- **Theme of the week:** Stabilizing demand signals, but rising execution risk—driven by value-conscious consumers and major distribution disruption.

- **Wholesaler signal:** NBWA’s January Beer Purchasers’ Index rebounded sharply vs. December, with **below-premium** reaching an expansion threshold—though overall conditions remain cautious.

- **Beer pricing reality:** Industry leaders say the era of dependable annual price hikes is fading; focus shifts to **pack/price architecture** and tighter value ladders.

- **Moderation & substitution:** Dry January and longer-run data point to sustained moderation; **NA beer and RTDs** remain key beneficiaries.

- **RTD momentum:** RTDs continue to capture occasions and attract investment, reshaping innovation priorities.

- **Wine split:** Off-premise remains pressured while on-premise—especially fine dining—acts as a stabilizer; California supply may tighten later after a sharply lower 2025 crush.

- **Spirits overhang:** American whiskey faces heavy inventory and declining shipments, driving production/asset decisions and increasing the odds of future price pressure.

- **Big route-to-market story:** **RNDC exits California**, triggering rapid supplier and brand realignments (including Tito’s and Brown-Forman moves) and creating near-term service risk—and competitive opportunity.

- **California regulatory updates:** Expanded **DTC spirits shipping** (for qualifying craft distillers) and new **mandatory EFT payments** from retailers to wholesalers starting 2026; compliance scrutiny rising around kratom products.

- **Adjacent adult products:** Hemp-THC regulation pressure builds; Curaleaf exits hemp-THC, and retailers push for federally regulated, age-gated frameworks.

- **Macro undercurrent:** Private label and value retail expansion continue to pressure pricing power and reward operational excellence.

- **Theme of the week:** A “K-shaped” U.S. alcohol market—headline declines, but strong growth pockets in NA beer, RTDs, and select super-premium brands

- **Beer 2025 wrap:** Total beer finished down in dollars and volume; **domestic premium weakened** while **domestic super premium and NA beer grew sharply**

- **Channel signal:** Convenience stores are holding up better for beer, with **NA beer surging** and seltzer stabilizing relative to broader retail

- **On-premise vs off-premise:** Alcohol pricing **away from home is rising faster** than at-home inflation, reinforcing the battle for occasions and mix

- **Distribution disruption risk:** RNDC uncertainty and supplier exits are accelerating wholesaler consolidation; **route-to-market stability is now a P&L issue**

- **Demand + inventory backdrop:** Moderation trend remains strong; elevated inventories increase the risk of shipment volatility and promo pressure

- **Hemp tightening:** Federal and state actions are narrowing the intoxicating hemp playing field—**higher compliance costs, fewer gray areas**

- **Wine watch:** Ongoing off-premise softness plus new sourcing/transparency scrutiny (including “American” labeling proposals)

- **Big takeaway:** Growth is available, but it’s concentrated—winning in 2026 means aligning portfolio bets with the right occasions, channels, and distributors while staying ahead of regulation

Holiday sales delivered a short-term lift, but total U.S. alcohol demand remains down ~5–6% YoY across beer, wine, and spirits

RTDs and prepared cocktails remain the clear growth engine, growing dollars despite softer volumes

Beer declines continue, but super-premium, import, and non-alcoholic segments are gaining share

Spirits face mounting pressure outside of RTDs, with visible financial stress among smaller operators

Wholesaler inventories remain elevated, driving tighter SKU discipline and cautious buying into 2026

Supplier distribution strategies are shifting toward regional and mid-tier partners for better execution

Health-and-wellness narratives, moderation, and substitution (NA beer, THC beverages) are now structural demand factors

Wine demand is increasingly bifurcated, with growth concentrated in imports and sparkling wines