Épisodes

  • When the Military is Pulled into Politics | Robert Pape

    When the Military is Pulled into Politics | Robert Pape
    Sep 24 2026
    The midterms are five and a half weeks away, and Professor Robert Pape says most of the warnings are aimed at the wrong window. Political violence around elections isn't mainly about intimidating voters before Election Day. The real danger zone opens the moment the polls close and the counting starts, and it runs all the way through certification. The question is whether the losers will accept the loss. Pape joins Scott to talk about his new book, Our Own Worst Enemies: America in the Age of Violent Populism. It draws on five years of research and 20 national surveys of support for political violence in the United States. They get into the domestic escalation trap America is walking into, why the Iran war could give the president much stronger legal footing to use the National Guard or the military at home than he had in 2020, why the guardrails that held in 2020 are gone, and what service members need to understand before any order comes. Get the book: https://www.amazon.com/Our-Own-Worst-Enemies-Populism/dp/1620979586/ref=sr_1_1?dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.vs_iGQNW5qgYzmPAhBuYLw.d8JMeR0ou3Gdzt5HvoGc6u1M8nsI9WC3xo8dzqM5_Ec&dib_tag=se&keywords=9781620979587&linkCode=qs&qid=1790261780&s=books&sr=1-1 Robert Pape's Substack, The Escalation Trap: https://escalationtrap.substack.com
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    31 min
  • The Invisible War: How Gray Zone Attacks Work | fmr. NSC director F. David Diaz

    The Invisible War: How Gray Zone Attacks Work | fmr. NSC director F. David Diaz
    Sep 24 2026
    Sabotage. Arson. Drone swarms over critical infrastructure. Cyber intrusions into American water utilities. Gray zone attacks are built to look like accidents, fall between agencies, and do their damage before anyone connects the dots. Fmr. NSC Director F. David Diaz, a Marine officer turned State Department and Joint Staff strategist who now teaches at Georgetown, joins Scott to break down his new Council on Foreign Relations report on gray zone attacks against U.S. allies and partners. They cover what makes an attack "gray zone," why deniability doesn't have to last forever to work, and the campaign recognition problem. They also get into why Russia is reportedly shifting its targeting toward smaller defense companies in Europe and why no one in the U.S. government clearly owns the problem. Plus: why institutional reform tends to be "written in blood," and what government and industry can do before it comes to that. Read the CFR report, Gray Zone Attacks Against U.S. Allies and Partners:https://www.cfr.org/reports/gray-zone-attacks-against-u-s-allies-and-partners Subscribe on Substack:https://substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg Note: Grayzone Advisory, sponsor of the show, is a consulting firm and not in the business of conducting gray zone operations. Learn more at grayzoneadvisory.com.
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    58 min
  • She Didn't Look Like a Veteran in Crisis. That Was the Problem.

    She Didn't Look Like a Veteran in Crisis. That Was the Problem.
    Sep 22 2026
    Sam Hargrove spent years being known for her smile — while privately battling a rage she couldn't explain, seven rounds of anger management, and a night she nearly drove her car into a tree. A communications specialist caught in an explosion in Iraq, Sam faced a specific kind of dismissal on top of everything else: "ain't nothing wrong with you," the running joke aimed at a "chair force" veteran who didn't fit anyone's picture of what combat trauma looks like. This conversation covers the explosion, the personality change that followed, the moment her godson saw her rage and got scared, the night in the rain that nearly ended differently, and how Wounded Warrior Project's Warrior Care Network and an inpatient program at Emory gave her the follow-up care the VA's "initial push" didn't. She's now a WWP peer leader and national campaign team member — someone other veterans call at 3 a.m. If you or someone you know is in crisis, call or text 988 (Suicide & Crisis Lifeline), or reach the Veterans Crisis Line at 988, press 1. This is Episode 3 of Still Here, a five-part series produced in partnership with Wounded Warrior Project for Suicide Prevention Awareness Month. Catch up with Episode 1 (Zach) and Episode 2 (Lindsey) if you haven't yet. Episode 4 — Joe, a fellow Green Beret whose story takes a very different turn — drops this Sunday. Chapters: 0:00 Cold open & recap of the series so far 1:06 Welcome, and introducing Sam 1:37 A generational connection: same war, different era 2:54 Setting the scene: an explosion in Iraq 3:20 Seven anger management classes, and the day her godson saw her rage 6:15 "Black female in the chair force": identity, stigma, and the VA 6:58 "Ain't nothing wrong with you" — the running joke 8:44 The explosion itself, and what she still doesn't know 9:31 How the rage and drinking built over time 10:36 "Shut up and color": why she never sought help in uniform 12:33 A hair-trigger she couldn't explain 13:23 Coming home: losing the Fourth of July 14:16 The night she decided to end it 16:45 What was scarier: dying, or asking for help 17:25 VA vs. Wounded Warrior Project: why follow-up mattered 18:35 Inside the Emory inpatient program 21:28 Her Emory circle vs. her military circle 22:17 Losing people to suicide, including an uncle in November 24:29 "He wasn't weak, he just couldn't fight anymore" 26:43 What to do if you're worried about someone 28:17 "Check on your happy friends" 29:55 Next week: Joe's story Learn more about Wounded Warrior Project: woundedwarriorproject.org This episode is brought to you by Grayzone Advisory. At the Water's Edge is hosted by Scott Kelly. Follow for weekly conversations on national security, geopolitics, and the people who serve.
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    30 min
  • What Happens If the US Uses a Nuclear Weapon on Iran | Robert Pape

    What Happens If the US Uses a Nuclear Weapon on Iran | Robert Pape
    Sep 21 2026
    University of Chicago professor Robert Pape (Bombing to Win, The Escalation Trap) is back for his weekly read on the U.S.-Iran conflict — and this one goes to a darker place than usual. Pape lays out how Iran is quietly becoming an oil hegemon through the Houthis and Iraqi militias, why the IRGC's threat to "shock the world" might be a signal about Pickaxe Mountain, and what actually happens — militarily, economically, and politically — if the U.S. or Israel uses a tactical nuclear weapon to try to end it. Scott and Pape also cover the 5-stage escalation trap framework, the case for offshore balancing, a possible Korean-style armistice in Ukraine, and whether recent U.S. strikes could constitute war crimes. Topics: 01:09 — Iran's rise as an oil hegemon 08:30 — Inside Pickaxe Mountain: can we even reach it? 14:59 — The case against a tactical nuclear strike 18:25 — Breaking the taboo: America as global pariah 24:48 — Political fallout and the road to a ground war 37:03 — The escalation trap, explained 46:08 — Europe, Ukraine, and the case for an armistice 52:00 — War crimes, morality, and power Follow Robert Pape's analysis at escalationtrap.substack.com. Pape returns Thursday to preview his new book, Our Own Worst Enemies. Subscribe to At the Water's Edge on Substack: substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg
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    58 min
  • The Houthis Just Dragged Europe Into the Iran War

    The Houthis Just Dragged Europe Into the Iran War
    Sep 18 2026
    The Houthis just took the entire Red Sea coastline — and it's about to drag Europe into a war it wanted no part of. In ten days, Houthi forces captured Yemen's Red Sea coast, seized the strait's key islands, and helped force the shutdown of Saudi Arabia's emergency oil pipeline — closing the second major chokepoint Saudi Arabia needs to move crude, right after Hormuz. Brent crude is over $107 a barrel. The U.S. Navy is stretched across two flashpoints with one fleet. Saudi Arabia asked Washington for strikes and got turned down — twice — the same way Trump got turned down by the Gulf states six months ago. So Riyadh turned to an unlikely partner: Israel, now sharing intelligence with Saudi Arabia against a common enemy. And Europe, heading into winter with gas storage at its lowest level in 15 years, is watching Italy break from Brussels and send warships to the strait alone. Scott breaks down how a regional shipping crisis turns into a transatlantic energy emergency — and asks the uncomfortable question: did anyone benefit from letting this happen? Topics covered: the Houthi offensive and timeline · the oil market shock · why the U.S. Navy is tapped out · the Trump-Saudi "two no's" · Israel's quiet pivot into Saudi intelligence sharing · Europe's winter energy squeeze · Italy's unilateral naval deployment Enjoyed this one? Like, subscribe, and share it with a friend. For the full briefing deck behind this episode and more, subscribe on Substack: https://substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg
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    16 min
  • The Neuroscience of Suicidal Ideation: Why the Brain Can't See a Way Out

    The Neuroscience of Suicidal Ideation: Why the Brain Can't See a Way Out
    Sep 17 2026
    What's actually happening in someone's brain in the moments before they decide to end their life? Lindsey Gray, Suicide Prevention Manager at Wounded Warrior Project, breaks down the neuroscience — why the prefrontal cortex goes offline, why the amygdala floods the system with threat signals, and why suicide isn't a character failure but, as she puts it, "a breakdown in the brain." This conversation covers the gradient from passive ideation to active planning, a counterintuitive finding on combat exposure and resilience, why alcohol lowers the barrier between thinking about suicide and acting on it, and the ASIST model — the actual evidence-based framework for intervening with someone in crisis. Scott also shares the story of Dan, a soldier under his command, and what he wishes he'd known then. If you or someone you know is in crisis, call or text 988 (Suicide & Crisis Lifeline), or reach the Veterans Crisis Line at 988, press 1. This is Episode 2 of Still Here, a five-part series produced in partnership with Wounded Warrior Project for Suicide Prevention Awareness Month. If you haven't heard Episode 1 — Zach Tidwell's story — start there. Episode 3 drops next week. Chapters: 0:00 Cold open & recap of Zach's episode 1:03 Welcome, and what Lindsey does at WWP 1:41 What is a "suicide safer community"? 2:13 What's happening in the brain when someone decides to die 4:00 Weakness or a broken brain? Reframing the stigma 5:51 Scott's story: a spike in suicidal ideation in his battalion 6:39 The gradient from ideation to action 8:27 Military culture, the "22 a day" debate, and the combat-exposure surprise 12:09 Fort Drum, demographics, and comparing veteran and civilian suicide rates 14:25 Getting upstream: what prevention actually looks like 16:33 Warning signs, and why arguing someone out of it backfires 18:27 "Time and distance saves lives" 19:56 Scott's story: Dan, and a checklist that wasn't the answer 21:20 ASIST: the actual model for intervention 23:09 Who's best positioned to help, and building a network of five 25:32 Alcohol's role in lowering the barrier to act 26:47 How to approach someone, and where to point them for help 29:00 Closing thoughts Learn more about Wounded Warrior Project: woundedwarriorproject.org This episode is brought to you by Grayzone Advisory. At the Water's Edge is hosted by Scott Kelly. Follow for weekly conversations on national security, geopolitics, and the people who serve.
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    30 min
  • October 7 Was “A Reenactment,” Not a Rupture | Robert Malley

    October 7 Was “A Reenactment,” Not a Rupture | Robert Malley
    Sep 14 2026
    Rob Malley has spent three decades inside the peace process he now argues was never built to succeed. He negotiated at Camp David under President Clinton, led Obama's Iran nuclear negotiations that produced the JCPOA, served as Biden's Special Envoy for Iran, and ran the International Crisis Group. He's now a Senior Fellow and Lecturer at Yale's Jackson School and co-author, with Hussein Agha, of Tomorrow Is Yesterday: Life, Death, and the Pursuit of Peace in Israel/Palestine. In this conversation, Scott and Malley cover: Why the twin caricatures of Palestinians and Iranians — irrational zealots on one hand, rational actors who'll cave under enough pressure on the other — are both wrong Why Malley argues October 7 wasn't a rupture from the past, but a reenactment of it What three decades of U.S.-mediated peace talks got wrong about the conflict from the start Three failed American approaches to Iran — diplomacy, sanctions, military force — and which one actually worked Whether international law means anything after the U.S.'s own record of violating it Why Israel's influence over American politics has been so durable, and why Malley thinks that's finally starting to shift What comes next for Gaza and the West Bank if the current trajectory holds More from At the Water's Edge: ⁠https://substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg⁠ Malley's book, Tomorrow Is Yesterday, is out now. https://www.amazon.com/Tomorrow-Yesterday-Pursuit-Israel-Palestine/dp/0374617120/ref=sr_1_1?dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.xXGA2LVaN84oK2HTqL0ZafM_ffC2qb0JcTzYRXwxYYruV7giWAcghjS_mCTijJO7ifqpr_rfyp9RaWXbHb9QEXkJ_WN8If_d9vDNoEVAz8vBZHr9CnQYeBZddsj59cPDMEFx7wja1QjVF0PPUm-jlHP8t7otOxcvsDbnY8EFaKb1_da3s0oLUHaY6qTl4OmtpFoZEobh1gjLsUweCGw9VoooRbweo-geXkoVnAuFQR4.IEQ9K_vB2pz9c_3zhVHO8UTil5XOFXOY3VjNKp-cC5c&dib_tag=se&hvadid=693803539913&hvdev=c&hvexpln=67&hvlocphy=9005070&hvnetw=g&hvocijid=3083797136747453616--&hvqmt=e&hvrand=3083797136747453616&hvtargid=kwd-2443396325718&hydadcr=22537_13531293&keywords=robert+malley+book&mcid=cd77b3f36d583266b3b283bcc5466f73&qid=1789409486&sr=8-1
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    59 min
  • Iran Now Controls the Red Sea's Only Oil Bypass | Robert Pape

    Iran Now Controls the Red Sea's Only Oil Bypass | Robert Pape
    Sep 13 2026
    The Houthis have seized control of the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait — and with the US Navy already stretched thin in the Strait of Hormuz, there's no clear path to reopening it. Professor Robert Pape returns to break down how we got here: Iran's methodical, multi-pronged campaign to choke off all three of the world's remaining oil buffers (the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Chinese import capacity, and now the Red Sea), and why he believes this is playing out exactly as he predicted back in June. In this episode: How the Iran-backed pipeline attack and Saudi shutdown fit into a broader strategy dating back to July Why "hammer and anvil" military doctrine explains why airstrikes alone won't dislodge the Houthis Pape's read on the "Pickaxe Mountain" reports and what they could signal heading into October What rising gas prices and a climbing 10-year Treasury yield mean for the US economy in the months ahead What Pape heard directly from EU officials in Brussels about Europe's actual priorities right now Got a question for Professor Pape? Send it to [askrobertpape@gmail.com] and we may cover it in a future episode. More analysis at our Substack: https://substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg
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    54 min