Global Wheat Market Weekly Summary

• Russian wheat exports from Krasnodar territory ports rose 56% in 2026, reaching 7,800,000 tons, with Egypt and Turkey the primary buyers. Egypt alone accounted for 2,800,000 tons of that volume. The export surge followed the conclusion of a zero-duty export period, with a duty of 515.6 rubles per ton now reinstated. Russia's freight cost advantage to Middle Eastern and African markets remains a structural competitive strength. However, a narrowing price gap between Russian and European wheat could erode that advantage over time, particularly if global freight costs continue to rise.
• Ethiopia's wheat production forecast for 2026/27 stands at 7,000,000 tons, an improvement on prior levels but still materially short of the country's 8,200,000 ton consumption requirement. As a result, Ethiopia is projected to import 1,400,000 tons, sourced predominantly from the Black Sea region. The government is investing in irrigation expansion and commercial farming development to close the supply gap over time, but elevated fertilizer costs and ongoing supply chain disruptions present significant near-term obstacles. The milling industry's dependence on a blend of domestic and imported wheat further underscores the structural nature of Ethiopia's import reliance and its sensitivity to international market conditions.