Welcome to Exponential View, the show where I explore how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping our future. I've been studying AI and exponential technologies at the frontier for over ten years. Each week, I share some of my analysis or speak with an expert guest to make light of a particular topic.

To keep up with the Exponential transition, subscribe to this channel or to my newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/

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In this episode, I share my outlook for 2026 and explain why AI tools now feel genuinely different. I explore how the act of making has been transformed, why authenticity and meaning will become the new scarcity, and whether the foundations of energy and capital can hold. I also address the question I was asked most in 2025: when will the AI bubble burst?

Skip to the best bits:

00:00 Why AI feels different in 2026

01:59 The six shifts in AI 03:32 The "done list" era

06:43 From execution to orchestration

09:02 The agentic coding revolution

11:10 What's a Chief Question Officer?

13:58 Three ways value will be created

16:27 "Claude told me to use ChatGPT"

18:02 The AI usage gap

20:30 The new moat in 2026

26:10 How does solar growth affect AI?

28:53 Revisiting the bubble or boom question

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Where to find me:

Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/

Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar/

Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem

Production by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1

Production and research: Chantal Smith and Marija Gavrilov.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Welcome to Exponential View, the show where I explore how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping our future. I've been studying AI and exponential technologies at the frontier for over ten years.

Each week, I share some of my analysis or speak with an expert guest to make light of a particular topic.

To keep up with the Exponential transition, subscribe to this channel or to my newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/

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In this episode, Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman and I discuss how a strong US economy, high asset valuations, and rapid AI adoption are sitting in uneasy tension. We explore what past technology cycles can teach us, why safety nets struggle to address disruption, and where genuine optimism still makes sense.

This is a January 2025 rerun, which remains strikingly relevant today.

We covered:

(01:09) State of the US economy

(02:28) "That end of 1999 feeling"

(05:08) Insights and lessons from the dotcom bubble

(09:57) Why today's market is different

(13:44) Understanding AI's role in labor displacement

(16:05) Are LLMs "souped-up autocorrect"?

(20:14) How job displacement erodes communities

(23:40) 2025's looming threat of tariffs

(26:16) AI's surprising impact on globalization

(30:15) Can markets address inequality?

(33:06) The maximum level of sustainable national debt

(36:31) When should the Fed raise interest rates?

(38:57) The need to revitalize local economies

(44:53) Did Paul's 2025 predictions come true?

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Where to find me:

Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/

Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar/

Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem

Production by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1

Production and research: Chantal Smith and Marija Gavrilov.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Welcome to Exponential View, the show where I explore how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping our future. I've been studying AI and exponential technologies at the frontier for over ten years. Each week, I share some of my analysis or speak with an expert guest to make light of a particular topic.

To keep up with the Exponential transition, subscribe to this channel or to my newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/

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What made 2025 special?

In this episode, I reflect on the past year and what it revealed: a K-shaped divide. On one track, AI models are now doing hours of high quality work, improving at exponential pace, and shifting how we work from doing to judging. On the other, organisations and the broader economy are struggling to keep up. Stay to the end for my seasonal film recommendation.

I cover:

(00:00) Intro

(00:45) The state of tool usage in 2025

(6:10) The gap between AI progress and organizational adoption

(9:53) AI’s shockingly rapid revenue growth

(11:17) The biggest mistake smart people make with AI

(14:14)  The inescapable need for physical infrastructure

(16:06) What everyone was asking in 2025

(18:08) The new winners of the AI economy

(20:48) Why “K” is the letter of 2025

(24:08) Seasonal movie recommendation

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Where to find me:

Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/

Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar/

Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem

Production by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1

Production and research: Chantal Smith and Marija Gavrilov.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.