As midweek speculation built of a US retreat from Iran, oil prices dropped back to $100 and the dollar index eased by 1%.

Markets turned their attention to president Donald Trump's address to the nation on Wednesday 1 April in expectation of a near-term ceasefire with the Iranians. Instead, they got a promise "to hit ​them extremely ​hard over the next two ‌to ⁠three weeks ... to bring ​them ​back ⁠to the Stone Ages where ​they belong".

Medley Advisors' policy analysts met the next morning for their weekly meeting to discuss this, market reactions, potential policy responses by the US and European central banks, Chinese economic resilience and the next move on tariffs and US withdrawal from NATO. The speakers are Andrew Besuyen on markets, Tim Jones on the ECB, Michael Redmond on the Federal Reserve, Brian Jackson on China and tariffs, and interjections from Pepijn Bergsen.

"Even though this time is a little bit different, the memories of 2022 are still pretty fresh in people's minds," says Andrew Besuyen. "There was this coordinated hiking cycle that got really exacerbated by high energy prices so I think markets are struggling to forget that. So, each time we see oil prices rise, yields just keep climbing".

But last week, he says, “we saw that relationship between oil and yields start to break down. We saw oil continue to climb … but yields started to come off". If Brent spends a few days above $110, this could be "the trigger point for market starting to think about the growth downsides".