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At the Water's Edge

At the Water's Edge

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 The At the Water’s Edge Podcast explores national security and geopolitics from an insider’s perspective, looking at how national power, industrial policy, diplomacy, and military might shape our world and America’s place in it.All rights reserved by WRKdefined Politique et gouvernement Sciences politiques
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  • What Happens If Iran Loses Control of Its Terror Network? | Dr. Colin P. Clarke

    What Happens If Iran Loses Control of Its Terror Network? | Dr. Colin P. Clarke
    Apr 15 2026
    What happens if Iran loses control of its global network of proxy groups? In this episode of At the Water’s Edge, Scott sits down with Dr. Colin P. Clarke, Executive Director of the Soufan Center, to break down how terrorism is evolving—and why the next phase may be more dangerous than the last. They explore Iran’s strategy of using proxy organizations like Hezbollah and the Houthis, and why dismantling centralized control could actually increase the risk of more fragmented, unpredictable, and violent terrorist activity. The conversation also covers: Why today’s terrorism threat is more decentralized and complex than during the Global War on Terror How terrorist groups are funding themselves through organized crime and global networks The role of private military companies like the Wagner Group in fueling instability Why ISIS and its affiliates remain a persistent global threat How great power competition is intersecting with terrorism in places like the Middle East and Africa The risk of escalation between nuclear-armed states like India and Pakistan This is a practitioner-focused discussion on where terrorism stands today—and what policymakers, operators, and analysts may be missing about what comes next. Colin P. Clarke X/Twitter: @ColinPCarke Soufan Center Intel Brief: https://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief/
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    51 min
  • No Way Out of the Escalation Trap | Robert Pape on Iran

    No Way Out of the Escalation Trap | Robert Pape on Iran
    Apr 14 2026
    This is Part 4 of an ongoing series with Robert Pape (University of Chicago) tracking the Iran conflict in real time. Over the past week, several developments point to a deeper shift in the trajectory of the war: A ceasefire briefly emerged—then collapsed within 24 hours The U.S. and Iran moved toward a full blockade dynamic in the Strait of Hormuz Conflicting signals from the Trump administration on negotiations vs escalation Increasing pressure on global energy markets as disruption intensifies But the most important takeaway from this conversation is more structural: 👉 We are deep in the escalation trap—and there may be no easy off-ramp. Why escalation in this conflict is not linear—and why it appears chaotic in real time The two paths now emerging: accept Iran’s rise or escalate further How control of the Strait of Hormuz could elevate Iran to a new level of global power Why international reaction is not aligning against Iran in the way many expected What a sustained blockade means for global energy markets over the next 30–90 days The specific indicators that would signal further military escalation Conflicts like this don’t just escalate because of battlefield decisions. They escalate because neither side can accept the outcome of stopping. That’s the trap. Early signs of energy shortages as the blockade begins to take effect Any direct attacks on U.S. naval assets in or near the Strait of Hormuz Continued positioning for potential ground operations in the coming weeks New episodes released weekly tracking how this conflict evolves in real time. Pape publishes ongoing updates and frameworks on this conflict via Substack. https://escalationtrap.substack.com/ At the Water’s Edge focuses on practitioner-level insights into national security and geopolitics—bridging academic theory with how conflicts actually unfold in the real world.
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    31 min
  • Why Iran’s Regime Isn’t About to Fall (And What Everyone Gets Wrong) | Arash Azizi

    Why Iran’s Regime Isn’t About to Fall (And What Everyone Gets Wrong) | Arash Azizi
    Apr 8 2026
    For years, many in Washington have assumed that pressure, protests, or targeted strikes could trigger regime change in Iran. But what if those assumptions are fundamentally wrong? In this episode, Scott sits down with Arash Azizi, a writer and historian focused on Iranian politics, to break down what’s actually happening inside Iran right now—beyond the headlines. They discuss why the Iranian regime has remained in power despite widespread opposition, how authority is really structured inside the system, and why the lack of a coherent opposition movement may be the single biggest factor shaping Iran’s future. The conversation also explores: Who actually holds power inside Iran today Why leadership decapitation hasn’t led to regime collapse How the current war is impacting internal dynamics What a realistic path to regime change would require Why the next regime in Iran may not be democratic This is a grounded, inside look at Iran’s political reality—and what policymakers, analysts, and the public often get wrong.
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    40 min
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