In this episode of our new show The 100 Year Thinkers, Chris Mayer and Robert Hagstrom explore how the words investors use quietly shape the decisions they make — often in destructive ways. From labels like “cheap,” “expensive,” and “compounder” to debates about valuation, concentration, and AI, the conversation digs into how language collapses uncertainty into false certainty. Drawing on general semantics, mental models, and decades of investing experience, they explain why confusing maps for reality leads investors astray — and how clearer thinking can change how you see markets, risk, and long-term returns.

Topics discussed include:

• Why paying 30x earnings can be rational when return on invested capital stays high

• How the word “is” smuggles hidden assumptions into investment decisions

• The difference between a company being a compounder and having compounded in the past

• Why valuation debates are really disagreements about time horizon

• The “map vs. territory” problem in financial statements and market data

• Market concentration, index construction, and why benchmarks can mislead investors

• How language shapes narratives around value, growth, and risk

• AI investing, capital allocation, and separating durable businesses from hype

• Why many binary true-or-false questions are traps for investors

• How long-term investors think in decades, not quarters

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with TG Macro founder Tony Greer to explore why markets are increasingly signaling a loss of faith in institutions and what that means for investors heading into 2026. Tony lays out a framework that connects inflation, central bank credibility, political risk, global regime change, and shifting consumer behavior into a coherent macro narrative. From gold and precious metals to miners, commodities, cyclicals, and the evolving role of AI, this conversation bridges big-picture macro themes with actionable market insights for both traders and long-term investors.

Topics covered:
• Why gold is rallying as trust in institutions erodes
• Central banks, inflation, and the long-term consequences of monetary policy
• The shift from a 60-40 portfolio to alternatives and real assets
• Precious metals versus technology leadership in a changing market regime
• Gold miners, industrial miners, and uranium as core themes
• Consumer inflation, food prices, and purchasing power on Main Street
• Big Food, Big Pharma, and the broader trust breakdown
• Legal, political, and geopolitical risks shaping investor behavior
• The end of globalization and the rise of domestic supply chains
• Copper, energy, and natural resources in an economic recovery
• AI, semiconductors, and signs of a leadership transition
• Prediction markets and new tools for understanding market expectations
• Financials, airlines, and overlooked cyclical opportunities
• How to think about risk management when macro regimes change

Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction and the collapse of trust in institutions
02:00 Why gold is responding to credibility loss, not fear
05:00 Central banks, inflation, and monetary excess
08:20 Purchasing power and real-world inflation pressures
11:00 Big Food, Big Pharma, and consumer awareness
14:00 Healthcare, fraud, and institutional breakdown
16:30 Legal system risk and political credibility
18:30 Global factors, sanctions, and the shift away from globalization
21:00 Precious metals, miners, and natural resource leadership
25:00 The three mining themes driving performance
29:00 Stocks and gold rising together in a new regime
32:00 Gold market structure and long-term trend analysis
36:00 Japan, global bond markets, and gold demand
39:00 Investing versus trading precious metals
43:00 Copper, supply chains, and tech partnerships
47:00 AI leadership, capital rotation, and market risk
51:00 Financials, airlines, and cyclical signals
57:30 What would break the thesis and risk management signals

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Jan van Eck, CEO of VanEck, to discuss how long-term macro forces are shaping markets and investment opportunities. Jan shares how his firm thinks about government spending, monetary policy, and technology, why he believes investors have more visibility than they realize heading into 2026, and how trends like artificial intelligence, gold, and global asset allocation could redefine portfolios over the next decade and beyond.

Topics covered in this episode include

• How VanEck uses fiscal policy, monetary policy, and technology as core macro pillars

• Why declining fiscal deficits may reduce long-term stress on markets

• The case for a less interventionist Federal Reserve and what it means for investors

• Why thinking in decades, not quarters, can lead to higher conviction investing

• Artificial intelligence as a transformative economic force and its impact on semiconductors, energy, and productivity

• The AI capex buildout, compute shortages, and lessons from past infrastructure booms

• Gold’s resurgence as a global store of value in a multipolar world

• The difference between owning physical gold and gold mining stocks

• Risks and opportunities in private credit and business development companies

• Why illiquid assets may not belong in daily liquidity vehicles like ETFs

• India’s long-term growth potential and implications for global portfolios

• How family ownership influences VanEck’s long-term investment approach

• Behavioral mistakes investors make and why long-term charts matter

• Lessons Jan would teach the average investor based on decades of market experience

Timestamps
00:00 Introduction and VanEck’s macro framework
02:25 Translating macro views into product development
04:34 2026 outlook and why visibility may mean risk on
06:00 Fiscal deficits, interest rates, and market stress
07:00 The future of Federal Reserve intervention
10:48 Long-term investing versus short-term predictions
14:00 India, global growth, and asset allocation
19:00 Artificial intelligence, compute demand, and semiconductors
24:00 AI, jobs, and economic impact
29:00 AI capex, market concentration, and historical analogies
38:31 Private credit risks and liquidity considerations
40:35 Illiquid assets and ETFs
42:56 Gold, global currencies, and long-term trends
47:26 Gold miners versus physical gold
52:14 Contrarian opportunities and underloved markets
52:47 Advantages of a family-owned investment firm
56:06 Tokenization, blockchain, and market structure
59:45 Investor psychology and long-term charts
01:02:05 Lessons for the average investor