In this episode of Fighting with Numbers, Rob Moreno breaks down UFC 325, featuring a smaller card with only six fights modeled. He discusses the importance of patience and discipline in betting, analyzes key matchups including Rafael Faziev vs. Mauricio Ruffy, Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint-Denis, and the main event between Alexander Volkanovski and Diego Lopes. The episode emphasizes the value of the betting model and the need for strategic decision-making in a selective betting environment.

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Chapters

00:00 Introduction to UFC 325 and Overview of the Card

01:24 Analyzing Rafael Fiziev vs Mauricio Ruffy

04:51 Dan Hooker vs Benoit Saint-Denis: A Fight for Violence

09:11 Main Event Breakdown: Volkanovski vs Lopes Rematch

In this episode of Fighting with Numbers, Rob Moreno dives into UFC 324, analyzing key matchups including Alex Perez vs. Charles Johnson, Natalia Silva vs. Rose Namajunas, Sean O'Malley vs. Song Yadong, and the main event featuring Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett. Utilizing a predictive model, Rob discusses the odds, statistics, and insights that guide his betting strategies, emphasizing the importance of data-driven decision-making in sports betting.

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And make sure to check out the Substack for even more detailed notes and a full UFC model prediction card.

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Chapters

00:00 Introduction to UFC 324 and the Podcast

03:10 Fight Breakdown: Alex Perez vs. Charles Johnson

05:52 Fight Breakdown: Natalia Silva vs. Rose Namajunis

08:36 Co-Main Event: Sean O'Malley vs. Song Yedong

12:22 Main Event: Justin Gaethje vs. Patty Pimlet

18:42 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

It’s the final UFC event of the year, and we’re closing 2025 with a deep dive into UFC Vegas 112: Brandon Royval vs Manel Kape.

After a 6-4 week, the model sits at 176-101-15 (63.54%), locking in a profitable season no matter what happens on Saturday.

In this episode, we break down a few key fights with full data-driven analysis, matchup insights, betting angles, and projected outcomes.

Plus: a look back at the 2025 season, the evolution of the model, and what’s coming in 2026.

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📸 Instagram: @TheRobbeo

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📝 Substack: FightNumbers.substack.com

🎙️ Catch me on VSiN’s First Strike throughout the year.

This week on Fighting with Numbers, the UFC heads to Baku, Azerbaijan for a more compact data card headlined by Jamahal Hill vs Khalil Rountree Jr. While the slate is smaller for us, the model still found spots worth watching — including a few potential value plays buried deeper on the lineup. We’re keeping it tight and focused this week: just the fights that matter, the stats that stand out, and the bets that make sense.

Time Stamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:04 - Recap

01:46 - This Week: UFC Baku

03:12 - Ismail Naurdiev vs Jun Yong Park

09:03 - Rafael Fiziev vs Ignacio Bahamondes

18:10 - Jamaal Hill vs Khalil Rountree Jr

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Podcast notes:

Music by Elevate Audio:

http://elevate-audio.com

The UFC closes out the PPV era with a monster card at UFC 323, live from T-Mobile Arena — and we’re breaking down all the numbers that matter. Two championship fights headline the final mega-event of 2025: Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van for the flyweight belt, and Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan 2 for the bantamweight championship. With only two events left in the year and a long six-week offseason ahead, this is a crucial week for bettors, pick’em players, and anyone chasing season-long edges.

This episode features full analytical breakdowns from El Modelo, as the system enters the week 170-97-13 (63.67%). We dig into a few fun fights to wager on — including striking profiles, xR% advantages, grappling efficiency, finishing upside, and all the hidden stats that shape fight outcomes.

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Substack newsletter: FightNumbers.substack.com

Catch me on VSiN’s First Strike every Wednesday for more betting breakdowns.

Available everywhere you get your podcasts and on YouTube.

One more card left after this — let’s finish the year strong.

The UFC heads to Abu Dhabi for a massive double-title event at UFC 321: Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane, and Fighting With Numbers is breaking it all down!

Rob Moreno (@TheRobbeo) dives deep into the data and betting angles across five key matchups — from Umar Nurmagomedov’s bounce-back fight to the vacant strawweight title clash between Mackenzie Dern and Virna Jandiroba. Plus, full analysis on Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane as the heavyweight division looks to crown its true king.

📊 Model Record: 4-5 last week | 64.35% overall on the year

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• Newsletter: FightNumbers.Substack.com

• Also catch Rob every week on the First Strike Podcast from VSiN with Dave Ross

If you enjoy the episode, hit like, subscribe, and drop a comment with your favorite bet of the week — let’s keep building this community of data-driven fight nerds!

Noche UFC is here, headlined by Diego Lopes vs Jean Silva. I break down the key matchups, digs into the stats, and set the stage for a stacked night of fights. From Tatiana Suarez’s return, a clash of styles, every angle gets covered. Tune in for sharp insights, model talk, and a few storylines you won’t want to miss.

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http://FightNumbers.substack.com

Time Stamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:22 - Tatiana Suarez vs Amanda Lemos

06:11 - Claudio Puelles vs Joaquim Silva

08:10 - Kelvin Gastelum vs Dustin Stoltzfus

10:40 - Diego Lopes vs Jean Silva

Podcast notes:

Music by Elevate Audio:

http://elevate-audio.com

This week on Fighting with Numbers, it’s UFC 318 — and the stakes couldn’t be higher. Max Holloway and Dustin Poirier meet for the third time, this one for the BMF Title in what’s also Poirier’s retirement fight. The model’s dialed in on this matchup, plus some sneaky value elsewhere on the card. Let’s break down the trilogy, the title, and where the numbers are pointing for UFC 318.

Time Stamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:10 - Marvin Vettori vs Brendan Allen

05:11 - Kyler Phillips vs Vinicius Oliveira

09:36 - Paulo Costa vs Roman Kopylov

16:10 - Max Holloway vs Dustin Poirier

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http://instagram.com/TheRobbeo

http://robbeo.substack.com

Podcast notes:

Music by Elevate Audio:

http://elevate-audio.com