What does intelligence look like in a world of accelerating threats, geopolitical instability and information overload?

In this episode of Siren Investigates, Siren CEO John Randles sits down with Major General John Howard, John Howard, MNZM, former NZDF Chief of Defence Intelligence and former Deputy Director for Commonwealth Integration at the DIA, whose career spans more than four decades across military operations, strategic planning and defence intelligence. His roles included Chief of Defence Intelligence for New Zealand and Deputy Director for Commonwealth Integration at the US Defense Intelligence Agency.

Their conversation explores the changing nature of conflict and the growing challenge of making good decisions when events, information and technology are moving faster than ever.

Major General Howard discusses the risk of an“escalation spiral”, the search for pathways towards de-escalation, and why the effects of conflict can continue through global energy, trade and supply chains long after the immediate crisis. As he puts it,“nothing happens in isolation.”

The discussion also explores how open-source intelligence (OSINT) is transforming intelligence gathering, the importance of finding faint signals before they become obvious threats, and why intelligence-led thinking has relevance far beyond defence and national security.

They discuss:

AI and intelligence analysis at the “speed of machine”

Escalation, de-escalation and the interconnected nature of modern conflict

Moving from data to actionable intelligence

The growing strategic importance of OSINT

Finding faint signals in increasingly complex information environments

Intelligence tradecraft, trust and analytical confidence

The danger of groupthink and confirmation bias

Why analytical diversity matters

Bringing intelligence-led decision-making into the boardroom

Why leaders need to plan rather than simply react to the next crisis

And one message runs throughout the conversation:

“Hope is not a strategy.”

For Major General Howard, the plan itself is not necessarily the most important thing. It is the planning that matters, because planning gives organisations the ability to adapt, shift resources and respond as circumstances change.

Siren Investigates explores how intelligence, investigation and technology can help keep people, assets and networks safe.

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