Myanmar just held its latest round of so-called elections - but the military's proxy party won over 85% of seats after banning the country's most popular opposition party and imprisoning its leaders, including Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi. Voting couldn't even take place across large portions of the country because resistance forces control the territory. So why do these sham elections matter to the rest of the world?

In this episode, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso sit down with retired three-time U.S. Ambassador and author Scot Marciel to unpack what these elections really mean, and why the stakes reach far beyond Southeast Asia.

Myanmar has become the world's largest source of methamphetamines and a booming hub for cyber scam operations that bilk victims worldwide out of billions of dollars annually. China is simultaneously deepening its strategic footprint in the country, building ports and pipelines from its southern provinces to the Indian Ocean - a critical geopolitical waterway - while Chinese companies extract rare earth minerals from Myanmar's north that barely benefit the country's own people.

Ambassador Marciel explains why the military held elections at all - not out of any democratic impulse, but to manufacture legitimacy and give countries like China, India, and Russia a convenient excuse to re-engage. He also breaks down why ASEAN, despite refusing to certify the results, remains largely paralyzed: constrained by its own consensus rules and non-interference norms, while watching China's influence expand with little competition.

On the outlook, Marciel is candid: there is no magic bullet, no easy diplomatic compromise, and the most likely near-term scenario is more of the same - a grinding civil war fading into the background while a fatigued world looks away. But he closes with one reason for hope: the extraordinary, unbreakable resilience of the Myanmar people themselves.

👉 Read Ambassador Marciel’s book, Imperfect Partners: The United States and Southeast Asia

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👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

In Ep. 130, Ray and Jim sit down with Clive Hamilton, one of the world's leading experts on Chinese Communist Party political influence operations. Hamilton is the author of the groundbreaking books Silent Invasion: China's Influence in Australia and Hidden Hand: Exposing How the Chinese Communist Party Is Reshaping the World.

In this compelling podcast, Hamilton shares the dramatic story behind Silent Invasion - a book so controversial that three major Australian publishers rejected it for fear of Beijing's retaliation. He reveals the personal costs of exposing CCP interference, from cyber-attacks that destroyed his laptop to being banned from China and labeled a "black hand" by Beijing's official media.

Hamilton breaks down how the CCP's United Front Work Department orchestrates political warfare through elite capture, diaspora mobilization, and covert influence in universities, media, and politics. He explains how Australia's 2018 counter-interference laws and Foreign Influence Transparency Scheme (FITS) emerged as a democratic defense - and evaluates their real-world effectiveness, including enforcement challenges and necessary reforms.

The conversation explores critical lessons for the Philippines and other Indo-Pacific nations facing similar CCP pressure, especially regarding South China Sea tensions. Hamilton offers practical advice on designing swift, effective counter-interference legislation while protecting diaspora communities from discrimination.

This is essential listening for anyone interested in China’s strategy, foreign influence operations, national security, democratic resilience, and Indo-Pacific geopolitics.

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👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight

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👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

Japan’s February 8th snap election delivered a historic result: Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) secured a rare two‑thirds supermajority in the powerful lower house, giving her the strongest mandate any postwar leader has enjoyed to date. That will sharply increase what she can do on economic policy, defense readiness, and how Japan responds to pressures from both the US and China.

​Jake Schlesinger - President and CEO of the US‑Japan Foundation and a longtime Japan-watcher - joins the show to explain why this election was a potential turning point in a political system often seen as stable to the point of stagnation. He argues that while Japan’s politics have frequently been defined by weak and short-lived prime ministers and cautious consensus, this vote creates the conditions for unusually decisive leadership.

Schlesinger describes an electorate focused less on the LDP’s history of political ethics controversies and more on daily economic pressure combined with a sense that Takaichi herself represents a fresh face. The episode unpacks how Japanese voters can be skeptical about big fiscal promises while still rewarding the leader who seems most willing to speak directly to pocketbook issues like inflation, wages, and household strain.

The conversation shifts to geopolitics, as Schlesinger highlights how China’s recent threats and coercive signaling appeared to backfire, strengthening public support for a leader who stands up rather than backing down. He frames this as a meaningful change in Japan’s public mood: a country once inclined to avoid antagonizing neighbors is increasingly prepared to accept friction if it’s tied to national security - particularly around Taiwan, a Chinese invasion of which Takaichi has warned would pose an existential crisis for Japan.

The episode also examines what this election mandate could mean for the US‑Japan alliance. While people-to-people ties remain strong, Schlesinger notes that Tokyo is navigating a complex era of “America-First” politics - simultaneously hugging the US closer while hedging its bets with other regional partners like Australia, India, the Philippines, and South Korea. Finally, the discussion touches on constitutional constraints on Japan’s military and whether this supermajority could finally open the door to a formal revision.

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👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific