Today we have your 2026 predictions. We also cover the volatile 2025 year-end and share the extreme moves in precious metals and global geopolitical shocks as a case study for how investors should think: not politically or emotionally, but by watching price action and sector reactions. Low holiday liquidity amplified market swings, but that real signals came from how energy, materials, small caps, and international markets responded. We also think that despite macro unease, debt overhangs, and geopolitical reshuffling, the data still point to a broadly bullish environment, with diversification, attention to relative performance, and humility toward market signals being far more important than predictions.

We discuss...

• Precious metals led early-year performance, with platinum, silver, and gold behaving very differently despite being in the same sector.
• Investors should respond to global events by asking how markets interpret them, not by reacting to political narratives.
• The U.S. seizure of Venezuela's president is a geopolitical shock with significant implications for energy markets and global power dynamics.
• Oil service and infrastructure companies briefly surged as markets discounted future Venezuelan production, though sustainability remains uncertain.
• China is a key indirect loser due to rising effective energy costs and margin pressure in its low-margin industrial economy.
• Geopolitical moves are increasingly overt, signaling a reshuffling of the global financial and political order.
• Have caution because investor intuition is often wrong, and there are historical examples where markets moved opposite of popular expectations.
• Price action was repeatedly emphasized as the best indicator of what informed capital is actually doing.
• Early 2026 performance showed leadership from small caps, microcaps, and value stocks rather than mega-cap technology.
• Materials, industrials, and energy outperformed in the first week, while tech, utilities, and communications lagged.
• The "Magnificent 7" were noted as early underperformers, challenging the assumption that they always lead markets.
• Defense stocks strengthened following signals of increased U.S. military spending.
• Healthcare and other previously beaten-down sectors were flagged as areas worth watching.
• Be caution against passive overreliance on the S&P 500 due to concentration risk and historical periods of long underperformance.
• While risks are elevated, market signals remain broadly bullish and investors should stay adaptive rather than predictive.

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors

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For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/https://moneytreepodcast.com/2026-predictions-781

Arrash Yasavoli discusses how you should jump on investing in bitoin in 2026! Arrash's path from data engineering at LinkedIn into quantitative trading, crypto, and building Glitch, a SaaS platform that gives broader access to advanced trading strategies gives a unique perspective into possible 2026 investing plans. We also talk Bitcoin's role as a potential store of value, the divergence between Bitcoin and altcoins, the growing importance of real utility and valuation in crypto projects, the rise of ETFs and stablecoins as bridges to mainstream adoption, and more.

We discuss...

• Crypto's transition from a speculative and "scammy" perception toward broader legitimacy through regulation, ETFs, and institutional adoption.
• Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a store of value similar to gold rather than a scalable transactional currency.
• Bitcoin's fixed supply and resilience through multiple market cycles were highlighted as key drivers of long-term investor confidence.
• Bitcoin's historical growth rates are unlikely to persist, with future returns likely slowing and volatility remaining high.
• The growing divergence between Bitcoin performance and stagnant altcoins was identified as a sign of increasing market maturity.
• Many altcoins from earlier cycles failed due to hype-driven models that never delivered real value.
• The current crypto cycle was compared to the post–dot-com bust era, where focus shifts from excitement to sustainable business models.
• Regulatory clarity, including frameworks for crypto and stablecoins, was viewed as a major catalyst for continued adoption.
• Whether investors should trade or hold crypto, with emphasis on patience and fundamentals over speculation.
• Future crypto valuation models were described as moving toward revenue, profitability, and clear value propositions.
• Arrash outlined his work on BitTensor, a blockchain designed to create and trade real digital commodities.
• Crypto's long-term value lies in practical applications that quietly use blockchain under the hood rather than hype-driven narratives.

Today's Panelists:

• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
• Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance

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For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/investing-in-bitcoin-in-2026-arrash-yasavolian-780

There are a lot of year end surprises in store with the 2025 wrap up. The year has come to an end and we are here to discuss everything from year-end reflections and personal anecdotes to a broad market outlook. We focused on the recent surge and volatility in precious metals, especially silver, explaining how futures-market leverage and exchange rule changes (like margin requirement hikes) are used to cool speculative excess, why parabolic price moves are unhealthy, and why investors should be cautious in the near term even if long-term fundamentals remain bullish. We also talked government fraud, rising debt costs, aging demographics, deglobalization, and higher-for-longer rates, arguing that bad asset allocation now carries real risk and diversification with assets like precious metals still matter.

We discuss...

• We challenge simplistic economic cause-and-effect narratives, arguing that inflation, tariffs, and monetary policy outcomes are highly contextual and often misrepresented by official government data.
• Past periods of QE and low inflation were cited to illustrate how money printing can offset deflation rather than automatically cause inflation, reinforcing skepticism toward consensus forecasts.
• Large-scale government fraud is pervasive, rarely punished, and structurally embedded, with the prediction that no high-level figures will face consequences in ongoing public scandals.
• Precious metals, particularly silver, were a major focus due to extreme recent price volatility, including sharp multi-day gains and losses while most investors were disengaged over the holidays.
• The mechanics of futures markets were explained in detail, emphasizing how leverage works, why margin requirements matter, and how exchanges can legally change rules to stabilize markets.
• Recent increases in margin requirements for silver, gold, platinum, and palladium were highlighted as a deliberate attempt by exchanges to flush out speculative leverage and cool "animal spirits."
• Governments and exchanges can escalate interventions dramatically if needed, including forcing cash settlement or changing delivery rules, which would materially alter market dynamics.
• Banks' growing discomfort with holding U.S. Treasuries and their shift toward gold are a quiet but significant signal about long-term confidence in fiat systems.
• The contrast between gold (central-bank owned) and silver (primarily investor and industrial owned) explains differing market behaviors and intervention risks.
• The hosts argued that the era of "cheap mistakes" is over, meaning poor allocation decisions now result in permanent capital loss, not just missed opportunity.
• AI enthusiasm should be thought of skeptically as large language models are becoming commoditized quickly, lack durable moats, and resemble past tech bubbles.
• Be cautious, diversify, be skeptical of narratives, have respect for market structure, and prepare for a year where volatility exposes complacency.

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors

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For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/2025-wrap-up