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OUT OF CONSENSUS

OUT OF CONSENSUS

De : Armin Popp
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Interviews, solo casts exploring key discussions around ideas and trends that challenge the obvious.© 2023 CASSANDRA ECONOMICS PTE. LTD. Economie Finances privées
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    • #23 Jonathan Berkshire Miller – NATO Strategy - Quo Vadis?
      Jul 12 2023
      The NATO summit is set to take place in Vilnius, Lithuania, a location of significance due to its history of experiencing Russian aggression.The summit will address several issues, including the future of Ukraine's role in the alliance and the approach towards China.Ukraine is not expected to become a member of the alliance at the Vilnius summit, but discussions will focus on the form and speed of its potential future integration.NATO has taken a bold approach towards China, recognizing the challenges it poses in areas such as space dominance, semiconductors, industrial policy, and maritime security.The Chinese perceive the expansion of security partnerships as a threat, particularly as they see the US building an "Asian NATO".The future of defense and security will be a key topic at the summit, with a focus on emerging technology, AI, robotics, and quantum technologies.NATO has long held a target of 2% of gross domestic product for defense spending, a goal that many countries have not met.The war in Ukraine has been a wake-up call for many Western countries, prompting discussions about increased defense spending.The Indo-Pacific region presents a challenging and dynamic environment for businesses and governments due to its lack of clear-cut rules and multilateral groupings.The fusion of economic and national security is becoming increasingly relevant for investors and businesses, with a growing list of sectors falling under the umbrella of national security. Jonathan is an international affairs professional with expertise on security, defense, intelligence and geo-economic issues in the Indo-Pacific. He has held a variety of positions in the private and public sector. Currently, he is director and senior fellow of the Foreign Affairs, National Security and Defence program at the Ottawa-based Macdonald Laurier Institute. Miller is also a Senior Fellow with the Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA), Senior Fellow on East Asia for the Tokyo-based Asian Forum Japan and the Director and co-founder of the Council on International Policy. Previously, he was an international affairs fellow with the Council on Foreign Relations, based in Tokyo. Jonathan also held a fellowship on Japan with the Pacific Forum CSIS from 2013-16. At the Pacific Forum CSIS, he chaired a ten-member group focussed on Japan-Korea relations, in the context of the US “rebalance” to Asia. Other former appointments and roles include terms as a Distinguished Fellow with the Asia-Pacific Foundation of Canada, and Senior Fellow on East Asia for the New York-based EastWest Institute. Miller has held a number of other visiting fellowships on Asian security matters, including at JIIA and the National Institute of Defense Studies (Ministry of Defense - Japan). In addition, Miller previously spent nearly a decade in the public sector in Canada working on geopolitical and security issues pertaining to the Asia-Pacific. He regularly attends track 1.5 and track 2 dialogues across the Asia-Pacific region on security and intelligence issues, and is one of Canada's representatives on the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Eminent and Expert Persons Group. He also regularly provides advice and presents to universities, corporations, multilateral organizations and government on regional geopolitics. Jonathan is a regular contributor to several academic journals, magazines and newspapers on Asia-Pacific security issues including Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, the Nikkei Asian Review, the Japan Times and The Economist Intelligence Unit. He has also published widely in other outlets including the World Affairs Journal, Forbes, the Boston Globe the Globe and Mail, the National Post, the Mainichi Shimbun, the ASAN Forum, Jane’s Intelligence Review and Global Asia. Miller has been interviewed and quoted on Asian security and geopolitical issues across a wide range of media including the New York Times, the Washington Post, Reuters, CNN, CNBC, Bloomberg, the Wall Street Journal, the Globe and Mail, Le Monde, the Japan Times, Asahi Shimbun, the Voice of America and ABC news. EPISODE LINKS: Jonathan's Website: https://www.jberkshiremiller.com/about.html OUTLINE: 0:01:15 NATO Summit Showdown: The Future of Ukraine and China's Rising Influence 0:07:26 Future of Warfare: The Rise of AI, Robotics and the Crucial Role of Defense Spending 0:10:14 Global Defense Spending Race: Are the Promises Realistic or Just Political Rhetoric? 0:13:13 Untangling the Complexities: Navigating the Indo-Pacific's Unique Political Landscape 0:17:22 Redefining Trade: The Intricate Dance of Economic Security and National Interests in Asia 0:20:43 NATO's New Horizon: Navigating Traditional Conflict and Emerging Threats in the Cyber Age 0:23:06 Mastering Geopolitics for Business Success: Unraveling the Complexities of Global Supply Chains Check us out on https://www.cassandra.global/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cassandraglobal
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      28 min
    • #22 Mark Townsend – CBDC's are Inevitable! What's the Hedge?
      Jul 11 2023
      1. Blockchain and cryptocurrencies have become less popular, with AI now trending, but they remain important due to ongoing developments such as the launch of the first Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs).
      2. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has reported that 86% of central banks worldwide are either piloting or researching the use of CBDCs.
      3. China, the world's second-largest economy, is leading the way in CBDC development and is looking at a short-term horizon for the rollout of the digital yuan.
      4. There are concerns about privacy issues associated with CBDCs that have yet to be clarified by central banks globally.
      5. Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, which oversees around $9 trillion in assets under management, has recently shown support for cryptocurrencies, marking a significant shift in attitude.
      6. Cryptocurrencies could potentially provide financial services to the 1.4 billion people worldwide who are currently unbanked, according to World Bank figures.
      7. The introduction of CBDCs could potentially overhaul the corresponding banking system, posing a significant threat to the dominance of the dollar in the global financial system.
      8. The US government and regulators' attitudes towards cryptocurrencies are seen as a significant factor in the future of the market, with the ongoing case between the SEC and Ripple seen as a defining moment.
      9. China is making significant progress in rolling out its own CBDC, partly to internationalize its currency and reduce its dependence on the dollar.
      10. There are growing concerns about the transparency and implications for privacy and personal liberty associated with CBDCs, which have not been fully explained by governments.

       

      Mark T. Townsend is an award-winning political and financial journalist with extensive experience in emerging markets. He has reported on major meetings such as the World Bank/IMF, World Economic Forum, and Asian Development Bank. He has written for several publications including Financial Times, Reuters, and Nikkei Asia, among others. Townsend has worked as a business editor for an English language daily affiliated with the International New York Times and covered the Philippines for Financial Times. His specialties include Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Arab Spring, Dubai debt, cryptocurrencies, social media, media training, sovereign wealth funds, regional energy sector, OPEC, emerging markets, and political and reputation risk. He has advised investment banks, law firms, hedge funds, and private equity firms, and the CFA Institute previously voted him "Best Journalist" in their regional press awards. Townsend is a journalist and editor-at-large based in Dubai, UAE, and he works as a freelancer. He offers counsel to select clients on public affairs, content strategy, speech writing, thought leadership, media, and public relations.

       

      EPISODE LINKS:

      Mark's Linkedin - https://www.linkedin.com/in/markttownsend/?originalSubdomain=ae

      Mark's Twitter - https://twitter.com/markttownsend

      Mark's Website - https://authory.com/marktownsend

       

      OUTLINE:

      0:02:29 Digital Revolution: The Inevitable Rise of CBDCs and the Future of Cryptocurrencies

      0:10:28 SEC vs Ripple: The Landmark Case Shaping the Future of Cryptocurrency!

      0:17:24 China's CBDC Revolution: A Game Changer for Global Economy and Sanctions?

      0:22:35 Decoding the Crypto Controversy: Unmasking the US Government's Hawkish Stance on Digital Currencies

      0:29:53 COVID-19: The Power Grab of Governments and the Struggle of Activism

      0:33:11 Tick Tock on the Doomsday Clock: Unraveling Geopolitical Tensions in Asia and Russia's Crisis

       

      Check us out on https://www.cassandra.global/

      LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cassandraglobal

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      37 min
    • #21 Brai Odion-Esene – Every Company needs a sound Public Policy Strategy!
      Jul 10 2023
      1. Every business should have at least one person trained in policy, as it can significantly impact the business.
      2. Companies should not be reactive to policy but actively engage with key stakeholders and policymakers to shape policy.
      3. The Trump tariffs were a significant event that highlighted the importance of policy in business.
      4. A case study of a small manufacturing company with about 50 employees showed the impact of policy when tariffs made it more expensive to import key components from China to the US.
      5. Policymakers value input from businesses as they are the ones dealing with the effects of policies.
      6. Facebook's attempt to launch a cryptocurrency called Libra failed because they did not take the time to educate key policymakers and regulatory figures before announcing the initiative.
      7. Businesses should identify key stakeholders within the policy world and engage with them.
      8. The media and influential think tanks also play a significant role in shaping policy.
      9. CEOs and decision makers of small to medium-sized companies may not be aware of the importance of having a policy strategy.
      10. Larger companies have more resources and can see a more direct correlation between policies and their business, while smaller companies may question why they need to get involved.

       

      Brai Odion-Esene is the founder of SW4 Insights, an advisory firm that assists organizations in understanding and navigating the public policy landscape in Washington, D.C. He is a public policy advisor and public affairs strategist with expertise in framing complex issues for lay audiences and managing policy challenges and stakeholder engagement. Brai has over a decade of experience in Washington, D.C., where he has held various roles in public policy and journalism. In addition to his role at SW4 Insights, Brai is a contributor for Forbes Advisor and Emerging Market Media, where he shares his insights on policy-related topics. Previously, he served as a Senior Director at Hamilton Place Strategies, where he managed crisis management and strategic response efforts for clients, leveraging his experience as a journalist covering economics and public policy. Brai also worked at Market News International as a Washington Bureau Manager and Senior Washington Correspondent, covering the U.S. economy and White House economic policy. Brai Odion-Esene holds a Master of Business Administration (MBA) with a focus on global business from Georgetown University. He also obtained a Master of Science (MSc) in Management from Bayes Business School and a Bachelor of Arts (BA) in History from Duke University, where he also completed a certificate program in Markets and Management. He has been involved in various projects, including a consulting project with Samsung Welstory during his time at Georgetown University, where he provided business development and operational best practices for the company. Overall, Brai Odion-Esene has a strong background in public policy, public affairs, and strategic consulting, and has made significant contributions to the field through his work with SW4 Insights and other organizations. 

      EPISODE LINKS:

      Brai's Linkedin - https://www.linkedin.com/in/brai-odion-esene-0a5b3929/

      Brai's Twitter - https://twitter.com/braiesene

      SW4 Insights - https://sw4insights.com/

       

      OUTLINE:

      0:00:47 Unlocking Business Success: Why Ignoring Public Policy is a Big Mistake!

      0:02:12 Trade Wars and Tech Giants: How Policy Decisions Impact Small Businesses and Big Corporations

      0:06:08 Trade Wars and Tech Giants: How Policy Decisions Impact Small Businesses and Big Corporations

      0:09:52 AI Revolution: The Race Between Innovation and Regulation - How Will it Shape the Next Election?

      0:12:26 Mastering the Art of Advocacy: A Strategic Guide for Business Growth and Survival

       

      Check us out on https://www.cassandra.global/

      LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cassandraglobal

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      20 min

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