Dancing With The Odds | Season 4, Episode 7

Hosts: Dennis Tresca, Aaron Patterson, Shaun Thompson

Two unbeatens collide in Lincoln, Notre Dame may have to do all the scoring by themselves, and Lamar Jackson’s ankle decides the Sunday bet. The dads check the bankroll after a winning week, Aaron officially earns the title of Weatherman with wind gusts, rain chances, and stadium orientations, and Shaun brings a Nebraska stat that Husker fans won’t want to hear. Plus a soggy Buckets of Cash, a backup quarterback in elite company, and a disclaimer about the dinosaur air you’re breathing right now.

In This Episode

• Postseason Baseball: A Cubs fan’s case for the Brewers, the Rays sweep the Yankees, and karma for a decades-old Jeter home run
• The Ledger: A total cleared by the slimmest possible margin, a London touchdown called back, and an offense that forgot to show up
• The Weatherman: Aaron breaks down wind, rain, and which direction the field faces in an SEC matchup
• Indiana at Nebraska: Big Noon Kickoff comes to Lincoln, Shaun’s history of the Huskers with national pregame shows in town, and the over/under on the balloon release
• Stanford at Notre Dame: The one game that fit the model perfectly, and the model game the dads passed on
• Buckets of Cash: A college game in a downpour, a Brewers series call, and a Belgian soccer carryover
• Ravens at Falcons: Lamar’s status, an injury report breakdown, and the backup QB stat that puts Tyler Huntley alongside Nick Foles and Case Keenum
• Fading Miami: Bengals receiver injuries and a Dolphins offense running on fumes
• The Disclaimer: You are an electrified meat computer, and reality is non-refundable

Timestamps

TimeSegment

00:00

Cold Open

00:32

Postseason Baseball Talk

01:33

Bankroll Check

01:59

The Ledger: Last Week’s Recap

03:27

Tracked Slate: College Picks

03:36

South Carolina at Florida

06:33

Indiana at Nebraska

08:09

Nebraska and the National Pregame Shows

11:29

Stanford at Notre Dame

12:52

Model Tracker Update

13:51

The Plug

14:21

Buckets of Cash

16:40

Tracked Slate: Ravens at Falcons

20:57

Tracked Slate: Bengals vs. Dolphins

23:21

Slate Recap

23:49

The Disclaimer

25:01

The Out

Track Everything

• Road to $10K: https://raddadnetwork.com/shows/dancing-with-the-odds/road-to-10k
• Pick of the Day: https://raddadnetwork.com/shows/dancing-with-the-odds/pick-of-the-day

Next Week

The dads find out if this is finally the week they go perfect, whether the Lincoln balloons ever left anyone’s hand, and if the Weatherman’s forecasts held up.

👍 Like, subscribe, and drop a comment with your guess on when the Nebraska balloons fly. We’ve been stuck at 60 subscribers for weeks. Help us hit 100 on YouTube!

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Produced by the Rad Dad Network

Theme song by Alex Vyshnevskyi

Disclaimer: Dancing With The Odds is for entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this episode is financial or betting advice. Please gamble responsibly, only wager what you can afford to lose, and know the laws in your state. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Mentioned in this episode:

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Dancing With The Odds | Season 4, Episode 6

Hosts: Dennis Tresca, Aaron Patterson, Shaun Thompson

Six episodes in and the bankroll is finally pointing the right way, NFL included. The dance dads set a new milestone for the Road to $10K, and with conference play killing off the big-spread mismatches, Shaun takes his blowout model back to the lab and comes out with a new angle for two-to-three touchdown favorites. Aaron makes the case for why international games get sloppy, the weather model flags its first under of the college season, and the Buckets of Cash segment goes global, all the way to the Belgian Pro League.

• The Ledger: Where the bankroll stands after a winning week, and why the NFL side finally paid out
• A New Milestone: The crew sets a $500 target for Thanksgiving and talks about raising stakes as the bankroll grows
• Model Check-In: How Shaun's blowout model, Aaron's weather model, and Dennis's road dog angle are actually performing on the model tracker
• Rebuilding for Conference Play: Shaun used AI to dig into early-season data and found a new spread range worth watching
• The Tracked Slate: Four college bets and one lone NFL play, including the first college under of the season
• The London Angle: Aaron explains why overseas games tend to look out of sync, plus some Commanders quarterback chatter
• Buckets of Cash: A rough season for the side bets, followed by MLB playoffs, the Battle of the Bays, a Mountain West shootout, and Belgian soccer
• The Disclaimer: Aaron's most existential one yet, and the Earth apparently took it personally

TimeSegment

00:00

Welcome to Season 4, Episode 6

01:21

The Ledger: bankroll and season record

02:23

The $500 by Thanksgiving milestone

03:16

Model check-in and the new conference play angle

07:49

Weather model and road dog updates

08:33

The Plug: socials, YouTube, and daily pick email alerts

09:30

Tracked Slate: college football

16:55

Tracked Slate: the lone NFL bet in London

21:21

A sneak peek at next week's international game

22:10

Buckets of Cash

29:18

RFK Pick of the Week

29:44

Aaron's disclaimer

30:32

The Out

Follow every bet and every pick on the Rad Dad Network site:

• Road to $10K: https://raddadnetwork.com/shows/dancing-with-the-odds/road-to-10k
• Pick of the Day: https://raddadnetwork.com/shows/dancing-with-the-odds/pick-of-the-day (now with email alerts, so you'll know the second a new pick goes up)

Another international game is on the schedule, and the guys already have their eye on it. Plus the first real test of Shaun's new spread model as conference play heats up, and another step toward $500 by Thanksgiving.

Like, subscribe, and drop a comment with your best bet of the week. We're still chasing 100 YouTube subscribers, so every one counts.

Website: https://raddadnetwork.com/ Online store: https://rad-dad-network.printify.me/

Produced by the Rad Dad Network Theme song by Alex Vyshnevskyi

Disclaimer: Dancing With The Odds is for entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this episode is financial advice or a guarantee of any outcome. All wagers discussed are our own opinions and analysis. Please gamble responsibly, only bet what you can afford to lose, and check the laws in your state. You must be 21+ to wager. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Mentioned in this episode:

Track Every Bet at Rad Dad Network

See exactly how the season is going. The Road to $10K page tracks the bankroll in real time, and the Pick of the Day page breaks down each host's individual record so you know who to trust and who to fade. Visit raddadnetwork.com.

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Dancing With The Odds | Season 4, Episode 5

Hosts: Dennis Tresca, Aaron Patterson, Shaun Thompson

Five episodes in, which officially matches all of Season 3. Shaun is off saving lives this week (he's fine, everyone), so Dennis and Aaron hold down the fort with a slate Shaun locked in from the group chat. The dads check in on the model tracker, Aaron unveils a brand new NFL angle built on ten seasons of weather data, and the college side of the slate introduces a school nobody at the table knew existed. Plus a surprise bet nobody remembers agreeing to and a disclaimer that will make you rethink who is really in charge of your body.

• The Model Tracker: Shaun's college blowout model keeps cashing while the NFL angles struggle to find their footing
• Aaron's Wind Model: Why rain barely matters, what wind actually does to NFL totals, and the game that almost counted
• The Ledger: A Michigan scare, a Missouri-Troy game that fell off a cliff at halftime, and a Troy leash that keeps getting shorter
• NFL Heartbreak: An injury, a fourth-down call that backfired, and a Philly offense that didn't show up until it hurt
• The Tracked Slate: Three college overs straight from the model and two NFL unders, including the first game to fit the wind angle
• Meet the Sharks: The dads discover Long Island University and immediately consider switching allegiances
• The Chiefs Stat: Aaron digs up a Mahomes-era road record that will surprise you
• Surprise Bet: Shaun's bet slip has one more game on it than anyone expected
• Buckets of Cash: An NFC West total and a Seahawks team that looks like champions again
• The Disclaimer: You are officially outnumbered in your own skin

TimeSegment

00:00

Cold Open

01:18

Bankroll Check

02:48

Model Tracker Update

04:02

Aaron's NFL Wind Model

07:08

The Plug

07:38

The Ledger: College Recap

10:23

The Ledger: NFL Recap

13:17

Tracked Slate: College Picks

18:02

Tracked Slate: NFL Picks

24:55

Locked In and the Surprise Sixth Bet

27:45

Buckets of Cash

29:31

RFK Pick of the Week (On Hold)

29:51

The Disclaimer

30:43

The Out

• Road to $10K: https://raddadnetwork.com/shows/dancing-with-the-odds/road-to-10k
• Pick of the Day: https://raddadnetwork.com/shows/dancing-with-the-odds/pick-of-the-day

Shaun returns with the RFK Pick of the Week, the wind model gets its first official test, and the dads find out whether the Long Island Sharks are real or a shared hallucination.

👍 Like, subscribe, and drop a comment if you go to Long Island University and can confirm the sharks exist. Help us hit 100 subscribers on YouTube!

🌐 https://raddadnetwork.com/

🛒 Online store: https://rad-dad-network.printify.me/

Produced by the Rad Dad Network

Theme song by Alex Vyshnevskyi

Disclaimer: Dancing With The Odds is for entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this episode is financial or betting advice. Please gamble responsibly, only wager what you can afford to lose, and know the laws in your state. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Mentioned in this episode:

Track Every Bet at Rad Dad Network

See exactly how the season is going. The Road to $10K page tracks the bankroll in real time, and the Pick of the Day page breaks down each host's individual record so you know who to trust and who to fade. Visit raddadnetwork.com.

Dancing With The Odds | Season 4, Episode 4

Hosts: Dennis Tresca, Aaron Patterson, Shaun Thompson

Four episodes in and the bankroll is still breathing, which already beats last season. The dads look back at a week of near misses: a field goal that never got kicked, an international game that went sideways, and a four-turnover loss that was closer than the score says. Then Shaun explains the college football model driving the slate, Dennis reveals the NFL angle he dug out of twelve seasons of data, and the RFK Pick of the Week goes back to its roots in a league none of them can pronounce.

IN THIS EPISODE

🏈 The Ledger: The easiest cash of the weekend came from the game nobody wanted to bet, and one Notre Dame coaching decision still stings

✈️ Rams vs. 49ers Overseas: Fluke or warning sign? Why travel and time zones may have mattered more than talent

📉 Bucs vs. Bengals Autopsy: How a team that never punted still found a way to lose, and why the guys still like the bet

📊 Shaun's College Model: A full walkthrough of the heavy-favorite formula behind this week's three college picks

🐕 Dennis's NFL Edge: Twelve seasons of data, one angle that beats the juice, and a mix-up that needed some untangling

🎯 The Tracked Slate: Three college games and two NFL games, including a division rivalry and a team in freefall

💰 Buckets of Cash: A Bears offense chasing records, a defense-optional NFC South matchup, and a record the guys are proud of

🇧🇪 RFK Pick of the Week: Shaun consults the machine and heads straight to Belgium

🎙️ The Out: Daily bet updates, an MLB hot streak, and a free money tip for Fliff users

TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Cold Open

0:58 The Plug

1:40 The Ledger: College Recap

3:28 Rams vs. 49ers International Game

5:29 Bucs vs. Bengals Breakdown

6:42 Side Bets and Basketball Season Ahead

8:31 Shaun's College Football Model and Picks

14:04 Dennis's NFL Road Dog Edge

17:37 NFL Tracked Picks

22:20 Buckets of Cash

29:04 RFK Pick of the Week

30:41 The Disclaimer

31:16 The Out

TRACK EVERYTHING

Road to $10K: https://raddadnetwork.com/shows/dancing-with-the-odds/road-to-10k

Pick of the Day: https://raddadnetwork.com/shows/dancing-with-the-odds/pick-of-the-day

NEXT WEEK

The verdict on the Belgian experiment, Dennis's breakdown of whether Thursday night games change the NFL angle, and a new slate as the big-spread college matchups start to dry up.

👍 Like, subscribe, and drop a comment with the bet you think we're getting wrong.

🌐 https://raddadnetwork.com/

🛒 Online store: https://rad-dad-network.printify.me/

Produced by the Rad Dad Network

Theme song by Alex Vyshnevsky

DISCLAIMER: Dancing With The Odds is for entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this episode is financial or betting advice. Please gamble responsibly, only wager what you can afford to lose, and know the laws in your state. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Mentioned in this episode:

Track Every Bet at Rad Dad Network

See exactly how the season is going. The Road to $10K page tracks the bankroll in real time, and the Pick of the Day page breaks down each host's individual record so you know who to trust and who to fade. Visit raddadnetwork.com.

Shaun is off saving lives on the night shift, so Dennis and Aaron hold down the fort for the first full slate of Season 4. Week 1 went better than anyone had a right to expect, the NFL is officially back, and the guys lock in three college bets and two NFL plays, one of them built on Dennis's own dig through more than a decade of NFL data. Shaun's picks came in through the group chat, so he is here in spirit.

Goal: $10,000. Let's dance.

In This Episode

• The Ledger. A winning first week and a bankroll headed in the right direction. The guys are already calculating how fast they hit ten grand at this rate. (Very fast. Totally sustainable. No notes.)
• Dennis falls on his sword. One Week 1 bet was so sloppy it gets its own confession, plus a reaction to a certain Colorado head coach declaring his team "back" after one game.
• The sweat and the blowout. A first half that had everyone knocking on wood, a group chat that would not stop jinxing it, and a Sun Devils game so lopsided the opposing coach asked to shorten the fourth quarter.
• Does the rule still work? Shaun's Week 1 strategy gets its first report card, and the guys admit these kinds of matchups are about to get a lot harder to find.
• Three college bets. One where the guys stray from the rule on pure gut feel, one local game nobody is excited about, and one opponent coming off a loss to a school the hosts are not fully convinced exists. Tarleton State alumni, please write in.
• The NFL is back. A Thursday opener that cost a lot of fantasy managers, and a division rivalry shipped all the way to Australia.
• Dennis does the homework. Following Shaun's lead, Dennis runs the numbers on more than 3,000 NFL games and finds an angle with a real edge. It drives one of this week's tracked NFL bets.
• Buckets of Cash. One host doubles down on a game already in the slate and goes hunting for an alt line. The other lifts a play straight from his survivor pool and has some choice words for an entire franchise.
• RFK Pick of the Week. The segment lives on because Shaun refused to let it die. Both hosts go upset hunting, and one of them still cannot call a team by its current city.

Track Everything

• Road to $10K | raddadnetwork.com/shows/dancing-with-the-odds/road-to-10k
• Pick of the Day | raddadnetwork.com/shows/dancing-with-the-odds/pick-of-the-day

Conference play starts opening up, which means fewer of the lopsided matchups the rule has been feeding on. The guys have to prove the edge is real when the easy spots dry up.

Don't forget to like, subscribe, and leave a comment to let us know your thoughts on the episode!

https://raddadnetwork.com/

Online store: https://rad-dad-network.printify.me/

Produced by the Rad Dad NetworkTheme song by Alex Vyshnevskyi

Disclaimer: This podcast is for entertainment purposes only. The information provided is not intended as a substitute for professional advice. The hosts and guests are not financial advisors or sports betting experts. Any decisions made based on the information in this podcast are solely at your own risk. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Next Week

The record still says 0-0, the bankroll still says $150, and this is the last episode either of those things will be true. The guys run the full NFL futures board, all eight divisions plus both conferences and the Super Bowl, then reveal the first three tracked bets of Season 4. Real money, real book, real chance to look foolish by Sunday night.

Bankroll: $150. Goal: $10,000. Let's dance.

• The Ledger. Undefeated, unbeaten, untested. Zero bets placed, zero dollars lost, and the guys admit this is probably the best the record will look all year.
• A new daily bet. Shaun pitches a small daily play to keep the bankroll working during the week instead of sitting idle until Saturday. Details on where to find those are below.
• NFL futures, all eight divisions. Two divisions where all three hosts land on the same team, two where nobody agrees, and one long-shot swing that made the other two say "what the" out loud.
• The divisions nobody wants. One gets called the worst in football, another gets called the hardest, and both get the same prediction: everybody beats up on everybody.
• Homer picks, admitted. At least two hosts take a team they have no business taking, and one takes a team he openly hopes he is wrong about.
• Conference champs and the Super Bowl. The least suspenseful segment in show history. All three hosts on the same NFC team, and Dennis says so himself.
• Shaun does the homework. A ten-season data dive into massive Week 1 spreads and what actually happens with the total when a power program schedules a body bag game. The result is a strategy, and it drives one of this week's tracked bets.
• Three bets, locked and placed. All on DraftKings, agreed in the group chat before the record button, and one of them settles Thursday night before the rest of the slate even kicks off.
• Buckets of Cash. A neutral-site game that is not remotely neutral, a big number nobody wants to lay, and one host doubling down on a play he already talked himself out of.
• RFK Pick of the Week. The segment almost gets killed on air for the crime of the hosts doing too much actual research. It survives. Barely. Aliens are involved.

• Road to $10K | raddadnetwork.com/shows/dancing-with-the-odds/road-to-10k

Track Everything

• Road to $10K | raddadnetwork.com/shows/dancing-with-the-odds/road-to-10k
• Pick of the Day | raddadnetwork.com/shows/dancing-with-the-odds/pick-of-the-day

NFL Week 1 is finally here. The slate grows to five tracked bets, three college and two NFL, and the guys get their first look at whether any of this is working.

Don't forget to like, subscribe, and leave a comment to let us know your thoughts on the episode!

https://raddadnetwork.com/

Online store: https://rad-dad-network.printify.me/

Produced by the Rad Dad NetworkTheme song by Alex Vyshnevskyi

Disclaimer: This podcast is for entertainment purposes only. The information provided is not intended as a substitute for professional advice. The hosts and guests are not financial advisors or sports betting experts. Any decisions made based on the information in this podcast are solely at your own risk. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Next Week

Dancing With The Odds | Season 4, Episode 1Hosts: Dennis Tresca, Aaron Patterson, Shaun Thompson

Season 4 is here and the dance dads are back with a clean slate — new format, new website, new bankroll, and a whole lot of college football futures. No tracked bets this week (Week 0 was, in Shaun's words, awful), so instead the guys lay out how the season is going to run and put their money where their mouths are on conference champs, the national title, and one very familiar Nebraska win total.

Fund starts at $150. Goal is $10,000. Let's dance.

• Five tracked bets every week — three college, two NFL. Locked in before the record button ever gets hit.
• DraftKings is the official book of Season 4. One book, consistent numbers, no cherry-picking after the fact.
• $50 from each host = a $150 starting bankroll, chasing $10K.
• No parlays. Lesson learned. Straight bets only.
• Mid-season review coming, so everyone can talk their share of trash.
• Everything tracked live at raddadnetwork.com — no more Substack, we own the whole thing now.

Conference championship futures. All four of the big ones — ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC — and three hosts who mostly refuse to take the favorite. Debates over whether the only thing that ever stops Miami is Miami, whether money can simply buy a Big 12 title, and how anyone is supposed to pick a Big Ten or SEC champ when those schedules eat their own.

National championship picks. Two hosts land on the same team. One goes hunting for a much bigger number.

Season buckets of cash. The Nebraska win total. All three hosts are already on the same side, and Shaun walks the schedule game by game to explain why.

RFK Pick of the Year. No research. Poor ideas. Pure bullshit. Shaun's segment from last season gets promoted to a full-season edition, and one host completely fails the assignment by doing too much homework.

Want the actual numbers? Every tracked bet lands on the Road to $10K page once the season starts.

• Road to $10K — raddadnetwork.com/shows/dancing-with-the-odds/road-to-10k
• Pick of the Day — raddadnetwork.com/shows/dancing-with-the-odds/pick-of-the-day

College football Week 1. Three tracked bets, real money on the line for the first time this season, plus NFL futures — conference champs and the rest of the board.

Don't forget to like, subscribe, and leave a comment to let us know your thoughts on the episode!

https://raddadnetwork.com/

Online store: https://rad-dad-network.printify.me/

Produced by the Rad Dad NetworkTheme song by Alex Vyshnevskyi

Disclaimer: This podcast is for entertainment purposes only. The information provided is not intended as a substitute for professional advice. The hosts and guests are not financial advisors or sports betting experts. Any decisions made based on the information in this podcast are solely at your own risk. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

What's New in Season 4In This EpisodeTimestamps00:33Welcome to Season 402:37Off-season check-in: marathons, relays, and a kid in college07:04Follow, subscribe, and the 100-subscriber dance promise09:19The new raddadnetwork.com — Road to $10K and Pick of the Day12:47Why there are no tracked bets for Week 013:16The new Season 4 format, explained15:35ACC futures18:42Big 12 futures23:25Big Ten futures28:35SEC futures35:16National championship picks39:18Season buckets of cash: Nebraska43:56RFK Pick of the Year48:12What we learned in the off-season53:06Wrap and what's coming next weekTrack EverythingNext Week

This week on Dancing With The Odds, we're ready to get our heads in the game and turn this season around. Dennis and Sean are holding down the fort for a sick Aaron, but don't worry, they still have his picks ready to go. After a tough 2-3 weekend, our hosts recap some wild games, including the Giants-Cowboys shootout that went "completely bat shit crazy".Then, they dive into their college and NFL picks for the week, including a three-leg parlay and a "Buckets of Cash" bet. The guys are feeling good about their choices and, as always, they deliver their hilariously insightful "RFK Pick of the Week" is introduced! Make sure you're subscribed on YouTube to help us reach our goal of 100 subscribers so we can finally perform that celebratory dance. Also, check out our online store to grab some high-quality gear and support the show.Don't forget to like, subscribe, and leave a comment to let us know your thoughts on the episode! Subscribe to our newsletter @ https://raddadnetwork.com/ Online store: https://rad-dad-network.printify.me/Produced by the Rad Dad Network Theme song by Alex VyshnevskyiDisclaimer: This podcast is for entertainment purposes only. The information provided is not intended as a substitute for professional advice. The hosts and guests are not financial advisors or experts in sports betting. Any decisions made based on the information in this podcast are solely at your own risk. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.