In this episode of Fighting with Numbers, Rob Moreno breaks down UFC 325, featuring a smaller card with only six fights modeled. He discusses the importance of patience and discipline in betting, analyzes key matchups including Rafael Faziev vs. Mauricio Ruffy, Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint-Denis, and the main event between Alexander Volkanovski and Diego Lopes. The episode emphasizes the value of the betting model and the need for strategic decision-making in a selective betting environment.

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Chapters

00:00 Introduction to UFC 325 and Overview of the Card

01:24 Analyzing Rafael Fiziev vs Mauricio Ruffy

04:51 Dan Hooker vs Benoit Saint-Denis: A Fight for Violence

09:11 Main Event Breakdown: Volkanovski vs Lopes Rematch

In this episode of Fighting with Numbers, Rob Moreno dives into UFC 324, analyzing key matchups including Alex Perez vs. Charles Johnson, Natalia Silva vs. Rose Namajunas, Sean O'Malley vs. Song Yadong, and the main event featuring Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett. Utilizing a predictive model, Rob discusses the odds, statistics, and insights that guide his betting strategies, emphasizing the importance of data-driven decision-making in sports betting.

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And make sure to check out the Substack for even more detailed notes and a full UFC model prediction card.

FightNumbers.substack.com

Chapters

00:00 Introduction to UFC 324 and the Podcast

03:10 Fight Breakdown: Alex Perez vs. Charles Johnson

05:52 Fight Breakdown: Natalia Silva vs. Rose Namajunis

08:36 Co-Main Event: Sean O'Malley vs. Song Yedong

12:22 Main Event: Justin Gaethje vs. Patty Pimlet

18:42 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

It’s the final UFC event of the year, and we’re closing 2025 with a deep dive into UFC Vegas 112: Brandon Royval vs Manel Kape.

After a 6-4 week, the model sits at 176-101-15 (63.54%), locking in a profitable season no matter what happens on Saturday.

In this episode, we break down a few key fights with full data-driven analysis, matchup insights, betting angles, and projected outcomes.

Plus: a look back at the 2025 season, the evolution of the model, and what’s coming in 2026.

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🐦 Twitter: @TheRobbeo

📸 Instagram: @TheRobbeo

📱 TikTok: @TheRobbeo

📝 Substack: FightNumbers.substack.com

🎙️ Catch me on VSiN’s First Strike throughout the year.