Crazy Sheet: Red River Showdown, USC Upset Call & Virginia Tech’s Best-Bet Spot

Marc Atnipp and Scott Denson break down the weekend’s college football board, led by Texas–Oklahoma, Georgia–Alabama, and a divided opinion on USC’s chances at Penn State. Marc makes Virginia Tech his biggest play of the week, backs BYU’s physical advantage, and targets a defensive battle between Indiana and Nebraska.

Plus: the playoff expansion debate, the transfer portal’s effect on rivalries, and why college football fans need to rethink what one loss means.

In this episode

• Red River Rivalry: Marc backs Oklahoma +8, with both hosts expecting a close game driven by defense.
  
  
• Georgia–Alabama: Marc grabbed Georgia moneyline early. Both hosts favor the over if conditions stay dry.
  
  
• USC–Penn State: Marc calls for a USC upset; Scott questions whether Lincoln Riley can deliver on the road.
  
  
• Virginia Tech–Cal: Physicality, Cal’s injuries, and cross-country travel make the Hokies Marc’s strongest play.
  
  
• BYU–Iowa State: Marc backs BYU’s physical edge and discusses the line movement despite injury concerns.
  
  
• Indiana–Nebraska: Both hosts see a lower-scoring matchup and potential regression for the unbeaten teams.
  
  
• Weekend value: Florida State at Louisville, West Virginia at home, UCLA catching points, and Boise State at Fresno State.
  
  

Best bets from the show

Priority Pick Reasons discussed
Biggest play | Virginia Tech -10 vs. Cal | Physical advantage, bounce-back motivation, and Cal’s injuries and travel.
Official play | BYU -10 vs. Iowa State | BYU’s physicality and favorable interpretation of the line movement.
Official play | Indiana–Nebraska under 49 | Both hosts expect a defensive game with regression potential.
Official play | USC moneyline vs. Penn State | Marc believes USC has the talent to win outright. Scott disagrees.

Additional picks worth highlighting

• Florida State +3.5 at Louisville: Both hosts favor the Seminoles.
  
  
• Oklahoma +8 vs. Texas: Marc expects a tight rivalry game.
  
  
• West Virginia +3 vs. Arizona: Home-field edge and Arizona’s receiving injuries.
  
  
• Boise State -6.5 at Fresno State: Marc’s pick; Scott also expects a comfortable Boise win.
  
  
• LSU–Kentucky under 53: Marc’s earlier number; the notes report a move to 51.5.
  
  
• UCLA +11.5 vs. Oregon: Marc backs UCLA’s big-play potential.
  
  

Small-stakes play: Sam Houston +14 vs. Liberty—Marc’s “pizza money” bet. Scott leans Liberty.

Parlay idea: USC moneyline + West Virginia moneyline.

The coaching seats are heating up, the national title picture is taking shape, and this week’s betting board has Marc Atnipp and Scott Denson looking for teams they can trust.

Are Georgia and Notre Dame the two best teams in the country? Is Miami ready to join them? Can BYU’s physical offense keep rolling—and has Texas Tech earned its reputation?

Marc and Scott tackle those questions, debate Arch Manning’s ceiling, spotlight Mississippi State quarterback Kamario Taylor, and assess a Heisman race featuring Jeremiah Smith and CJ Carr. They also discuss Lincoln Riley’s future at USC, mounting pressure on Mike Locksley and Shane Beamer, and how NIL is changing roster depth across college football.

Then it’s into the games: big favorites, live underdogs, first-half totals, and weather conditions that could change the betting approach.

On this episode

• Coaching pressure: Who’s on a warm seat, who’s in real trouble, and how recruiting and buyouts influence the decisions.
  
  
• The contender tiers: Georgia and Notre Dame lead the hosts’ rankings, with Miami and BYU drawing serious attention.
  
  
• Quarterback reality checks: Arch Manning, Marcel Reed, Kamario Taylor, and the difference between managing a game and carrying a team.
  
  
• Conference chaos: A wide-open Big Ten, questions about Texas Tech, and frustration with SEC television scheduling.
  
  
• This week’s betting angles: Why Marc and Scott like BYU’s physical edge, Minnesota as a home underdog, and several unders.
  
  

Predictions and betting leans

Lines below are those discussed during the episode.

MatchupPrediction or lean
North Texas vs. Tulsa | Favor North Texas
Pittsburgh vs. Virginia Tech | First-half under 28.5 — Marc’s half-unit play
Delaware vs. Liberty | Delaware +7
Toledo vs. Ball State | Toledo -19.5
Western Michigan at Buffalo | Western Michigan -13.5
Miami (Ohio) vs. Bowling Green | Favor Miami (Ohio) -13.5
Florida State vs. Virginia | Virginia -2.5
Georgia vs. Vanderbilt | Under 51.5
Miami vs. Clemson | Miami -16.5
Notre Dame at North Carolina | Notre Dame -21
Navy vs. Air Force | Under 46.5
Tennessee vs. Auburn | Over; no specific total quoted
Michigan at Minnesota | Minnesota +5.5
UTSA vs. Rice | UTSA -11.5
Purdue vs. Illinois | Lean over 61.5
New Mexico vs. UTEP | New Mexico -22
Iowa at Ohio State | Iowa +14.5
BYU at TCU | BYU -6.5 — strong agreement from both hosts
Alabama vs. Mississippi State | Alabama -6; Scott expects Alabama to wear down State
Army vs. Louisiana Tech | Army -2.5

Watch before betting

• UCF at Houston: Marc is watching for sustained winds above 15 mph as a possible first-half under trigger.
  
  
• Alabama–Mississippi State: Weather could affect scoring with the total discussed at 59.5.
  
  
• Colorado State: Confirm the quarterback’s availability before deciding on a play.
  
  

The hosts expect a few unexpected upsets as the season moves into its crucial stretch. Listen for the reasoning behind each pick—and which favorites they believe have the physical advantage to cover.

Marc Atnipp and Scott Denson break down the Week 4 college football slate, with upset opportunities, big spreads and a few games they’d rather leave alone. The spotlight falls on Texas at Tennessee, Clemson at Cal, Texas A&M at LSU, Oklahoma at Georgia, and Oregon at USC.

Picks and leans

• Cal +1.5: Marc and Scott like Cal to beat Clemson outright.
  
  
• Tennessee +4.5: Marc backs the Vols with Arch Manning facing a road test.
  
  
• Iowa +5.5 and the Under: The Hawkeyes are their live underdog at Michigan.
  
  
• Sam Houston State +35: Marc expects an improved Sam Houston team to keep it closer against Texas Tech.
  
  
• USC +3 and the over: Both like the Trojans and points in the Oregon–USC matchup.
  
  
• Georgia and the under: Their preferred angles against Oklahoma.
  
  
• Ole Miss–Florida: Scott takes Ole Miss; Marc favors Florida to win.
  
  
• Late-night picks: Scott likes Minnesota +9.5 and Boise State -6.5. Marc and Scott also expect New Mexico to win big against New Mexico State.
  
  

Games to watch

Can Texas A&M stay within the number at LSU? Is Louisville vulnerable to a letdown against Wake Forest? The hosts also weigh Northwestern +21 against Indiana, Illinois +26.5 against Ohio State, and a service academy teaser involving Army and Navy. Tune in for the reasoning behind the picks and the games that could shake up Week 4.