE program, calls Powell's tenure "horrific," and celebrates his departure. Pento explains he's "nervously long" the market using his five-sector inflation-deflation model, currently positioned for stagflation with commodities, precious metals, and energy. He warns that credit markets will fracture first, with private credit now at $2 trillion (bigger than the $1.3 trillion subprime market in 2008), and predicts June redemptions could trigger a death spiral. Pento believes we need a 50% market correction to return to normalcy, warns we could see 15% interest rates like the 1980s but with a far worse debt backdrop, and argues the bottom 80% of Americans are already living in depression-like conditions while crony capitalism enriches the top 20%. He sees two paths forward: voluntary asset price reconciliation or forced hyperinflation leading to currency reset.

Links:

https://pentoport.com/

https://twitter.com/michaelpento

0:00 Introduction - Michael Pento returns after 6 months

0:59 Big picture macro view - Bubbles grow bigger

2:19 Powell's "horrific tenure" - $4.5 trillion printed

3:32 QE program continues - $170 billion since December

4:39 Kevin Warsh-led Fed - What changes are coming?

5:52 Warsh will punish Wall Street, boost Main Street

7:06 Stock bubble metrics - 230% of GDP (average is 90%)

8:24 Crony capitalism vs. free market economics

9:10 Why capitalism gets a bad name

10:01 Home price to income ratio at all-time highs

11:01 Disconnect between stock market highs and consumer sentiment lows

11:35 Only top 20% doing well - The "i-shaped economy"

12:33 AI spending reminds Michael of 1999 tech bubble

13:33 Are you confident Kevin Warsh can get us back to normalcy?

14:41 What would normal market valuations look like?

15:06 Would need 50% correction to return to normal

17:05 Wouldn't printing just set us up for more problems?

18:57 Either scenario leads to higher rates

19:37 Implications of double-digit rates on everything

20:38 Are you still nervously long the market?

21:19 Michael's not a perma bear - History of market crashes

23:02 How dangerous can this bubble be when it bursts?

24:03 Michael's 5-sector inflation-deflation model

25:14 Precious metals trade - Why only 6% position

26:41 Energy thesis - After Iran war

27:30 Explaining the 5 sectors - Which is most worrisome?

28:25 Stagflation is the base case going forward

29:01 Post-recession: $6 trillion deficits, $12 trillion Fed balance sheet

29:55 Could we see 15% interest rates like 1980?

31:17 What's the end game here?

33:21 Are we past the point of no return?

34:58 Which bubble bursts first - The epicenter?

35:44 Watch credit markets first - Private credit warning

36:46 June redemptions could trigger death spiral

37:47 Is private credit too big to fail now?

38:21 Risk not getting attention - Pressure on middle class

40:00 Buy now pay later defaults surging

40:29 Bottom 80% living in depression conditions

41:18 Preventing tremors creates epic shocks

42:48 Has anyone talked about $170 billion of QE since December?

43:24 What makes Michael hopeful for the future

44:01 Closing thoughts

Warsh's arrival at the Fed actually means in practice — significant personnel changes, new models, and what Chris calls nothing short of an "earthquake at the central bank." Chris explains why there will be no rate cuts for a while, why the Fed balance sheet is growing again despite Warsh wanting to shrink it, and the one-to-one relationship between the balance sheet and public debt that most people aren't talking about. Plus: silver is in physical shortage and can't be delivered in parts of Asia, private credit is getting quiet as the bad headlines pile up, AMD is Chris's AI play of choice, and why the Iran war means "traumatic shortages by June" even if a deal were struck tomorrow. Chris also answers viewer questions on Warsh shrinking the balance sheet, gold under a tightening regime, the PennyMac LIBOR lawsuit, and Annaly Capital earnings. And Julia closes on her first house.

Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrap or call 855-573-0817

Links:

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira842

Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome & intro

0:49 Fed balance sheet growing again even though Warsh wants to shrink it

1:08 The one-to-one relationship between the Fed balance sheet and public debt

3:28 Will we continue to see a more inflationary environment?

3:37 Silver on a tear — physical shortage, can't deliver the metal

4:41 Still money pouring into private credit

8:32 Too many dollars chasing too few returns — what this means for markets

11:10 Are we setting up for a longer term risk?

12:13 GameStop CEO's bid for eBay — what does Chris make of it?

14:08 Changing the models, retiring staff — "an earthquake at the central bank"

16:32 "No rate cuts for a while" — Warsh has to establish rapport first

19:25 Iran hostilities dragging on — how much longer is this a major risk?

the year

23:02 Adding to gold positions — "the selloff was a gift"

25:36 Mortgage sector — rates up, companies waiting for cuts that aren't coming

26:16 Banks not attractive right now — what would make them more attractive?

27:30 Viewer Q — How could Warsh shrink the Fed balance sheet?

27:56 Scarce reserve regime — T-bills, discount window, can he get it done?

29:02 Viewer Q — Is gold a good investment under a tightening regime?

29:52 Viewer Q — PennyMac lawsuit over LIBOR/SOFR transition

31:31 Viewer Q — Annaly Capital earnings — "good earnings, beat expectations"

32:13 What is Chris watching next week?

33:17 GoldCo sponsor — goldco.com/thewrap — 855-573-0817

Michael Green, Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager for Simplify Asset Management, joins Julia La Roche on episode 366 to break down what he calls the most important and overlooked structural shift in financial history — the rise of passive investing. Green argues that the market isn't broken in the way most people think: it's not fraud or irrational exuberance, it's the mechanical consequence of a regulatory change in 2006 that turned 401k contributions into an automatic, valuation-blind buying machine. With passive now at 55% of the market — and rising 4% per year — Green shares new research showing that somewhere between 65% and 80%, a 1987-style crash stops being a possibility and becomes nearly inevitable. He also connects the dots between our retirement system, the housing crisis, and why both boomers and millennials are scared — just for completely different reasons.

Links:

Follow Mike on X: https://twitter.com/profplum99Read

Mike’s Substack: https://www.yesigiveafig.com/Visit Simplify: https://www.simplify.us/

Timestamps

00:00 Intro and welcome Mike Green

1:04 - What "broken markets" actually means today

2:40 - The Costanza market and how Mike's research began

6:21 - Passive went from 2% to 55% of the market since 1992

7:05 - Why passive investing is just momentum with no valuation filter

9:45 - The 2006 Pension Protection Act — the legislation nobody talks about

10:13 - Why Vanguard and Bogle aren't the ones to blame

10:19 - The book: The Greatest Story Ever Sold

10:39 - The academic paper that forced Mike to rewrite the book

13:59 - Type A vs Type B savers — and the snow cone moment

14:35 - Prices don't move because of information. They move because of flows.

15:08 - The threshold: 65–80% passive and the market becomes unstable

16:07 - Why the coming crash could be worse than 1987

19:37 - The XIV collapse — and what it taught Mike about predicting crashes

22:00 - Is there a disconnect between markets and the economy right now?

22:19 - Nvidia's margins, vendor financing, and the Cisco parallel

24:10 - The S&P could be worth less than 2,000 on a pure DCF basis

25:29 - Pushing back on the "we've never been better off" narrative

27:21 - The valley of death and the precarity line

28:36 - Why demographics are at the center of everything

29:29 - Why boomers are terrified too — and why that matters for younger people

31:14 - The housing trap: boomers won't sell, millennials can't buy

34:21 - What does all this say about the social fabric?

35:18 - "Tax wealth, not work" — the tax code we had in the 1950s

36:41 - Why a wealth tax is actually the wrong solution

38:11 - Wrap up

Veteran natural resource investor Rick Rule, CEO of Rule Investment Media and co-founder of Battle Bank, returns to break down a rapidly deteriorating macro picture, warning that oil markets are currently pricing in anticipation of a shortage — not the shortage itself — and that the next seven to ten days could be a watershed moment if the Gulf conflict doesn't de-escalate. He explains why gold may moderate near term despite the chaos (strong dollar, rising yields), but remains convicted it will preserve purchasing power over the next decade as the US dollar loses 75% of its purchasing power. Rick also flags uranium and nuclear power as the clearest long-term beneficiary of the energy crisis, updates his silver miner trade (up ~21%), and sounds the alarm on a potential credit crunch in private and junk bond markets that few are talking about.

00:00 — Introduction

00:43 — Oil crisis: why prices are "anticipatory" & what happens in 7–10 days

06:07 — The truth about gold & fear (it's not what you think)

08:03 — Long bonds breach 5% — what that means for you

11:31 — How to protect yourself: liquidity, gold & balance sheets

15:36 — Gold at $4,800 & the silver miner trade update

19:35 — Oil above $100 and what it signals about the global economy

22:47 — Why the next 7–10 days are critical

27:28 — The biggest unsung winner of this war: uranium & nuclear

31:07 — How to actually invest in uranium (names & tickers)

32:53 — Near-term bleak, long-term better — Rick's full outlook

34:05 — Why is the stock market hitting new highs during a war?

37:06 — New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh: hawk or not?

38:54 — Where we are in the commodity super cycle

41:44 — Battle Bank update + Symposium + free portfolio ranking offer

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down what he calls one of the most significant weeks in Fed history — Powell's final press conference as chairman, his decision to stay on as a Fed governor to block Trump from a second appointment, and what it means for Kevin Warsh walking into a hostile committee with the most dissenting votes since 1992. Chris explains why the Fed has been "the key engine of progressive socialism in Washington" since 1935, what a Warsh-led Fed actually looks like in practice, and why the Trump White House missed a political layup by not hanging "the burning tire of home price affordability" around Powell's neck. Plus: why sulfur — not oil — is the one word that sums up the biggest threat to the global economy right now, what China's sulfuric acid export ban means for copper, silver, and inflation, and why distressed real estate is "the next trade."

Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrap or call 855-573-0817

Links:

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira840

Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome & intro — what a week it was

2:05 Powell staying as fed governor

5:08 Warsh — "a hawk on inflation but a supply sider"

7:15 Powell's warning about regional Fed presidents

8:10 What can we expect from a Warsh-led Fed?

11:30 "The burning tire they should have hung around Powell's neck"

12:25 "What would be the message?" — Chris on political messaging and affordability

14:44 What change is Chris most looking forward to at the Fed?

16:41 Inflation is accelerating

17:28 Sulfur — the one word that sums up the global economic threat

20:17 What is Chris doing with his precious metals right now?

21:17 US equity markets hitting record highs — what does Chris make of it? 24:30 Distressed real estate is "the next trade"

29:40 One year anniversary of Inflated — reflection and what's come to fruition

34:32 What is Chris watching next week?

In this episode, Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of QI Research and former Fed insider, explains why she's "less fed up" despite disagreeing with Fed policy - praising Jerome Powell's decision to stay on as governor to protect Fed independence, drawing parallels to Marriner Eccles' 1948 stand against President Truman. Danielle calls Powell's move "patriotic" while warning we're "flirting with a liquidity crisis" as non-banks have become "too big to fail." She discusses the challenges Kevin Warsh will face as incoming chair, argues the Fed has failed its employment mandate, and explains how the economy cannot withstand persistently high oil prices and interest rates simultaneously.

Links:

Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth

Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI

Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655

Timestamps:

0:00 Introduction - Fed day with Danielle DiMartino Booth

0:32 Powell's last time at the podium - Takeaways

1:48 The Eccles parallel - Fed independence fight in 1948

2:39 Why Danielle is "less fed up" today

2:57 The Powell move - Staying on as governor

4:20 Risk of being perceived as shadow Fed chair?

5:39 Triple hawkish dissent

6:16 Unprecedented dissent levels - Early resistance signs?

7:57 Powell's legacy and how it changed today

9:22 The Eccles legacy - Established as governor, not chair

10:27 Powell's move was "patriotic" - Protecting Fed independence

11:27 What is your read on Kevin Warsh?

12:48 Liquidity crises take precedence - The Mike Tyson test

13:40 0% chance of rate cut - Should they have cut?

14:47 Fed has failed its employment mandate

16:48 Oil prices and disinflationary demand destruction

17:17 Bankruptcies accelerating, layoffs increasing

18:01 Home prices falling - Thinking about inflation wrong

19:16 The valley of death at $100k income level

19:32 Higher for longer means more pain

20:34 How does building consensus at the Fed work?

22:04 Flirting with a liquidity crisis - How big is the risk?

22:38 Pummeling the housing market

23:26 More sellers than buyers - Biggest disconnect ever

24:09 Investment boom or panic stockpiling ahead of tariffs?

25:27 Economy can't withstand high oil and high rates

28:07 Base case for rest of 2026 - Fed cuts

30:43 If you could advise Kevin Warsh, what would you say?

32:17 Bloomberg chat - hot takes with institutional investors

33:34 What's keeping you up at night and making you hopeful?

35:37 Non-banks now too big to fail

37:06 Systemic risk from non-banking system

37:25 Mother's Day tribute - Legacy and three graduating kids

38:03 Closing thoughts

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down what's really driving the rally, why the inflationary impact of the Iran war will stay with us through the end of 2026, and why the Fed's hands are essentially tied regardless of who sits in the chair. Chris also digs into Q1 bank earnings — what the numbers are really saying about credit risk, why most banks are still refusing to disclose their private credit exposures, and why he believes the debt in these deals will ultimately be converted to equity — with retail and institutional investors left holding the bag. Plus: commercial real estate as a long-term drag on cities, the New York pied-à-terre tax as political theater, gold and silver ETF picks, and why Chris says the U.S. equity market would be "comfortable with the devil by lunchtime."

Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrap or call 855-573-0817

Links: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira837Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen "Homework" from Chris :) https://shanakaanslemperera.substack.com/p/the-reserve-barbell

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

Timestamps:

0:00 Intro

0:27 Breaking news — DOJ drops Powell probe, Chris reacts

2:03 Chris's assessment of Powell — "Mediocre"

2:18 "The burning tire of home price affordability"

3:58 "He could be attacking Warsh by Thanksgiving"

5:49 Does Warsh come in as a hawk?

9:45 Main episode begins

10:15 Middle East/Iran update

12:56 Stagflation is the base case

15:00 Truflation viewer question

16:50 Spirit Airlines bailout

20:32 Kevin Warsh hearing circus

23:29 VantageScore — "election year press release"

27:15 D. Ricardo's letter on private credit

29:00 NVIDIA — "I would not be a buyer"

30:54 The generational experience gap

31:49 "You think we may get a crisis this year?"

32:45 Share repurchases — "funded with debt"

34:06 Gold homework — Reserve Barbell

37:07 The passive bid

38:00 Viewer Q — community banks

40:11 Viewer Q — Did Chris lock in his mortgage?

42:11 FOMC next week

42:30 "Distressed real estate is the next trade"