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The Red Line

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 Three experts, one Story. Each fortnight we host a panel of international experts diving into the biggest geopolitical stories shaping the news both here and overseas. Hosted by Michael HilliardCopyright 2019 Politique et gouvernement Sciences politiques
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    • 133 - Wargaming: A Turkish Invasion of Northern Cyprus

      133 - Wargaming: A Turkish Invasion of Northern Cyprus
      Jul 31 2025
      Cyprus sits at a persistent impasse, divided between the Republic of Cyprus in the south and the Turkish-backed administration in the north. Despite decades of negotiations, reunification remains elusive, and the island has quietly become one of the most militarised borders in Europe, patrolled by UN peacekeepers, flanked by British bases, and overshadowed by tens of thousands of Turkish troops. While Ankara now frames Cyprus as a lower strategic priority, its military presence on the island remains substantial, and recent tensions over gas exploration and border infrastructure suggest the status quo may be more fragile than it appears. So why does Turkey still maintain such a significant footprint in Northern Cyprus? How stable is the current arrangement? And what would happen if a local incident triggered a wider escalation? To unpack these questions and assess the island’s geopolitical future, we turn to our panel of experts. On the panel this week: - James Ker-Lindsay (Kent University) - Rich Outzen (The Atlantic Council) - Matthew Bryza (Straife) Intro - 00:00 PART I - 03:27 PART II - 26:10 PART III - 46:03 Outro - 57:25 Follow the show on https://x.com/TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on https://x.com/MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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      1 h et 9 min
    • 132 - Abkhazia: Client or Catalyst?

      132 - Abkhazia: Client or Catalyst?
      Jul 2 2025
      Abkhazia stands at a critical juncture, caught between its historical dependence on Russia and the uncertain allure of reconciliation with Georgia. Long overshadowed by Moscow's influence, recent years have seen the territory's population increasingly frustrated with Russia's heavy-handed presence, just as Tbilisi tentatively begins exploring pathways to re-engagement. Could growing anti-Russian sentiment signal a geopolitical realignment in the South Caucasus? Will Abkhazia tilt back toward Georgia, upsetting decades of frozen conflict dynamics? And why, despite mounting tensions and economic costs, does Moscow remain committed to maintaining its grip on this disputed strip of Black Sea coastline? To unpack these questions and understand the future of Abkhazia, we turn to our panel of experts: On the panel this week: - Laura Linderman (Central Asia-Caucasus Institute) - Beka Bajelidze (Institute for War and Peace) - Thomas de Waal (Carnegie Europe) Intro - 00:00 PART I - 03:49 PART II - 30:49 PART III - 1:00:15 Outro - 1:21:46 Follow the show on https://x.com/TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on https://x.com/MikeHilliardAusSupport the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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      1 h et 32 min
    • 131 - Who Controls Eastern Congo?

      131 - Who Controls Eastern Congo?
      May 27 2025
      The last few years have seen a dramatic shift in the balance of power in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), with Rwandan-backed militias advancing in North Kivu, Ugandan forces launching cross-border operations, and Western powers quietly increasing their presence in the region. What was once considered a forgotten conflict is now emerging as a new front in the global competition for influence, driven not just by security concerns, but by the region’s immense mineral wealth, critical for everything from electric vehicles to modern electronics. This week, we sit down with our expert panel to unpack who actually controls eastern Congo, why this strip of land has become so strategically valuable to outside powers, and how the local conflict is fast becoming a global contest between rival blocs. On the panel this week: - Hugh Kinsella Cunningham (DRC Photojournalist) - Alex Vines (Chatham House) - Michael Rubin (AEI) Intro - 00:00 PART I - 03:30 PART II - 40:38 PART III - 1:02:51 Outro - 1:33:03 Follow the show on https://x.com/TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on https://x.com/MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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      1 h et 43 min
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