Global Wheat Market Weekly Summary

• Russian wheat exports from Krasnodar territory ports rose 56% in 2026, reaching 7,800,000 tons, with Egypt and Turkey the primary buyers. Egypt alone accounted for 2,800,000 tons of that volume. The export surge followed the conclusion of a zero-duty export period, with a duty of 515.6 rubles per ton now reinstated. Russia's freight cost advantage to Middle Eastern and African markets remains a structural competitive strength. However, a narrowing price gap between Russian and European wheat could erode that advantage over time, particularly if global freight costs continue to rise.
• Ethiopia's wheat production forecast for 2026/27 stands at 7,000,000 tons, an improvement on prior levels but still materially short of the country's 8,200,000 ton consumption requirement. As a result, Ethiopia is projected to import 1,400,000 tons, sourced predominantly from the Black Sea region. The government is investing in irrigation expansion and commercial farming development to close the supply gap over time, but elevated fertilizer costs and ongoing supply chain disruptions present significant near-term obstacles. The milling industry's dependence on a blend of domestic and imported wheat further underscores the structural nature of Ethiopia's import reliance and its sensitivity to international market conditions.

Global Maize Market Weekly Summary

• Ukraine's maize production for 2025/26 remains at 30,700,000 tons, with exports held steady at 22,000,000 tons, representing approximately 71% of total output. Trade flows are being redirected as an EU import cap of 3,200,000 tons pushes excess volumes toward Mediterranean and Middle Eastern markets. Rising urea and ammonia prices are increasing input costs for smaller producers, introducing risk to future planting cycles and adding financial strain across the sector.
• Argentina's maize production forecast for the new crop harvest has been raised to 67,000,000 tons, a figure 27% above the previous national record. The increase is driven by an expanded sown area of 10,200,000 hectares, with farmers favoring maize over soybeans this season. Relatively lower export duties and competitive free-on-board pricing are reinforcing Argentina's strong standing in global export markets, making this record crop particularly significant for international trade flows.
• Brazil's 2026/27 maize output is forecast at 136,000,000 tons, though domestic consumption is set at 96,300,000 tons, reflecting the growing influence of the ethanol sector on acreage allocation. The expansion of ethanol production is tightening the gap between supply and domestic demand, which may constrain Brazil's ability to maintain high export volumes despite the sizeable harvest. Logistical and storage limitations present further challenges that could cap export capabilities regardless of production growth.
• The U.S. maize production forecast for 2025/26 remains unchanged at 432,340,000 tons, with exports steady at 83,820,000 tons and ending stocks constant at 54,000,000 tons. Domestic conditions are stable with no immediate production risks, preserving the country's established position in global maize markets. Policy developments and any shifts in domestic market conditions will be worth monitoring for their potential influence on future outputs.

Global Maize Market Weekly Summary

• The global maize market is navigating a broadly bearish supply environment, with elevated stock levels in the United States, tightening domestic availability in Brazil, and adaptive export strategies from Ukraine and South Africa each contributing to a complex and shifting trade picture.
• In the United States, corn planting intentions for 2026 fell to 95,338,000 acres, with rising fertilizer and fuel costs driven by geopolitical tensions cited as the primary deterrent. Stocks stood at 9,024,000,000 bushels as of March 1, raising concerns about excess supply. Export demand from Mexico, Japan, and South Korea provided some support, and domestic ethanol consumption showed modest growth, but neither was sufficient to meaningfully offset the surplus or shift prevailing bearish market sentiment.
• Brazil's 2025/26 safrinha corn crop is projected at 135,700,000 metric tons, with both reduced planted area and weather-related risks weighing on the outlook. Strong domestic ethanol demand is competing directly with export availability, with anticipated export volumes set at 42,000,000 metric tons. Despite improved first-crop forecasts, overall national supply remains tight given the scale of internal consumption.
• Ukraine posted maize exports of 2,590,000 metric tons in March 2026, a 14% year-on-year increase. With European Union import caps constraining traditional trade routes, Ukraine has diversified its export destinations toward the Middle East and North Africa, demonstrating an effective capacity to adapt to logistical and regulatory barriers while sustaining its global market presence.
• South Africa is projecting maize production of 16,100,000 metric tons for the 2026/27 season, with reduced export volumes anticipated as a result of expected production declines and steady local demand. Rising input costs, particularly for nitrogen-based fertilizers, alongside potential diesel supply constraints, present risks to future planting and harvesting cycles. Adequate storage capacity and a relatively light regulatory environment offer some degree of domestic market resilience in the near term.

Global Wheat Market Weekly Summary

• The global wheat market is being shaped by a combination of trade policy adjustments, shifting acreage trends, and competitive export dynamics, with each major producing and importing nation responding to distinct domestic and international pressures.
• Indonesia is emerging as a more active participant in global wheat trade, driven by expanding milling capacity and rising domestic demand. A bilateral trade agreement with the United States, which includes tariff exemptions on wheat imports, is bolstering import volumes while simultaneously strengthening domestic processing capabilities. This arrangement is also serving as a buffer against global wheat price volatility, reflecting a deliberate and strategic approach to supply security.
• Russia continues to assert its dominance in global wheat export markets, with volumes directed particularly toward North Africa and the Middle East. Favorable crop yield conditions, combined with active governmental management of export tariffs to balance domestic availability against international sales objectives, are sustaining Russia's competitive position and reinforcing its influence over global trade flows.
• In the United States, the wheat market faces a more complex outlook. Futures price movements are being driven by variable crop conditions across key growing regions and shifting export demand. A notable downward trend in planted wheat acreage raises questions about future domestic supply levels and the country's ability to maintain its export standing in an increasingly competitive environment.
• Australia's wheat sector is contending with climatic unpredictability, which poses risks to production volumes. Geographic proximity to Asian markets remains a structural advantage, supporting trade relationships in the region. However, Australia faces intensifying competition from both Russia and the United States for those same markets, keeping pressure on pricing and export positioning.

This episode reviews the global maize market as of March 22, 2026,

• A key theme is the contrast between symbolic market openings and large-scale established trade. Kyrgyzstan’s first maize export shipment to China, a modest 25 tons under a new phytosanitary agreement, marks an important diplomatic and commercial step for its agricultural sector. However, the volume is negligible when compared with China’s projected import requirement of 8 million tons for the 2025-26 marketing year, so the immediate impact on the global maize market is minimal.
• The United States remains a major force in the market, with export commitments reaching 66.513 million metric tons by mid-March 2026, up 32 percent from a year earlier. Strong demand from Mexico, Japan, and Colombia is supporting this pace. At the same time, rising fertilizer and operating costs could reduce planted area in the 2026-27 cycle, raising the possibility that the market could shift from more comfortable supply conditions toward tighter fundamentals later on.
• Mexico is presented as a market under growing import dependence. Production is expected to decline to 24.5 million tons in 2026-27, while imports are projected to exceed domestic output. Oversupply in white maize, weaker farm gate prices, and strong livestock feed demand are all contributing to this change, with feed use estimated at 52.5 million tons. The episode suggests that Mexico’s domestic imbalance is making it increasingly reliant on foreign maize to meet consumption needs.
• India and Brazil round out the global picture. India’s maize export forecast has been revised to 650,000 tons, helped by competitive pricing and ethanol policy changes that favor rice over maize, making more maize available for export. Brazil, despite a slight production dip in 2025-26 due to a shortened sowing window affecting yields, is still expected to produce 138.27 million tons. With strong domestic demand from both feed and ethanol, Brazil’s ability to balance internal consumption with exports will remain central to its role in the global maize trade.

This episode reviews the global wheat market as of March 22, 2026.

• A key contrast in the episode is between smaller local interventions and major global supply centers. In India, wheat procurement has begun in Suramar district under a government-set minimum support price of 2,505 rupees per quintal. While this provides support for local farmers, the report makes clear that the district’s scale is too limited to meaningfully influence the broader national wheat market.
• Russia, by comparison, remains central to the global wheat trade. The episode highlights an upgraded harvest projection of 87.6 million tons, reinforcing Russia’s dominant role in world supply. Even with weather-related logistical challenges and ongoing export duties, the report suggests that Russia’s position in international markets is unlikely to change significantly because of the sheer scale of its production and export capacity.
• The European Union is presented as another important competitive supplier, balancing high production levels with logistical inefficiencies. Romania stands out as a leading exporter, and despite some expected output declines, the broader outlook still points to enough wheat production to keep the region competitive in global markets. Azerbaijan, meanwhile, is discussed from the demand side, with increased wheat imports signaling economic strain, trade reporting inconsistencies, and rising regional dependence on outside supply.
• In the United States, the market is described as highly sensitive to weather in key growing regions. Localized yield concerns are influencing short- and mid-term price direction, especially in futures markets such as Chicago, where trading is reacting to both domestic crop conditions and wider global developments. Overall, the episode presents a wheat market defined less by immediate scarcity and more by the interaction of weather, logistics, and policy across major exporting and importing regions.

This episode delivers a comprehensive update on the global wheat market.

• Russia’s wheat export forecast remains unchanged at 44 million tons for the 2025–26 season. Domestically, wheat prices have stabilized despite global pressures, with December export pricing at $227.50 per ton. While cultivated areas have expanded, logistical challenges from non-traditional exporting regions could limit volumes. Ongoing discussions for export deals with Indonesia emphasize Russia’s growing influence in global wheat trade.
• The United States Department of Agriculture has slightly increased its harvest estimate to 87.5 million tons. The European Union continues to contribute significantly to global wheat output, with steady export expectations at 33 million tons. However, a return to typical yield levels is anticipated in 2026 following an exceptionally productive year.
• Ukraine’s wheat exports fell by 19 percent year over year in November, totaling 1.1 million tons. Over the past five months, exports reached 7.3 million tons, a 20 percent drop from the previous marketing year. Key buyers include Egypt, Indonesia (whose imports declined 9 percent), and Algeria. Despite reduced performance, Ukraine's export potential is forecasted to reach 16.7 million tons, slightly above earlier projections.
• Uzbekistan is reforming its subsidy system for wheat and cotton farmers to improve efficiency through data-driven, cost-based allocations. In Saudi Arabia, wheat utilization is projected to reach 4.6 million tons by 2025–26, driven by demographic and economic growth. However, domestic production will cover only a quarter of demand, requiring substantial imports.
• Iran has increased wheat imports to 1.125 million tons from April to October, prompted by declining domestic output. Imports from Russia, the UAE, and Turkey are helping secure food supplies and support the processing sector.
• Canada has raised its wheat production estimates to record levels, contributing to the overall surge in global wheat output. Meanwhile, shifts in export strategies and futures pricing continue to influence international trade patterns.

This episode presents a global overview of the maize market.

• In the United States, corn exports have risen sharply, reaching 3.2 billion bushels due to strong November shipments, with export expectations from September to November projected to surpass 20.32 million tons. Despite the export surge, U.S. ending stocks have dropped by 3.17 million tons to 50.84 million tons, while producer prices remain steady at $4 per bushel.
• Ukraine’s maize sector continues to face disruptions due to abnormal weather patterns, which have reduced both cultivation areas and productivity. These challenges have significantly weakened Ukraine’s production and export capacity, contributing to a tighter global supply. Similarly, Canada has revised its corn production figures downward, compounding global supply concerns. A noted reduction in barley holdings also suggests a likely decline in Canadian grain exports.
• Nigeria is facing a critical maize deficit. With current production at approximately 12 million metric tons—well below the 20 million metric tons required for food security and exports the country is at risk of both price instability and supply shortages. In contrast, Indonesia shows strong growth prospects, with production expected to rise 9 percent to 16.5 million metric tons in 2025, supported by a 20.91 percent increase in harvest areas. However, a forecasted production dip in October 2025 may challenge this upward trend.
• Within the European Union, countries like Spain, Hungary, Romania, and Poland have reported maize production gains, helping offset declines elsewhere in the bloc. This shift is part of a broader trade adjustment, with the EU reducing maize import volumes.
• Japan is increasing maize imports in response to high domestic rice prices, with import volumes projected to reach 15.8 million tons—a six-year high highlighting a move toward more affordable animal feed alternatives.
• Globally, coarse grain production has slightly declined to 1.576 billion tons. The reduction in maize supply from Ukraine has affected trade patterns, with global corn stocks now estimated at 279.2 million tons, down 2.2 million tons from prior projections. Argentina has helped mitigate some of the shortfall with increased holdings, while reductions from Canada and Ukraine remain a concern.