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Are we in a recovery or a price crash? In this week's episode, we tackle the mixed signals hitting the New Zealand market. BNZ economists are telling us "don't stop believin'" as business confidence hits multi-year highs, yet Trade Me data shows asking prices plummeted by over $80,000 in the last two months of 2025.

We break down why REINZ says buyer confidence (and FOMO) is officially returning, despite the confusing data out of regions like Gisborne. Plus, we dive into the "Oil Tanker" effect—why dropping interest rates haven't put more money in your pocket yet—and settle the decade-long debate: Did KiwiSaver actually outperform property investment over the last 10 years?

Topic #1: NZ Adviser 22nd of January - "Don’t stop believin’" in NZ recovery: BNZ economist

Topic #2: RNZ 22nd of January - Confidence returning to property market, REINZ says

Topic #3: Good Returns 21st of January - Why mortgage holders don’t feel like there is more money in their pocket

Topic #4: 1News 20th of January - KiwiSaver or your house - which will give better investment returns?

Topic #5: Interest.co.nz 21st of January - Average asking price of residential properties listed on Trade Me Property sank $82,500 in November and December - Auckland down $126,400, Gisborne takes a huge hit

🚀 FREE EVENT: How to Succeed with Property Investing Confused by the mixed data? Don't guess your way through 2026. Join us for our free online masterclass where we share strategies to navigate this volatility, understand the "lag," and build a portfolio that works. 👉 Register for your free spot here: https://www.propertyapprentice.co.nz/auckland-events/

Book a free, no-obligation meeting with Paul Roberts: https://www.propertyapprentice.co.nz/free-strategy-call

#NZProperty #PropertyInvesting #KiwiSaver #InterestRatesNZ #BNZ #RealEstateNZ #FinancialFreedom #PropertyApprenti

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Disclaimer: The information provided in this video is for educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized financial advice. We recommend seeking advice from a qualified professional before making any investment decisions.

*Property Advice Group Limited trading as Property Apprentice has been granted a FULL Licence with the Financial Markets Authority of New Zealand. (FSP Number: FSP157564) Debbie Roberts | Financial Adviser (FSP221305) For our Public disclosure statement please go to our website or you may request a copy free of charge.

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Is the "Buyer's Market" finally here? In this first episode of 2026, we break down a massive week for New Zealand real estate. The data is in: December stock levels have hit a 10-year high, giving buyers more choice than we've seen in a decade. But with new rules for Granny Flats kicking in today and economists predicting a twist in the OCR tale, the window of opportunity might be moving faster than you think.

We discuss the new legislation allowing 70sqm minor dwellings without consent—a game-changer for adding value and yield . We also dive into the latest lending disputes regarding age limits on mortgages and why Westpac and Tony Alexander are warning that the upcoming election could throw price predictions off course.

In this episode, we cover:

• 🏠 Record Listings: Realestate.co.nz reports the highest December stock levels since 2014.
• 🔨 Granny Flats Unleashed: The new "no-consent" rules for 70sqm builds start today—but there are conditions.
• 📉 OCR Forecast: Why Westpac is now pencilling in a rate hike post-election.
• 🗳️ Election Impact: Tony Alexander explains why the 2026 election makes forecasting house prices risky.
• 👵 Lending Rules: How old is "too old" for a 30-year mortgage? We review a key Banking Ombudsman decision.

🚀 FREE EVENT: How to Succeed with Property Investing Don't guess your way through 2026. Join us for our free online masterclass where we share strategies to navigate this new market window, utilize the new density rules, and build a portfolio that works. 👉 Register for your free spot here

Book a free, no-obligation chat with Paul here: https://www.propertyapprentice.co.nz/free-strategy-call/

Timestamps & Sources

0:00 - Intro & Happy New Year!

1:16 - Market Update: Stock hits 10-year High (Realestate.co.nz) 2:30 - New Rules: 70sqm Granny Flats starting today (1News) 4:15 - Lending: Age discrimination and Home Loans (RNZ) 6:00 - Economic Outlook: Westpac predicts one OCR Hike (Good Returns) 8:20 - Expert Analysis: Tony Alexander on the 2026 Election & Prices (Oneroof) 10:45 - Summary & Upcoming Free Events

Sources & Articles Discussed

01:17:00 Topic #1: Good Returns 13th of January - One OCR hike pencilled in by Westpac

02:58:00 Topic #2: 1News 15th of January - No-consent granny flats from today, but it's 'not a free-for-all'

04:41:00 Topic #3: RNZ 13th of January - How old is too old for a home loan?

08:28:00 Topic #4: Oneroof.co.nz 14th of January - Tony Alexander: Why the 2026 election is throwing house price predictions off course

11:21:00 Topic #5: Realestate.co.nz 12th of January - Rare advantage for property seekers as stock hits 10-year December high

#NZProperty #PropertyInvesting #GrannyFlats #InterestRatesNZ #TonyAlexander #RealEstateNZ #Fin

Support the show

Disclaimer: The information provided in this video is for educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized financial advice. We recommend seeking advice from a qualified professional before making any investment decisions.

*Property Advice Group Limited trading as Property Apprentice has been granted a FULL Licence with the Financial Markets Authority of New Zealand. (FSP Number: FSP157564) Debbie Roberts | Financial Adviser (FSP221305) For our Public disclosure statement please go to our website or you may request a copy free of charge.

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Topic #1: Stuff 10th of December - Capital crunch: Central Wellington now has the cheapest property in the country

Topic #2: RNZ 9th of December - GST used to be 10%, is it going to rise again?

Topic #3: Interest.co.nz 11th of December- Average asking prices on Trade Me Property cooled in most regions in November

Topic #4: RNZ 9th of December - The OCR is down, so why are home loans rising?

Topic #5: Financial Markets Authority 11th of December - FMA censures Opes for breaching financial advice provider licensee obligations

A special thanks to Feedspot for naming us as one of the "Top New Zealand Real Estate Podcasts".

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*Nothing from this episode should be taken as individual financial advice.

*Property Advice Group Limited trading as Property Apprentice has been granted a FULL Licence with the Financial Markets Authority of New Zealand. (FSP Number: FSP157564) Debbie Roberts | Financial Adviser (FSP221305) For our Public disclosure statement please go to our website or you may request a copy free of charge.