US cash markets were closed Friday for Juneteenth, but global stocks stalled heading into the weekend as US-Iran peace talks opened at Bürgenstock, Switzerland. Mark Gardner breaks down the 14-point memorandum of understanding, what's likely to pass and what isn't, and why crude oil may be the standout risk-reward trade right now — with downside of 5–10% versus upside of 10–25% if negotiations collapse.

This episode covers:

— US-Iran talks at Bürgenstock: Vance, Araghchi, and the 60-day negotiating window
— Why Israel and Lebanon remain the wild card for any lasting deal
— S&P 500 futures down 0.62%, US tech futures down 1%, oil up 2.5% as of recording
— The case for energy as a portfolio hedge at extended US equity levels — Chevron, oil futures, and single-digit PE names
— Fed, ECB, and RBA hawkishness hammering precious metals — gold under pressure
— Australian CPI (Wednesday) and employment data (Thursday) — the numbers the RBA is watching
— Metcash (MTS) full-year earnings today; BHP Jansen potash cost blowout fallout
— Micron earnings Thursday morning — can memory prices justify the Philadelphia Semiconductors rally?
— US core PCE price index, final GDP, and Michigan sentiment later in the week

Mentioned: Software Survivors 2.0 webinar, Bulls vs Bears weekly podcast (Anthropic and OpenAI deep dive with Kai Chen and Jonathan Takadena)

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📧 Contact: mpcmarkets.com.au

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