It’s the Natty, and the market is getting emotional. Everyone is on Indiana right now — full “Cigs Inside” confidence. That matters because you’re usually paying a tax when the whole world crowds one side.

The Setup

Indiana’s been the steadier team: efficient, disciplined, and not beating themselves. Miami is the opposite vibe: higher ceiling, more speed, and the ability to flip a game with one explosive or short field.

Scott’s Pick: Indiana Wins

Scott’s riding the consistency. If this stays a clean, methodical, “don’t blink” championship game, he trusts Indiana to execute and close.

Marc’s Pick: Miami Wins + Miami +8.5

Marc is fading in the public's love and taking the points with the explosive team. If the game gets weird or turns into any kind of track meet, he thinks Miami has the playmakers to steal it — and +8.5 is too much.

Mark’s Bets

• 1H Under 24: championship games often start tight — conservative scripts, nerves, field position.
  
  
• Mark Fletcher Over 68.5 rush: Miami’s best path is staying on schedule and leaning on the run early to avoid obvious passing downs.
  
  

Paths to Cash

Indiana: Stay clean, win field position, force Miami to earn every drive.
Miami: survive early, hit explosives, force Indiana to chase.

Either way — the board says Indiana. The Crazy Sheet is split.

It’s semifinal week, which means the takes get hotter, the nerves get tighter, and every “safe” number feels like a trap. Marc and Scotty break down both CFP semifinal matchups with a betting-first lens—tempo, game script, trench matchups, coaching decisions, and the one thing that always matters this time of year: how these games actually start.

Our Favorite Angle: 1st Half Unders

Both of the boys are aligned on the same vibe in both games: start slow, feel each other out, avoid the early mistake, and keep it tight through halftime. In CFP semis, you usually get a lot more chess than fireworks early—especially with elite athletes, conservative opening scripts, and coordinators playing “don’t lose” before they play “go win.”

Miami Game: Marc’s Full Game Under

Marc isn’t just living in the first half—he’s got a stronger position here: full game Under in the Miami semifinal. He likes the overall matchup to lean toward longer drives, fewer explosive plays, and the kind of red-zone stiffness that turns touchdowns into field goals. If Miami gets a lead, he expects the pace to drag even more.

Oregon: Cover… and Maybe a Live Dog

Marc’s side in the other semifinal: Oregon to cover, and he’s not ruling out a little spice—Oregon as a live dog depending on how the game opens. If the Ducks get behind early (or the market overreacts to one Indiana/Oregon punch), Marc is ready to shop a better number in-game.

Lock in, crack a cold one, and let’s get weird—semifinal week is where the books get paid… unless you stay disciplined.

It’s win-or-go-home season. Lines get tight, nerves get loud, and every coach suddenly discovers “conservative” like it’s a new religion. Marc & Scotty break down the CRP Quarterfinal slate with leans, matchups, and the kind of betting logic that sounds questionable until it cashes.

Quick Card: What the boys like

• Miami vs Ohio State — Under 41 (Marc)
  
  
• Texas Tech +2.5 — Cover (Marc & Scotty)
  
  
• Alabama — Cover / Live dog (Scotty)
  
  
• UGA -6.5 — Cover (Marc & Scotty)