David Rosenberg, founder of Rosenberg Research and author of Bear in the Bull Ring, says he has never seen so many imbalances in the economy and markets in his 40-year career. He argues we’re in an AI-driven bubble, now in “extra innings.” Ten stocks make up over 40% of market cap while the median stock is down nearly 20%. The Shiller CAPE has topped 40 and the equity risk premium has turned negative. Beneath roughly 2% GDP growth, he sees an economy held up by AI capex, a falling savings rate and stock-market wealth effects, while hiring stalls and real incomes shrink. Rosenberg warns that Kevin Warsh’s Fed risks a policy mistake by hiking into a supply shock with a flat yield curve. He also flags fading fiscal stimulus, midterm gridlock and canceled data center projects as headwinds that put recession odds above 50-50 for 2027. His prescription is to de-risk without going to zero equities: shift toward Treasuries (two-year and 10-year notes), defensive sectors like utilities, healthcare and REITs, gold, and some cash, so you’re one of the “strong hands” when the cycle turns.

Thank you to our partners

Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052

Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:

Book: https://www.amazon.com/Bear-Bullring-Independent-Thinking-Protects

Website: https://rosenbergresearch.com/

X: https://x.com/EconguyRosie

Timestamps:

0:00 Intro: Protect your capital

0:21 Welcome David Rosenberg

1:36 Most imbalances in 40 years: a narrow market & fragile economy

6:57 What’s propping up the economy: AI spending & the wealth effect

10:23 Market call: CAPE above 40 & a negative equity risk premium

13:46 Why nobody calls it a bubble until it bursts

18:29 Don’t extrapolate: lessons from oil in 2008

23:17 Fed chasing headline inflation & recession odds

26:09 Is Warsh’s Fed dangerous?

31:32 Four supply shocks & where tariff inflation went

36:09 Labor market weaker than perceived

37:51 Will the Fed be forced to cut? The rookie Fed chair pattern

41:49 Greenspan, 1987 & testing a new Fed chair

42:40 Midterms, fiscal gridlock & a growth slowdown

45:47 AI backlash & data center cancellations

50:33 2001 recession, valuations & savings rate risk

53:42 Where to be on the Treasury curve

54:48 Bonds under-owned & boomers’ 55% stock exposure

1:00:56 Recession vs. growth slowdown

1:01:59 AI credit cracks: Oracle & CoreWeave

1:04:29 Gold outlook & why Treasuries

1:09:35 Book: Bear in the Bull Ring & independent thinking

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

In this week's episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Julia and Chris start with President Trump’s $5,000 cash dividend promise, which Whalen calls “bread and circuses,” and why affordability, driven by gasoline and diesel prices tied to the war with Iran, could deliver a 50-seat House swing to Democrats. Whalen says we’re already on a double-digit inflation path, points to September’s PPI as the highest since late 2022, and argues the Fed may be forced to hike before the midterms, possibly over Chairman Warsh’s objection. Fresh from the Mortgage Bankers Association conference in Chicago, he shares why industry insiders like Stan Middleman expect home prices to soften 5–10% over the next three years, how construction costs are putting a floor under prices, and why layoffs are hitting mortgage lenders and realtors. He also covers United Wholesale Mortgage, bank earnings (JPMorgan’s miss and Bank of America’s record $1.5 billion OCC fine), and why he sees the AI trade as circular finance heading for a reset. They close with viewer questions on banks holding low-coupon COVID-era mortgages and the outlook for Annaly.

Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/

Links:

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571X

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

⁠

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro and welcome back

00:43 Trump’s $5,000 dividend promise: “bread and circuses”

02:54 Could Democrats see a 50-seat House swing?

03:16 Affordability as the top issue: gas, diesel and the Iran war

07:16 Are we on a double-digit inflation path?

08:28 Fed hike ahead? Yellen says “transitory” again

09:44 Demand destruction, fertilizer and food prices

11:31 Takeaways from the Mortgage Bankers Association conference

13:33 Stan Middleman’s outlook: smaller price reset than expected

15:24 Construction costs and replacement value as a price floor

17:13 Will the Fed hike before the midterms? Warsh, Lisa Cook and the Supreme Court

18:57 The mood in mortgage: layoffs and a tougher 2027

20:36 Is there a bull case for United Wholesale Mortgage?

21:58 Bank earnings: JPMorgan’s miss and Bank of America’s $1.5B fine

24:36 The AI reset and circular finance

26:59 Viewer question: banks holding low-rate COVID mortgages

29:55 Viewer question: the outlook for Annaly

31:34 What Whalen is watching next

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

New York Times’ bestselling author Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to explain why he believes the market’s surface strength hides serious stress underneath. He points to cracks in AI data center financing: canceled data center IPOs, collapsing CoreWeave bond prices, and a surge in convertible bond issuance from neoclouds, which he calls the “last saloon” warning sign last seen in 1999 and 2021. With consumers hit by higher rates, soaring diesel and jet fuel costs, and iconic brands like Nike, Home Depot and McDonald’s down sharply, McDonald argues the Fed is “faking” its hiking cycle and that smart money now expects three rate cuts before three hikes. He describes an internal market crash masked by passive flows into mega-cap tech, explains the year-end “convergence trade,” and makes his case for why gold could run from $4,000 to $6,500 and why silver may be one of the best trades of the next 12 months

Thank you to our partners

Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052

Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:

How To Listen When Markets Speak: https://www.amazon.com/Listen-When-Markets-Speak-Opportunities-ebook/dp/B0C4DFVFNR

Colossal Failure of Common Sense: https://www.amazon.com/Colossal-Failure-Common-Sense-Collapse/dp/B002IFLWMK

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Convertbond

Bear Traps Report: https://www.thebeartrapsreport.com/

Timestamps:

0:00 Preview: the Fed is “faking” its hiking cycle

0:19 Welcome Larry McDonald

1:20 Learning from mentors and “cage matches”

2:06 Why AI data center financing is breaking down

4:53 Convertible bonds: the “last saloon”

8:31 The ConvertBond.com story

9:09 Credit warnings: canceled IPOs, CCCs and leveraged loans

11:15 The million-dollar bet: three hikes or three cuts?

11:49 The consumer takes four or five left hooks

15:13 Why the Fed is faking its hiking cycle

16:28 Record highs, but an internal market crash

21:02 Passive investing and the convergence trade

23:19 What could trigger the convergence: AI capex and the midterms

24:43 The case for gold and silver

27:28 Silver, solar and the rotation out of tech

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

In this week's episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris joins Julia La Roche to break down why affordability, the economy and the Iran war have put Republicans on the defensive, and why a Democratic Congress could mean two years of investigations and a tougher regulatory climate for markets. Ahead of the Mortgage Bankers Association annual in Chicago, Chris says the mortgage business is facing a “funeral,” with volumes and profits down, headcount still bloated from COVID, and plenty of firms quietly for sale. He explains why inflation and soaring construction costs are keeping home prices supported despite 7%+ mortgage rates, and why he’s pushing back on Jim Bianco’s bullish bond call. In Chris’s view, the federal deficit nobody in Washington or at the Fed wants to discuss is the biggest force behind higher long-term yields. He also covers the narrow, AI-driven stock market, stalled bank stocks, and viewer questions on capital gains taxes, home prices and whether energy stocks still make sense if the Iran war ends.

Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/

Links:

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571X

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

⁠

Timestamps:

00:00 – Intro

00:49 – Midterms less than a month out: how Trump has hurt GOP chances

03:11 – Affordability is still the No. 1 issue

04:33 – MBA Annual in Chicago: firms quietly up for sale

07:35 – How much downside is left in housing if rates hold?

09:06 – Replacement cost vs. market value, and why builders are pulling back

10:30 – Housing outlook: still a seller’s market

11:59 – Why Chris disagrees with Jim Bianco’s bullish bond call

14:01 – What’s really pushing the 10-year higher: the Treasury buyback misstep

15:42 – Why the Fed won’t talk about the deficit

18:33 – Are we headed for a debt reset or “Jubilee”?

19:40 – Record S&P highs vs. AI bubble fears

23:05 – Why financials are “dead in the water”

24:26 – The mortgage industry “funeral”: downsizing and consolidation

26:27 – Viewer Q: Where are mortgage rates and home prices headed?

28:55 – Viewer Q: Should Congress hike capital gains taxes?

30:50 – Viewer Q: Should you wait to buy energy until the Iran war ends?

33:58 – What Chris is watching next week

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, joins The Julia La Roche Show for a special episode featuring their fireside chat from the Greenwich Economic Forum. Dalio explains the five forces he sees driving today's world: the debt cycle, internal political conflict, the breakdown of the post-1945 geopolitical order, acts of nature, and technology, especially AI. He says rising bond yields reflect a basic supply-and-demand problem. Washington spends about $7 trillion a year but takes in about $5 trillion, and foreign buyers like China and Japan are pulling back. He warns that a debt "heart attack" is likely within the next two years. He calls the period after the midterms and through 2028 especially risky, and says markets are in a bubble by his own indicators, comparing today to the tech boom before 1929. Dalio also discusses why he recommends 5–15% in gold, why he holds only about 1% in Bitcoin, and where he sees opportunity: companies being transformed by AI, ASEAN countries, Singapore, the UAE, and inflation-indexed bonds with real yields near 3%. He closes with the three things that make a country successful. A special thank you to the Greenwich Economic Forum for having me as a moderator! Visit https://www.thegeforum.com/

Thank you to The Julia La Roche Show sponsors:

Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052

Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:

Website: https://www.principles.com/

X: https://x.com/RayDalio

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/raydalio/

Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome + Greenwich Economic Forum
1:03 Dalio's five forces, and the lesson of Nixon in 1971
6:20 Acts of nature, a super El Niño, and AI as a world-changing force
7:54 Is the U.S. moving from Stage 5 to Stage 6?
9:15 Why bond yields are rising: supply, demand, and $2T deficits
12:38 Is a debt "heart attack" coming? Dalio's timeline
16:18 Midterms, internal conflict, and weak expected stock returns
17:41 Are we in a bubble? Lessons from 1929
21:55 How Dalio is positioned: short debt, focus on diversification
22:30 Why gold belongs in a portfolio (5–15%)
24:35 Bitcoin: why Dalio holds only about 1%
25:47 Where to diversify: AI adopters, ASEAN, Singapore, UAE, Europe, TIPS
29:00 How the cycle plays out, and how to prepare
31:25 What makes a country successful? Education, civility, and avoiding conflict
33:54 Closing

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

Is private credit the next 2008? Nick Nemeth, author and publisher of Mispriced Assets, joins Julia La Roche to explain why he sees systemic risk building in private credit, and why the real danger may sit inside life insurers' $10 trillion balance sheets. Nick explains how Dodd-Frank pushed risk out of the banks and into asset-manager-owned insurers like Athene. He says defaults are already running above 2008 levels, AAA-rated CLOs may not be as safe as advertised, and opaque Level 3 marks and 20–30x leverage could hide big losses. He also covers what this means for annuity holders, why regulators are falling short, his public fight over Cliffwater, how contagion could spread through reinsurance, and whether the next bailout could be big enough without breaking the dollar. He ends with bold 12-month predictions, including AAA CLO defaults, an insurance industry shakeout, and Kevin Warsh's first real test at the Fed.

Thank you to our partners

Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052

Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:

Substack: https://mispricedassets.substack.com/

X: https://x.com/NickNemo17

Timestamps:

0:00 Credit stress before the Iran War
0:23 Welcome Nick Nemeth of Mispriced Assets
1:07 Macro view: a highly levered system
4:20 Money printing, inflation and the dollar
7:00 Private credit defaults are rising
10:23 Rising yields: defaults above 2008 levels
11:46 Why this is systemic, and how it compares to 2008
14:21 AAA CLOs "safer than the U.S. government"?
17:28 How we got here: Dodd-Frank pushed risk outside the banks
19:33 The insurance connection
26:30 Is your annuity safe?
27:18 Are regulators asleep?
29:25 Nick's biggest worry: bad marks and extreme leverage
34:42 Ratings agencies and the Cliffwater fight
39:33 The fix: mark-to-market and transparency
40:58 How credit contagion could spread
46:49 Why isn't the market down 20%?
50:52 12-month predictions: AAA CLO defaults and an insurance shakeout
53:09 Kevin Warsh's first test
55:23 Where to find Nick

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

The Wrap with Chris Whalen is back after a weak jobs report, with just 29,000 jobs added against expectations of 90,000, and long-term yields still elevated. Chris argues that rising bond yields reflect real inflation running in the mid-to-high single digits, well above the official numbers, and that the era of Fed-suppressed rates that began in 2008 is over. He expects the Fed to hold in October and possibly hike in November, and makes the case that Powell gave Trump nearly everything he wanted while incoming Chair Warsh is a hawk. Chris explains why $8–9 diesel and high replacement costs mean building more homes won't fix affordability, and why consumer credit stress is spreading upward. In his words, the K-shaped economy is "fast becoming an L." He reveals he's now short a couple of bank names, has rotated heavily into energy, and sees "long energy, short financials" as the trade for the next year or two. He also previews a tough midterm for Republicans, answers a viewer question on raising taxes, and discusses Judy Shelton's move to Treasury and his critique of the FASB's mortgage servicing rights proposal.

Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/

Links:

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571X

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

⁠

Timestamps:

0:00 – Welcome to The Wrap

0:18 – Jobs report misses badly, but yields stay high

1:28 – Is real inflation higher than the official stats?

2:51 – October FOMC: hike, hold, or wait for November?

4:20 – Powell gave Trump everything he wanted

6:24 – The easy environment is over: diesel and demand destruction

7:36 – Why building more homes won't fix affordability

9:28 – 7%+ mortgage rates and pain in the mortgage industry

10:40 – Portfolio rebalancing: selling financials, buying energy

11:43 – Cracks in consumer credit

13:01 – Restaurant and grocery margins (and the Publix real estate play)

14:45 – The K-shaped economy is becoming an L

17:11 – Why Chris is bearish on banks and shorting a few

18:34 – Is a recession ahead?

18:56 – Midterms, affordability, and Trump's lame-duck period

21:29 – Will Warsh give Trump what he wants?

23:36 – Viewer Q: Why not raise taxes to cut the deficit?

25:36 – Judy Shelton joins Treasury, and gold as money

27:01 – Chris critiques the FASB mortgage servicing rights proposal

29:08 – What Chris is watching: credit markets and Q3 earnings

31:18 – Why this year will be remembered as extraordinary

31:58 – Wrap-up

Dr. Mark Thornton, Senior Fellow at the Mises Institute, joins Julia to explain why the bond market is the pivotal story right now. The 10- and 30-year Treasury yields are back above 5%, the national debt is over $40 trillion, and deficits are running at about $2 trillion a year. Thornton argues that this is wartime-level borrowing during supposedly good times. It crowds out private investment, weighs on wages, and widens the K-shaped divide between asset owners and everyone else. He explains why he thinks the Fed's recent hike won't be its last. In his view, Chairman Warsh and Secretary Bessent are managing the problem rather than solving it, and a market break or crisis could give the Fed cover to restart money printing. He describes the US as merging onto the "highway to hyperinflation," draws on historical cases from Revolutionary France to Weimar Germany, and closes with why he expects hard assets and commodities to outperform financial assets over the next decade.

Thank you to our partners

Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052

Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links

X: https://x.com/DrMarkThornton

Free Hayek book: https://store.mises.org/Hayek-for-the-21st-Century-P11367.aspx

Mises Institute: https://mises.org/profile/mark-thornton

Timestamps:

0:00 Intro: Why bonds are the big worry

0:43 Big picture: 10- and 30-year yields at 25-year highs

4:24 Are we in a new higher-rate regime?

11:48 Wartime deficits in "good times"

18:21 Who wins and who loses from easy money

20:25 Young people, housing, and the K-shaped economy

24:02 Food, energy, and the Persian Gulf conflict

28:10 Are we on the on-ramp to hyperinflation?

34:03 Fed rate hikes: more coming, and what's next

39:27 No consequences: the "magic checkbook"

47:28 How to protect yourself: hard assets

51:28 Where to find Dr. Thornton's work