The Fix Is Supply. So Why Does Everyone Keep Talking About Rates?

Congress just passed a bipartisan housing bill 390-9 — one of the least divisive votes in recent memory. The Federal Reserve is signaling it may roll back post-2008 mortgage capital rules that pushed banks out of the lending market. So why does housing still feel completely out of reach?

In this episode of The Tradeoff, Mattie breaks down why Washington keeps reaching for the wrong lever. Cutting interest rates feels like a fix — but in a supply-constrained market, cheaper financing just means sellers charge more. The real problem is that the U.S. is short an estimated 8 million housing units, and the political incentives to fix that have never lined up — until maybe now.

Mattie explains why millennials and Gen Z are bearing the brunt of regulations put in place after the 2008 crisis, why the generations most hurt by high housing costs are also the ones least likely to vote, and what it would actually take — in mortgage lending, zoning reform, and new construction — to move the needle on affordability.

What you'll learn:

• Why the House and Senate bills aren't law yet — and what to watch as they get reconciled
• How post-crisis bank capital requirements quietly killed mortgage competition
• Why lower rates and higher affordability often can't coexist
• The one data point that will tell you if any of this is actually working

Keywords: housing affordability, mortgage rates, housing supply, Congress housing bill, Housing for the 21st Century Act, Federal Reserve mortgage rules, first-time homebuyers, millennial homeownership, housing shortage, zoning reform, housing policy 2026

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The national debt just hit $31 trillion—but what does that actually mean for your wallet?

In this episode of The Tradeoff, Mattie breaks down why the federal debt and deficit aren't just abstract numbers for economists to worry about. Using the CBO's latest report, she explains how America's spending habits compare to rest of us who are budgeting and making sacrifices just to get by (spoiler: despite being 250 years old and having a near-stellar credit history, no bank would approve the US for a mortgage today).

You'll learn:

• The difference between debt and deficit—and why one matters more than you think
• Why our tax system isn't built to sustain this type of debt load
• How Social Security's worker-to-retiree ratio went from 40:1 to 2:1—and what that means for your retirement
• Why the U.S. will soon spend more on interest payments than on defense spending (yes, in this economy)
• What happens when the "check" finally comes due

This episode is a clear-eyed look at the math that determines whether we'll have the resources to respond to the next economic crisis—and what you can actually do about it.

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Is the U.S. labor market strengthening or stalling? In this episode of The Trade-Off, host Mattie Duppler breaks down the story three seemingly-contradictory data points tell us about the future of the economy this year.

What's covered:

• December JOLTS Report key metrics that really tell you about the state of the worker
• January Jobs Report a top-line number which exceeded expectations—but came alongside a massive downward revision for all of 2024
• Weekly Initial Claims trends and what the four-week moving average reveals about real-time labor market health

Key insights: Mattie argues that while hiring remains timid, the data doesn't suggest an economic collapse. Instead, employers are navigating policy uncertainty from the Trump administration, particularly around trade. With more certainty now emerging around these policies, businesses may finally release their "dry powder" and accelerate hiring.

The bottom line: Don't let alarming headlines fool you. When you understand how JOLTS, the monthly jobs report, and unemployment claims work together, there's evidence for cautious optimism. Mattie predicts that by summer 2025, we could see a key indicator improve—a sign of labor market strength.

Perfect for anyone trying to understand employment trends, labor economics, or how policy shapes business decisions in an uncertain economic environment.

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Follow Mattie on Instagram @MattieDC and Youtube @MattieDC

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