- **Theme of the week:** Stabilizing demand signals, but rising execution risk—driven by value-conscious consumers and major distribution disruption.

- **Wholesaler signal:** NBWA’s January Beer Purchasers’ Index rebounded sharply vs. December, with **below-premium** reaching an expansion threshold—though overall conditions remain cautious.

- **Beer pricing reality:** Industry leaders say the era of dependable annual price hikes is fading; focus shifts to **pack/price architecture** and tighter value ladders.

- **Moderation & substitution:** Dry January and longer-run data point to sustained moderation; **NA beer and RTDs** remain key beneficiaries.

- **RTD momentum:** RTDs continue to capture occasions and attract investment, reshaping innovation priorities.

- **Wine split:** Off-premise remains pressured while on-premise—especially fine dining—acts as a stabilizer; California supply may tighten later after a sharply lower 2025 crush.

- **Spirits overhang:** American whiskey faces heavy inventory and declining shipments, driving production/asset decisions and increasing the odds of future price pressure.

- **Big route-to-market story:** **RNDC exits California**, triggering rapid supplier and brand realignments (including Tito’s and Brown-Forman moves) and creating near-term service risk—and competitive opportunity.

- **California regulatory updates:** Expanded **DTC spirits shipping** (for qualifying craft distillers) and new **mandatory EFT payments** from retailers to wholesalers starting 2026; compliance scrutiny rising around kratom products.

- **Adjacent adult products:** Hemp-THC regulation pressure builds; Curaleaf exits hemp-THC, and retailers push for federally regulated, age-gated frameworks.

- **Macro undercurrent:** Private label and value retail expansion continue to pressure pricing power and reward operational excellence.