Goldman Sachs has just reported one of its strongest and most profitable quarters on record, with more than $4 billion in revenue.

But with the Iran war reshaping the region and global recession risk rising, what are the world's leading investment banks actually thinking?

Anthony Gutman, co-chief executive of Goldman Sachs International and co-head of investment banking, joins Manus Cranny on The Inside Brief from Abu Dhabi, as one of the first senior international bankers to visit the UAE since the Iran conflict began.

In this episode, Mr Gutman shares what he found in 24 hours of back-to-back client meetings with sovereign wealth funds and corporate clients: not conversations about the macro, but requests for deal lists.

Mr Gutman addresses the disconnect between outside perceptions of the UAE and the reality on the ground, the question of long-term reputational impact on the region and why he believes damage will be limited if the conflict is resolved quickly.

He also spoke about the UAE's response to the conflict, saying leadership has done “a phenomenal job dealing with the safety and security of their people”, and that the country remains a place where people want to do business, bring their families and feel secure.

Despite the conflict, Goldman's advisory backlog remains close to record levels, with more than 20 deals of $10 billion or more executed in the first quarter alone.

On the global economy, Mr Gutman explains why Goldman's economists have set out a range of scenarios, base case to extreme, each correlated with how long the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and why the Q2 earnings season will be the defining moment.

Mr Gutman also speaks about AI and its role in driving the current M&A super cycle, how clients are learning to distinguish signal from noise in a volatile world, and what it actually takes to earn and keep a relationship at the highest levels of global finance.

In this live edition of The Inside Brief, host Manus Cranny is joined by Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, and Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, to assess the rapidly escalating conflict in the Middle East and its implications for oil markets, global growth and geopolitical stability.

Mr McNally warns that the world is adjusting to a major disruption in energy supply, with as much as 20 per cent of global energy flows affected. He argues that traditional policy responses are insufficient to offset a shock of this scale, describing the situation as a "math problem that is not solvable by the usual toolkit".

In Mr McNally's view, a resolution depends on either a ceasefire or the degradation of Iran’s military capabilities, which would allow energy flows to resume.

In the conversation, Mr Posen urges caution in interpreting the economic impact, arguing that policymakers should avoid overreacting. He emphasises that the global economy, particularly advanced economies, has shown resilience to past energy shocks. However, he highlights significant risks for emerging markets, where higher energy prices, weaker currencies and rising costs for food and fertiliser could lead to elevated inflation and economic strain.

Mr Posen also outlines how central banks are expected to respond in the near term, saying they will remain on hold while monitoring inflation expectations and allowing price signals to work through the system before taking action.

In this episode of The Inside Brief with Manus Cranny, Allianz chief economic adviser Mohamed El-Erian shares his insights on monetary policy, market volatility and the challenges facing central banks in a rapidly changing global economy.

Mr El-Erian discusses expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, arguing that markets continue to respond primarily to economic data rather than political narratives. He dismisses the idea that a change in Fed leadership would automatically result in an aggressive wave of cuts, emphasising that policymakers will deliver only what the data justifies.

Reflecting on the Fed’s policy framework, Mr El-Erian calls for a “major reboot” after what he describes as the central bank’s inflation misjudgment in 2021. He warns that excessive reliance on backward looking indicators risks undermining policy effectiveness and credibility.

The conversation also explores artificial intelligence as a structural economic shift rather than a passing trend, including how the UAE and the broader Gulf region are positioning themselves at the intersection of technology, capital and global competitiveness.

On AI, Mr El-Erian describes himself as “one of the biggest bulls” on its productivity potential, while cautioning that the ultimate economic impact will depend on how companies use the technology. He contrasts an automation-driven mindset focused on labour displacement with a labour-augmenting approach aimed at enhancing worker productivity, arguing that AI’s true power lies in augmentation rather than replacement.

Mr El-Erian reflects on his time as president of Queens’ College, Cambridge, describing it as the most satisfying role of his career. He highlights the privilege of witnessing students from challenging backgrounds fully embrace the opportunity of a Cambridge education and undergo visible personal transformation.

On a personal level, Mr El-Erian discusses the influence of his father, recalling two formative lessons that shaped his worldview: the enduring value of education and the importance of engaging with a broad spectrum of perspectives. He explains how being encouraged from an early age to read widely across different viewpoints helped develop his ability to interpret complex economic and market dynamics.

Asked about regrets, Mr El-Erian says he rues never having had the opportunity to serve as a true policymaker, noting that while he advised decision makers throughout his career, he never directly owned policy decisions.

In this episode of The Inside Brief, Mark Haefele, global chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, joins host Manus Cranny for a deep dive on how investors should navigate a world shaped increasingly by power, policy, and long term structural forces rather than short term market headlines.

Mr Haefele reflects on the idea that geopolitical shocks often dominate news cycles but tend to have only brief market effects, while slower moving trends such as technology, government spending, and shifts in global power have a far greater influence on long term portfolio outcomes. He explains why investors must focus on how the world actually works today, rather than relying on assumptions rooted in a past era of free markets.

The conversation explores how governments now play a more active role in directing capital and influencing outcomes, effectively picking winners and losers across sectors. Mr Haefele outlines what this means for asset allocation, sovereign debt, and currencies, cautioning investors against assuming that markets will always operate independently of political objectives.

Mr Haefele also addresses the debate around artificial intelligence and whether markets are facing a bubble. He acknowledges that many companies in the AI space do not yet generate profits and rely on continued access to funding, but argues that this alone does not indicate an imminent collapse. In his view, strong earnings from AI adjacent companies, continuing capital investment, and government support suggest the theme still has momentum, even as risks increase and not all participants succeed.

In a personal reflection, Mr Haefele recounts his experience during the events of 9/11 and how witnessing a decisive trading moment reshaped his understanding of his own strengths as an investor. He explains why recognising what you are not good at can be as important as knowing what you are, and why discipline, humility, and asset allocation matter more than trying to catch every market moment.

The episode concludes with insights from Mr Haefele’s book The New Rules of Investing, where he argues that modern investors must rethink diversification, accept uncertainty, and follow the flow of capital shaped by policy, technology, and power rather than nostalgia for past market regimes.

In this special edition of The Inside Brief from Davos 2026, Waleed Al Muhairi, deputy group chief executive of Mubadala, joins host Manus Cranny to discuss how global investors are navigating a world defined by fragmentation rather than chaos.

With more than $375 billion in assets under management, Mubadala sits at the centre of global capital flows and Mr Al Muhairi explains why long-term conviction, rather than market timing, has become the defining advantage for institutional investors.

Mr Al Muhairi explains that Mubadala’s multi-engine investment model allows capital to move purposefully across private equity, private credit, infrastructure and global partnerships, adapting risk exposure without abandoning long-term strategy.

Mr Al Muhairi also shares his highest conviction views as 2026 begins, highlighting continued opportunity in the US alongside growing allocations across Asia, including South Korea and India.

The conversation explores the evolving role of artificial intelligence in investment decision-making. Mr Al Muhairi reveals that Mubadala now has an AI participant named MAIA in its investment committee process, using counterfactual analysis to challenge assumptions and test conviction.

He describes AI as a force multiplier rather than a bubble, arguing that while valuations will fluctuate, innovation and infrastructure behind AI are only just beginning to reshape productivity.

Looking closer to home, Mr Al Muhairi reflects on Abu Dhabi’s growing momentum as a global capital hub. He describes a powerful shift as families, businesses and financial institutions increasingly relocate to the UAE, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of capital, talent and opportunity. As a long-term steward of national capital, he emphasises the responsibility of investing not only for returns, but for the next generation and the continuing growth of the UAE economy.

In this episode of The Inside Brief, chairman and group chief executive of DP World Sultan bin Sulayem sits down with host Manus Cranny to share his views on global trade and shipping at a time of geopolitical shocks, tariff wars and market volatility.

The head of the global ports operator explains why, from his perspective, physical cargo flows are far more resilient than market sentiment, and why global trade continues to grow despite persistent political uncertainty.

Mr bin Sulayem discusses how DP World approaches countries often defined by political risk − including Venezuela, Iran and Syria − by separating headlines from operational reality.

On Venezuela, Mr bin Sulayem says that DP World knows the market well from past operations and could move quickly when conditions allow. On Iran, he argues that even major regional conflicts have historically had limited impact on maritime trade.

Syria is presented as a different case as DP World has already committed $800 million to Tartus port. Mr bin Sulayem describes the country as having strong long-term potential, given its strategic location and access to regional road and rail networks.

He also reflects on his meeting with Syria's President Ahmad Al Shara, describing him as calm, optimistic and a good listener who is eager to learn and is focused on improving conditions in the country.

The conversation ranges across global growth hotspots, including India, Indonesia, Brazil and the UK, where DP World is expanding capacity. Mr bin Sulayem also argues that China’s economic management is often misunderstood in the West, stressing that scale and stability matter more than headline growth rates.

Turning to Dubai, Mr bin Sulayem reflects on the government's investment in roads, Metro expansion, and rail infrastructure such as Etihad Rail, and how the proximity between the port in Jebel Ali and Al Maktoum International Airport is expected to support future trade growth through seamless sea-to-air connectivity.

Mr bin Sulayem concludes by sharing personal insights into what success means to him, his approach to succession planning and leadership and how a life-threatening horse riding accident − in which he was saved by Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, Vice President and Ruler of Dubai − reshaped his views on time, efficiency and decision making.

In this re-run episode of The Inside Brief, Manus Cranny revisits a candid and often humorous conversation with Anthony Scaramucci, financier, media personality, and former White House communications director. Scaramucci speaks openly about how power really works, how reputations are built and damaged on the world stage, and why credibility matters to investors, allies, and institutions alike.

In this special edition of The Inside Brief recorded live on stage at the Abu Dhabi Finance Week, host Manus Cranny sits down with Dmitry Balyasny, managing partner and chief investment officer Balyasny Asset Management, which oversees more than $30 billion across multi-strategy portfolios.

In a wide-ranging conversation, Mr Balyasny discusses why his firm is expanding in Abu Dhabi and what makes it an emerging global financial centre. He also explained how technology, AI and collaboration are reshaping the future of asset management.

Mr Balyasny breaks down how his team has built 2,000 AI agents running 5,000 daily tasks, transforming productivity. He explains why AI will not replace human judgment, but will redefine how markets are analysed and decisions are made.

The conversation covers Abu Dhabi’s rise as a global financial centre, the next generation of traders and how Mr Balyasny’s team selects talent from 30,000 applicants each year. It also explores the outlook for markets in 2026, and the biggest tail risks ahead for investors.

The Inside Brief with Manus Cranny is available on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify and other major platforms.