In this episode of The Dialectic, Fair Observer’s Founder, CEO & Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh and FOI Senior Partner Glenn Carle, a retired CIA officer who now advises companies, governments and institutions on geopolitical risk, examine France’s deepening crisis and ask whether the Fifth Republic can survive it. The discussion opens with the immediate breakdown: five prime ministers in two years, Sébastien Lecornu’s 26-day stint, resignation and reappointment, a parliament unable to pass a budget for 2026 and a 6% budget deficit that pushed France into the EU’s most worrying fiscal category. Importantly, Moody’s cut France’s outlook to negative as bond markets grow wary.

Atul and Glenn trace the crisis to long running structural patterns. They map the historical arc from King Louis XIV and his finance minister Jean-Baptiste Colbert to Charles de Gaulle and the birth of the Fifth Republic, showing how a tradition of centralised state power pushes France into recurring crises. With the government controlling nearly 60% of the GDP, dirigisme — the French version of a centrally directed economy, which is quite like socialism — struggles to create a modern, dynamic economy.

To add salt to injury, French socialism is inefficient and its society is elitist. The Swedish government spends less than its French counterpart and achieves better outcomes. Unlike Sweden, France’s elite educational institutions are dominated by students from the country’s upper middle classes with very few from the working classes making it to the top. Unfortunately, France spends heavily on social services but struggles with social mobility, persistent unemployment and a talent drain. Immigrants now account for roughly 17% of the population, and rapid urban ghettoization has produced social tension, Islamic radicalization and helped the rise of the far right. France’s domestic troubles come at a time of great shifts in the international order. A resurgent Russia, a more assertive China and an unpredictable America limit France’s room for strategic autonomy. French domestic woes weaken Europe, which is looking for leadership at a time of profound geopolitical shifts. The political paralysis in Paris has also hobbled the Franco-German axis, which has been the bedrock of the EU. The episode balances realistic pessimism with cautious optimism. For all its woes, France retains nuclear deterrence, advanced defense industries, a vibrant luxury sector and deep human capital. Atul and Glenn outline policy pathways for reform and sketch scenarios in which France could experience a renaissance. Listen to this episode of The Dialectic for a clear, historically informed assessment of France at a pivotal moment.

In this episode of The Dialectic, Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh and FOI Senior Partner Glenn Carle, a retired CIA officer who now advises companies, governments and organizations on geopolitical risk, turn their attention to Germany and ask a fundamental question: What has gone wrong with the engine of Europe?

The conversation begins with Nazi Germany’s total defeat in 1945 and the country’s partition into East and West Germany. Under the American security umbrella, West Germany rebuilt itself through an export-led economic model that came to define postwar Europe. The fall of the Berlin Wall and reunification of the two Germanies brought both triumph and strain.

Atul and Glenn explore how Germany’s success story has stalled. The German economy is now struggling, its population is shrinking, its workforce is aging, and its dependence on Chinese markets and Russian energy has become a strategic weakness. German bureaucracy has become infamous, and excessive regulation is inhibiting economic activity. The country’s famed automobile industry is losing ground to Chinese electric vehicles, German innovation capacity has waned and the country is missing in the fast-growing high-tech sectors of the global economy. Meanwhile, rising immigration has caused social division and political polarization. Support for the far-right party, Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), is surging and it is now beating traditional parties in opinion polls. Clearly, Germany is in crisis.

Atul and Glenn place Germany’s crisis within a wider European story. They consider how demographic decline, economic fatigue and strategic hesitation are eroding Europe’s global influence. Germany is the EU’s economic engine. It is the heart of Europe that looks both west and east. This episode of The Dialectic asks whether Germany can renew itself in an age of global competition or whether its decline mirrors the broader malaise of Europe itself. Read About Vladimir Putin's Long Game - https://www.fairobserver.com/politics/making-sense-of-vladimir-putins-long-game/ Read About Germany's Economy - https://www.fairobserver.com/world-news/is-the-german-economy-now-destined-to-decline/