Global Maize Market Weekly Summary

• Ukraine's maize production for 2025/26 remains at 30,700,000 tons, with exports held steady at 22,000,000 tons, representing approximately 71% of total output. Trade flows are being redirected as an EU import cap of 3,200,000 tons pushes excess volumes toward Mediterranean and Middle Eastern markets. Rising urea and ammonia prices are increasing input costs for smaller producers, introducing risk to future planting cycles and adding financial strain across the sector.
• Argentina's maize production forecast for the new crop harvest has been raised to 67,000,000 tons, a figure 27% above the previous national record. The increase is driven by an expanded sown area of 10,200,000 hectares, with farmers favoring maize over soybeans this season. Relatively lower export duties and competitive free-on-board pricing are reinforcing Argentina's strong standing in global export markets, making this record crop particularly significant for international trade flows.
• Brazil's 2026/27 maize output is forecast at 136,000,000 tons, though domestic consumption is set at 96,300,000 tons, reflecting the growing influence of the ethanol sector on acreage allocation. The expansion of ethanol production is tightening the gap between supply and domestic demand, which may constrain Brazil's ability to maintain high export volumes despite the sizeable harvest. Logistical and storage limitations present further challenges that could cap export capabilities regardless of production growth.
• The U.S. maize production forecast for 2025/26 remains unchanged at 432,340,000 tons, with exports steady at 83,820,000 tons and ending stocks constant at 54,000,000 tons. Domestic conditions are stable with no immediate production risks, preserving the country's established position in global maize markets. Policy developments and any shifts in domestic market conditions will be worth monitoring for their potential influence on future outputs.