Goldman Sachs has just reported one of its strongest and most profitable quarters on record, with more than $4 billion in revenue.

But with the Iran war reshaping the region and global recession risk rising, what are the world's leading investment banks actually thinking?

Anthony Gutman, co-chief executive of Goldman Sachs International and co-head of investment banking, joins Manus Cranny on The Inside Brief from Abu Dhabi, as one of the first senior international bankers to visit the UAE since the Iran conflict began.

In this episode, Mr Gutman shares what he found in 24 hours of back-to-back client meetings with sovereign wealth funds and corporate clients: not conversations about the macro, but requests for deal lists.

Mr Gutman addresses the disconnect between outside perceptions of the UAE and the reality on the ground, the question of long-term reputational impact on the region and why he believes damage will be limited if the conflict is resolved quickly.

He also spoke about the UAE's response to the conflict, saying leadership has done “a phenomenal job dealing with the safety and security of their people”, and that the country remains a place where people want to do business, bring their families and feel secure.

Despite the conflict, Goldman's advisory backlog remains close to record levels, with more than 20 deals of $10 billion or more executed in the first quarter alone.

On the global economy, Mr Gutman explains why Goldman's economists have set out a range of scenarios, base case to extreme, each correlated with how long the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and why the Q2 earnings season will be the defining moment.

Mr Gutman also speaks about AI and its role in driving the current M&A super cycle, how clients are learning to distinguish signal from noise in a volatile world, and what it actually takes to earn and keep a relationship at the highest levels of global finance.

In this live edition of The Inside Brief, host Manus Cranny is joined by Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, and Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, to assess the rapidly escalating conflict in the Middle East and its implications for oil markets, global growth and geopolitical stability.

Mr McNally warns that the world is adjusting to a major disruption in energy supply, with as much as 20 per cent of global energy flows affected. He argues that traditional policy responses are insufficient to offset a shock of this scale, describing the situation as a "math problem that is not solvable by the usual toolkit".

In Mr McNally's view, a resolution depends on either a ceasefire or the degradation of Iran’s military capabilities, which would allow energy flows to resume.

In the conversation, Mr Posen urges caution in interpreting the economic impact, arguing that policymakers should avoid overreacting. He emphasises that the global economy, particularly advanced economies, has shown resilience to past energy shocks. However, he highlights significant risks for emerging markets, where higher energy prices, weaker currencies and rising costs for food and fertiliser could lead to elevated inflation and economic strain.

Mr Posen also outlines how central banks are expected to respond in the near term, saying they will remain on hold while monitoring inflation expectations and allowing price signals to work through the system before taking action.

In this episode of The Inside Brief with Manus Cranny, Allianz chief economic adviser Mohamed El-Erian shares his insights on monetary policy, market volatility and the challenges facing central banks in a rapidly changing global economy.

Mr El-Erian discusses expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, arguing that markets continue to respond primarily to economic data rather than political narratives. He dismisses the idea that a change in Fed leadership would automatically result in an aggressive wave of cuts, emphasising that policymakers will deliver only what the data justifies.

Reflecting on the Fed’s policy framework, Mr El-Erian calls for a “major reboot” after what he describes as the central bank’s inflation misjudgment in 2021. He warns that excessive reliance on backward looking indicators risks undermining policy effectiveness and credibility.

The conversation also explores artificial intelligence as a structural economic shift rather than a passing trend, including how the UAE and the broader Gulf region are positioning themselves at the intersection of technology, capital and global competitiveness.

On AI, Mr El-Erian describes himself as “one of the biggest bulls” on its productivity potential, while cautioning that the ultimate economic impact will depend on how companies use the technology. He contrasts an automation-driven mindset focused on labour displacement with a labour-augmenting approach aimed at enhancing worker productivity, arguing that AI’s true power lies in augmentation rather than replacement.

Mr El-Erian reflects on his time as president of Queens’ College, Cambridge, describing it as the most satisfying role of his career. He highlights the privilege of witnessing students from challenging backgrounds fully embrace the opportunity of a Cambridge education and undergo visible personal transformation.

On a personal level, Mr El-Erian discusses the influence of his father, recalling two formative lessons that shaped his worldview: the enduring value of education and the importance of engaging with a broad spectrum of perspectives. He explains how being encouraged from an early age to read widely across different viewpoints helped develop his ability to interpret complex economic and market dynamics.

Asked about regrets, Mr El-Erian says he rues never having had the opportunity to serve as a true policymaker, noting that while he advised decision makers throughout his career, he never directly owned policy decisions.